Thursday, August 31
Week 11 previews



Week 11 at a glance | Game of the Week | Sunday night | Monday night

Saints (2-7) at Jaguars (8-1)
8:20 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Jaguars by 12½
Preview | War Room preview | Baxter's bits

Joe Theismann's Sunday night spotlight
Inside the Playbook: Ricky Williams hits the jab

Jimmy Smith
Jimmy Smith will try to provide a spark for the Jags' slumping offense.

Why to watch:
Tom Coughlin said he was "frustrated, disappointed and embarrassed." And that was after his Jaguars won a game last week. Still, Jacksonville's offensive woes have become a major cause for concern for Coughlin's team. Just when the Jags thought they might have had things figured out, Fred Taylor was sidelined again with a hamstring problem, and the offense came to a screeching halt (132 total yards) in a 6-3 victory over Baltimore.

Taylor is questionable for Sunday night's game, but Coughlin says he will work on finding new ways to spark the offense without the versatile second-year running back. Jacksonville, which owns the best record in the NFL, plays only two more teams with winning records (the Steelers and Titans), so the Jags have plenty of time to get all their offensive talent on the same page for the postseason. And despite all the talk about their punchless attack, the Jags have scored more points (216) than every AFC team but the Colts (250).

The major bright spot in northeast Florida has been the Jaguars defense. Jacksonville has allowed just 79 points, which is well on pace to break the 1986 Bears' record of giving up just 187 points in a 16-game season. The Jags also have collected a league-high 39 sacks, which is slightly behind the pace needed to break the 1984 Bears' single-season record of 72.

Oh yeah, we almost forgot that there's another team in this game. The Saints finally end a seven-game losing streak with a 24-6 rout of the 49ers last week -- the biggest margin of victory ever for New Orleans in the series. It also broke the longest skid of Mike Ditka's coaching career. The Saints have made a habit of playing teams close, only to blow the lead in the fourth quarter.

The spotlight will be shining on Saints rookie running back Ricky Williams, who will be playing the first nationally televised game of his NFL career. Over the last four weeks, Williams is averaging 27 carries per game, and he also has gained 107.5 yards per game in that span. Look for Ditka to ride the Heisman winner early and often -- even though the Jags are allowing a mere 86 yards on the ground per game.

Who to watch:
When Ditka isn't giving the ball to Williams, Saints QB Billy Joe Tolliver will be the man throwing it. Tolliver ran for two TDs and threw for another against the Niners, causing Ditka to say the journeyman QB "gives us the best chance to win." Tolliver threw just 15 times against San Francisco, but he averaged 20.2 yards per completions. Saints WRs Keith Poole and Eddie Kennison might struggle to get open against Jaguars CBs Aaron Beasley and Fernando Bryant.

Saints CB Ashley Ambrose (four INTs and two fumble recoveries) leads a decent New Orleans pass defense that ranks seventh in the NFL. That could make life tough on Jaguars QB Mark Brunell, who has thrown just eight TD passes in his nine starts. Jaguars WR Jimmy Smith ranks third in the AFC with 56 catches, but he has reached the end zone only three times. Jaguars RB James Stewart has rushed for 532 yards, but the offense doesn't show the same spark with him in the backfield in place of Taylor. Stewart also is banged up, so look for backup RB Stacey Mack to get some carries.

INJURY REPORT
Saints: OUT: LB Ink Aleaga (knee); G Wally Williams (neck). DOUBTFUL: LB Chris Bordano (ankle); CB Tyronne Drakeford (shoulder); DE Jared Tomich (ankle). QUESTIONABLE: TE Cam Cleeland (hamstring); LB Mark Fields (back); G Chris Naeole (knee). PROBABLE: CB Alex Molden (calf); DE Troy Wilson (shoulder).

Jaguars: OUT: G Rich Tylski (foot). QUESTIONABLE: S Donovin Darius (knee); RB Chris Howard (knee); DE Joel Smeenge (groin); RB Fred Taylor (hamstring); WR Alvis Whitted (knee). PROBABLE: DE Tony Brackens (knee); DT Larry Smith (ankle).

Three Jaguars have collected at least seven sacks -- LB Kevin Hardy (7½) and DT Gary Walker and DE Tony Brackens (seven apiece). Saints' Pro Bowl LT Willie Roaf will try to contain Brackens in a terrific battle in the trenches.

Saints' numbers to know:
Tolliver has thrown twice as many interceptions (10) as TD passes (five). The Saints' other QB, Billy Joe Hobert, has the opposite ratio with six TD passes and only three picks. Despite Tolliver's numbers, the Saints are only minus-1 in turnover ratio with 20 takeaways and 21 giveaways.

Jaguars' numbers to know:
Jacksonville has allowed double digits in scoring in just three of nine games and has not surrendered more than 10 points in any of its last six games. Not coincidentally, the Jags are on a six-game winning streak.

What it means:
The Jaguars are one game up on the Titans in the AFC Central and also a game ahead of the other contenders in the race for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Jacksonville is looking not only to maintain those advantages, but to work out some major kinks as December approaches.

The Saints are simply playing out the string, but Williams might feel he has something to prove on the national stage. The Heisman winner has yet to score his first NFL touchdown, and his NCAA career rushing record was broken last weekend. Ditka will give him every opportunity to make a statement.

Sean Salisbury's breakdown
Saints' game plan:
Williams probably will carry the ball 40 times. Tolliver did a good job filling in last week, moving around and making plays against the 49ers. But the key for the Saints, with their lack of weapons, is that they have to run the ball early and establish the ground game. They need to hand the ball to Williams and hope to get in short-yardage situations. That is easier said than done against the Jacksonville defense.

The Saints need to control the ball, but also make a few big plays because it will be hard to go 80 yards five times in the game and have the patience and wherewithal to excel at it. They must win on first down.

Right now, the Saints defense must stop the Jacksonville running game and make Brunell beat them. The Jaguars passing game is so out of rhythm that if the Saints stop the run, they might have a chance. Expect the Saints to focus on containing the run while not selling out against the Jags offense. They need to play the Jaguars straight up or they could get burned. The Saints will play a lot of different zones and mixed coverage, but they won't blitz on every down because they can get exposed on the outside against Smith and Keenan McCardell.

Jaguars' game plan:
The Jags are 8-1, but they haven't played great offensively. I expect the Jaguars to bust out eventually. The key is for Brunell to get his rhythm back. He needs to start feeling comfortable again. They have a playmaker at every position. Taylor is bothered by the hamstring injury, which hurts the Jaguars outside speed. But they can run a lot of misdirection play-action. Brunell can take care of the perimeter game and enable the Jaguars to still run the ball inside. They must get Brunell feeling good about himself in the first quarter. If they let the Saints hang around, they could beat the Jaguars. They need to jump out early.

The Jaguars defense will concentrate on shutting down the run completely. They will play a lot of single coverage outside and run a lot of zone blitzes to force the Saints into three-and-out on every series. The Jaguars will be willing to risk a big play outside to stop Williams. The Jaguars are so stout and sound with Brackens and Hardy, and a strong secondary with Carnell Lake. They will make the Saints beat them with Tolliver's passing.

Pivotal Player:
Brunell. Maybe it's the play-calling or he's not in sync with Tom Coughlin, but he hasn't played as well as he had in the past. He needs to regain his confidence and start pulling the trigger and playing like the Brunell we all know.






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