COMMUNITY
 Letters to Editor
Send a letter
BACKSTAGE
 The Magazine
ESPN Radio


 ALSO SEE
Joe Theismann's Sunday night spotlight

Playbook: Saints' I right 20 jab

Week 11 previews

War Room: Week 11 previews

War Room: Week 11 player reports

Jaguars misfiring again

Week 11 injury report

Week 11 picks



 ESPN.com
NFL

COLLEGE FB

NBA

NHL

M COLLEGE BB

W COLLEGE BB

GOLF ONLINE

BASEBALL

SOCCER

EXTREME SPORTS


Thursday, November 18
War Room: Saints at Jaguars


New Orleans offense vs. Jacksonville defense
SAINTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 8
Pass 15
Tot. Yds. 12
Scoring 23
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 14
   
JAGUARS
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 6
vs. Pass 3
Total yds. allowed 2
# of Ints. 13
# of Sacks 39
Turnover differential +10
Saints QB Billy Joe Tolliver had a solid game last weekend against the 49ers, going 12 of 15 for 242 yards and a touchdown. Tolliver was efficient and spread the ball around, completing passes to six different receivers on the day. He also displayed mobility that had been sorely lacking from New Orleans' offense over the first nine weeks of the season, carrying the ball 6 times for 36 yards. RB Ricky Williams continued his solid workhorse-like season with a 30 carry, 99-yard effort.

All in all, it was a solid, albeit unspectacular performance by the New Orleans offense, but a marked improvement over weeks past. Things will not come so easily for the Saints this week, as they face off against a Jaguar unit that is number one in the league in scoring defense and sacks and number two in total yardage.

The yards will not come easy for Williams in this game, so Tolliver should look to spread the ball around. WR Keith Poole has been the big play guy for the Saints this season, and is the only outside deep threat on the team. Tolliver needs to look for Poole downfield early in the game to stretch the defense and loosen things up for Ricky Williams.

The Jaguar defense has been nothing short of stellar this season. The Jags have allowed an average of 8.8 points per game, five points less than any other team in the league. The Saints have the 23rd ranked scoring offense in the league, so don't expect Jacksonville defensive coordinator Dom Capers to try anything fancy in this game.

Jacksonville will try to keep Saints RB Williams bottled up by forcing him to run laterally. It's when Williams squares his shoulders and turns it upfield that he can be dangerous. Jaguar DE's Joel Smeenge and Tony Brackens will try to get off their blocks and string Williams out to the sidelines where OLB's Kevin Hardy and Bryce Paup can make plays. LOLB Paup is aging and can be a liability against the run, so if New Orleans is going to be successful running the football, it will be to the right and away from the Pro-Bowl bound Brackens and Hardy. Brackens and Hardy also create match-up problems for the Saints in passing situations. Brackens is good enough to give New Orleans LOT Willie Roaf problems, and as Hardy is coming from the same side, the Saints may have to use an extra tight end or running back to get him blocked, which takes away options for Tolliver.

Jacksonville offense vs. New Orleans defense
JAGUARS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 4
Pass 23
Tot. Yds. 14
Scoring 5
Int's allowed 4
Sacks allowed 18
   
SAINTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 17
vs. Pass 7
Total yds. allowed 9
# of Ints. 8
# of Sacks 28
Turnover differential -12
The Jaguars appear to be a different offensive football team when RB Fred Taylor is healthy. Taylor brings big play ability to the Jacksonville offense and at the same time opens up the field for QB Mark Brunell and WRs Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell.

If Taylor is not healthy this weekend, RB James Stewart will have to carry the load. Stewart is a solid back, particularly near goal line, but he lacks the explosiveness of a Taylor and is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry -- compared to Taylor's 4.6. The Saints have a solid front four, so running the ball is not a foregone conclusion for the Jaguars.

Last week, QB Brunell completed 20 passes, but for a total of 118 yards. The Jaguars as a team had only 132 yards for the game. What has been lacking this year in Jacksonville's offense is the ability to throw the deep ball, something that has been a part of the Jaguars' arsenal with regularity over the past two seasons. Also missing is a consistent receiving threat at TE. While Kyle Brady has been a nice addition -- he blocks like a third tackle -- he lacks the speed to separate from linebackers and is not consistently available as an outlet for Brunell the way his predecessor, Pete Mitchell was.

The Saints' defense has been respectable this season, despite suffering through a rash of injuries to key players. New Orleans ranks ninth in the NFL in total yards against, and has sacked opposing QB's 28 times so far this season, sixth best in the league.

DE Brady Smith has been a key player in New Orleans' defensive schemes. Filling in for injured Pro-Bowler Joe Johnson, Smith has five sacks and has been a force defending the run as well. Smith will be challenged this week, as he will line up over Jacksonville's LOT Tony Boselli -- probably the best tackle in the NFL. Boselli has the size to handle bull rushers and the feet to neutralize edge rushers, as well as the ability to dominate opposing defensive ends at the point of attack when the Jags run the football.

