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 Sunday, November 21
Saints march into a mismatch
 
By Joe Theismann
Special to ESPN.com

 Of all the games we have done this season on ESPN, this one between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New Orleans Saints is probably the biggest mismatch.

Ricky Williams
Ricky Williams has yet to rush for his first NFL touchdown.
The Saints have struggled to find an identity. Mike Ditka, however, is trying to develop a personality for his team with a strong commitment to running the ball with Ricky Williams. Ditka mortgaged the house for one player and, since taking over the play-calling, Iron Mike seems determined to get every penny out of his rookie running back.

Williams has carried the ball 197 times (sixth in the league). The Saints offense is built around running the football first, and then trying to take shots down the field. But if they get down early in a game, they have big problems. Their offense has been very inconsistent, the main problem stemming from the lack of a healthy quarterback. They want Billy Joe Hobert to be the starter, but Billy Joe Tolliver has come in and done the job in a backup role.

The Saints lack key people on defense, mostly due to injuries. This week, they will be without defensive end Jared Tomich and middle linebacker Chris Bordano, while linebacker Mark Fields is still questionable. They have already lost Pro Bowl defensive end Joe Johnson for the season.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville's defense continues to get better and better. It's now tied with Baltimore as the No. 1 defense in football, an amazing feat considering it is the first year they have played in Dom Capers' blitzing scheme. That tells you how good a coach Capers is. Everybody likes to focus on that major offseason free-agent move, that one player a team acquires to make a difference. We tend to forget about coaches. For the Jaguars, the best free-agent pickup was Capers, who has transformed a unit ranked 25th last year into the best in football.

The only personnel changes they made were the additions of safety Carnell Lake and rookie cornerback Fernando Bryant. Lake brought experience to the Jaguars' secondary. Plus, he played cornerback in Pittsburgh. Now when a team plays three wideouts, Lake can stay on the field and play the third corner position.

Offensively, the Jaguars have started to get Jimmy Smith more involved in the offense, but they only scored six points against Baltimore. Now Fred Taylor is questionable again with a hamstring injury, and James Stewart is nicked up. So, I think Tom Coughlin, who has taken a conservative approach, might want to open up the offense against the Saints.

Here are the keys to Sunday night's matchup for both teams:

New Orleans Saints
1. Keep the game close: The Saints can't let the game get out of control. They lack the offensive firepower to make up a large deficit. New Orleans can't expect Tolliver to take snaps from center with a 17-point deficit, trying to throw against the Jaguars defense that has registered 13 sacks over the last two weeks.

2. Run Ricky: It's important to establish the ground game with Williams, but how effective will he be against the No. 1 defense? How many yards will he get? Still, the Saints have to run Williams, play for field position and hope and pray the Jaguars don't get a big lead, which would force the offense to not make a mistake.

3. Shut down the pass: If the Jaguars wants to run the ball, that would be the best thing to happen to New Orleans. Let the Jags run 40 times and score only 14 or 17 points, as opposed to throwing the ball and scoring as many as two touchdowns more. If the Jaguars score into the 20s, New Orleans won't catch them. So, limiting Smith, Keenan McCardell and Mark Brunell is critical to the Saints. Last week's game against Baltimore would be a great piece of film for the Saints to study. It couldn't have happened at a better time for a team that really can't score. The most points the Saints scored were the 24 they had last week against the 49ers. They have only scored in the 20s three times, twice against the poor San Francisco defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars
1. Early lead: The Jaguars proved last week that they're vulnerable if they allow a team to stay in the game long enough. Jacksonville needs to score the way it is capable of scoring. If the Jaguars keep the Saints in the game, they could lose it on a big play.

2. Open up the offense: Brunell completed 20 of 29 passes last week, but for only 118 yards. The Jags got catches, but for only a few yards. I really think the Jaguars miss tight end Pete Mitchell. Nobody has said that, but I think that's a big difference in their offense from last year to this year. I don't think they feel they have a reliable tight end to catch the ball. Kyle Brady is basically an offensive tackle playing tight end, a big blocker. They don't have three effective receivers on the field like they had before.

Tavian Banks was used as a third receiver in the slot. Now he's hurt, and they are really stuck. Outside, McCardell is averaging less than 10 yards a reception and Smith only 12.5. With the skill they have, the Jaguars need to be attacking more down the field.

3. Win on first down: If the Jaguars defense shuts down Williams on first down, they will force the Saints into long-yardage situations, which would make it open season for the Jaguars on Tolliver. Capers' blitzing scheme can really wreak havoc if the Saints are forced into known passing situations.

Former NFL quarterback Joe Theismann works as a game analyst for ESPN's Sunday Night Football. He breaks down the Sunday night matchup every week for ESPN.com.

 


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