Boselli will try to manhandle Smith and ROLB Mark Fields, who is still recovering from a bulging disc in his lower back. This means that New Orleans' safeties, Sammy Knight and Willie Clay, will have to be sound tacklers when they come up to support the run. RDT Laroi Glover needs to have a big game for the Saints. If he takes away Jacksonville's ability to run between the tackles, it will force James Stewart to run outside. Stewart is more of a north / south runner and is not as effective when he is forced to bounce plays outside.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category NO JAC
Punt return avg. 19 17
Kickoff return avg. 26 31
Opp. punt return avg. 2 12
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 18 26
Time of possession 9 1
New Orleans PR/WR Eddie Kennison represents in a nutshell, the Saints return units this season -- a disappointment. Kennison averages just over eight yards per return and has not broken anything longer than an 18 yarder this entire season. The kick return game has been no better, with the longest kick return this season going for 35 yards. A team like the Saints, one that has been so woeful offensively, needs to have a solid return game to have a chance to stay with teams like the Jags. Last week, Jacksonville P Bryan Barker had a huge day, with eight of his punts downed inside the Ravens' 20-yard line. Barker kept the Jags pegged to the lead on a day when the offense couldn't do anything.

Key matchups
  • Saints RB Ricky Williams vs. Jaguars defensive front seven
    If you can stop Williams, you have an excellent chance of stopping the Saints. The Jags 34-blitz package will load up versus the inside run and will come from a lot of different directions. If the Saints can't block it, which is unlikely, Williams will have a long day.

  • Jaguars inside run game vs. Saints defensive front seven
    Jacksonville is a little bit beat up at RB and even if Fred Taylor plays, he is not 100% with a sore hamstring. Whoever is running the football (James Stewart or Fred Taylor) must get the benefit of good blocking up-front from the Jaguar OL. If Jacksonville runs the ball early, the Saints will have to defend it, which will open up plays in the passing game.

  • Jaguars OLB Kevin Hardy vs. Saints QB Billy Joe Tolliver
    Hardy is developing into a terror as a pass rusher, as he comes from a lot of different angles. The Saints may have to leave a back in to pick him up on the blitz. If Hardy comes free, he could get some big hits on Saints' QB Billy Joe Tolliver.

    New Orleans will win if...
  • RB Ricky Williams has a huge day and gives the Saints an edge in time of possession. The only way to beat Jacksonville is to limit their offensive possessions and control the clock. Williams must have a 30+ carry, 100+ yard day to give the Saints a chance to stay competitive. They cannot match Jacksonville in a wide-open offensive game.

  • They can play bend, but don't break defense and not give up big plays. Jacksonville loves to go vertical in the passing game and loosen up a defense, which opens up the run game. The Saints must force them to drive the length of the field and hopefully force them into field goals in the red zone rather than TD's. If Jacksonville scores quickly, the Saints are in big trouble.

  • Their offensive line can pick up the Jaguars 34 blitz. Under new defensive coordinator Dom Capers, the Jaguars are attacking from every angle and they will likely load up versus Ricky Williams and the run game with little respect for the Saints passing game. New Orleans must pick up the blitz and exploit holes in the defense by Jacksonville's attacking and gambling front-seven.

    Jacksonville will win if...

  • Their defense neutralizes RB Ricky Williams and the Saints are forced to throw the football. Beating New Orleans is a very simple gameplan. Load up on defense to stop the run and invite the Saints to throw the football. The Jaguars will blitz from every conceivable angle and it may be a nightmare blocking day for the Saints. Jacksonville should control this game at the line of scrimmage.

  • They score early and force the Saints to play catch-up. New Orleans is not match in a wide-open offensive game and Jacksonville will likely attack the Saints corners early with Smith and McCardell running their favorite go routes. The Saints do not want to abort their gameplan and throw the football early.

  • They play fundamental football and don't get careless. New Orleans cannot play with the Jaguars unless Jacksonville gets sloppy and doesn't execute. The Jags must take care of the football, must convert in the red zone, and not let the gritty Saints hang around in this one where they have a chance to win in the fourth quarter.

    The War Room edge
    The Jaguars may have gotten their wake up call last weekend in their very lethargic win at home over Baltimore. The Saints are tough and will fight you, but they cannot compete with the speed and athleticism of Jacksonville, especially at the skill positions. The Jags will load up on defense to stop RB Ricky Williams, and their passing game will get back on track. This one shouldn't be close.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


  •   ESPN INSIDER
    Copyright 1995-99 ESPN/Starwave Partners d/b/a ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form. ESPN.com Privacy Policy. Use of this site signifies your agreement to the Terms of Service.