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Wednesday, December 1
War Room: Raiders at Broncos


Oakland offense vs. Denver defense
RAIDERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 3
Pass 11
Tot. Yds. 5
Scoring 14
Int's allowed 6
Sacks allowed 27
   
BRONCOS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 14
vs. Pass 9
Total yds. allowed 8
# of Ints. 11
# of Sacks 30
Turnover differential -17
The determining factor in the Raiders' fortunes is offensive balance. With QB Rich Gannon and RB Tyrone Wheatley on the mend, coach Jon Gruden's club will be very difficult for the Broncos to game plan against.

In last week's win over San Diego, Gannon logged his most efficient game of the season, completing 18-of-24 passes for 254 yards and four touchdowns. With his wrist no longer an issue, Gannon is able make plays without having to protect himself, especially in roll-out and escape situations. In the Week 5 meeting against the Broncos, Gannon rallied his team in the second-half but an interception cost them a chance for a late win. Gannon spread the ball around to ten different receivers in that meeting but look for the Raiders to have a more narrow focus on Monday night.

Over the past four weeks, Oakland has run their passing game almost exclusively through WR Tim Brown. Although they can't ignore Brown, the Raiders must make WR James Jett and TE Rickey Dudley more integral parts of the offense. Last Sunday, Seattle's Joey Galloway beat FS George Coghill for a couple of big plays so look for the Raiders to use motion and formation variation to get Jett locked on the new starter. Coghill will make his first start this week in place of leading tackler Eric Brown, who went down against Seattle with a sprained knee.

The Raiders used WR/DC Charles Woodson on four offensive plays against the Chargers and he was impressive turning a short hitch route into a 19-yard gain. Offensive coordinator Bill Callahan must make sure not to let Woodson's talent distract him from his normal game plan. Last week, a fake reverse to Woodson inside the 10-yard line resulted in a sack that would have been costly had the game been more competitive.

Expect the Raiders to add a new wrinkle this week when they implement a three-receiver set featuring Woodson, Brown, and Jett. With Coghill manning the deep third of the field, the Raiders would be wise to run as many long routes as possible to take advantage of his marginal instincts in coverage.

Regardless of how well Gannon is playing, the Raiders will continue to hammer the ball inside with Wheatley. Denver, led by Al Wilson's team-high nine tackles, held Oakland to just 55 yards on 24 carries (2.3 avg.) six weeks ago. If Wheatley continues to run as hard as he did last Sunday, it should cause the Broncos to pinch inside, which in turn creates room on the edges for Napoleon Kaufman to break outside.

The Broncos must be aware of Wheatley slipping out into the flat, as he did on two touchdown receptions against San Diego. The Chargers had difficulty bringing him down once he was in the open field because their OLB's did not diagnose the play quick enough. Defensive coordinator Greg Robinson must stress communication among his front seven on Sunday to prevent the same thing happening to his unit.

Denver offense vs. Oakland defense
BRONCOS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 16
Pass 9
Tot. Yds. 11
Scoring 16
Int's allowed 12
Sacks allowed 22
   
RAIDERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 7
vs. Pass 25
Total yds. allowed 13
# of Ints. 13
# of Sacks 26
Turnover differential -3
The Broncos announced early in the week that QB Chris Miller would make his third consecutive start in place of injured Brian Griese. Miller played with great intensity last week and proved how dangerous he can be when he gets into a rhythm, completing 14 passes in a row at one point against a formidable Seahawks secondary.

A big concern for the Broncos heading into Monday's game is the health of OT's Matt Lepsis and Trey Teague, who each suffered knee injuries against Seattle. The Broncos will be fine if one of the two can play because the team is confident that 11-year veteran Melvin Tuten can carry out most assignments.

Unlike the last meeting, Oakland should be able to generate a strong pass rush against this banged up unit, especially off the edges with DE's Lance Johnstone and Tony Bryant, who have combined for 8.5 sacks. The Raiders have been putting consistent heat on the quarterback but they need to start finishing with sacks -- something they have had trouble doing of late. If he is pressured, Miller has enough awareness and mobility to improvise outside the pocket.

Miller's go-to guy the past two weeks has been WR Rod Smith, who led the team with seven receptions and a touchdown in Week 5. Smith and Ed McCaffrey have been very consistent but this team desperately needs to get a third receiver involved, particularly TE Byron Chamberlain. Miller has yet to throw Chamberlain's way but he will be forced to go underneath if the Raiders get people in his face. MLB Greg Biekert, who appeared lost in coverage earlier in the season, is beginning to play much more consistently over the tight end and should provide a good test for Chamberlain.

Defensive coordinator Willie Shaw does an excellent job of preparing his unit for any scenario, as witnessed by their outstanding effort in RB Olandis Gary's first start. At that time, Gary would have snuck up on a lot of teams but the Raiders held him to just 64 yards on 20 carries -- his lowest yardage output of the season. Oakland's run defense is playing its best football of the season, holding teams to just 86.1 points per game. Aside from Miller, the rest of the Broncos totaled only 67 yards on the ground against Seattle because the offensive line was simply were getting beat at the point of attack.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category OAK DEN
Punt return avg. 8 29
Kickoff return avg. 24 8
Opp. punt return avg. 29 30
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 22 13
Time of possession 3 12
The Broncos desperately need RS Chris Watson, who had a 51-yard kickoff return in Week 5 against the Raiders, to start producing some big plays in order to give the offense a shorter field from which to operate. Watson returned just one punt for two yards last week and he should find some success against the Raiders underachieving coverage teams. Oakland would be wise to activate former starting LB K.D. Williams to bolster these units. Ex-Bronco RS Darrien Gordon burned his old team with a 78-yard punt return in the last meeting and should be comfortable fielding the ball in Mile High's thin air. Oakland PK Michael Husted, who is 13-of-19 on the season, missed a 39-yard attempt last week. Not good news for Gruden if this one stays close.

Key matchups
  • Oakland RDC Charles Woodson vs. Denver WR Ed McCaffrey
    Last week, Woodson opened some eyes with his first career reception but his top priority on Sunday will be containing Denver's most dangerous weapon. McCaffrey continues to make big plays for this offense when it needs him most.

  • Denver FS George Coghill vs. Oakland RB Tyrone Wheatley
    Wheatley ran over people once he broke into the Chargers' secondary last week, which puts pressure on Coghill to make plays. Coghill had some breakdowns last week in place of Eric Brown, who is out with a sprained knee.

  • Denver OLB Bill Romanowski vs. Oakland TE Rickey Dudley
    Dudley broke free for two red-zone scores last week but Romanowski is much better over the tight end than San Diego's Lew Bush. Dudley now must concentrate on getting open in third down situations.

    Oakland will win if...
  • They can maintain good balance offensively. Jon Gruden's offense put together their first complete game against San Diego and they'll need a similar effort this week against solid Broncos defense. LOT Mo Collins' return has ignited the running game and Darryl Ashmore's play at right guard in place of Gennaro DiNapoli has been strong. Denver held Ricky Watters to just 29 yards last week but they couldn't stop the pass when they needed to.

  • They can make a couple of big plays in the passing game. Denver has been playing more zone defense this season and they must be sure in their coverage responsibilities. OLB Glen Cadrez was out of position on one of the Seahawks' touchdown passes a week ago so look for the Raiders to run their receivers down the seams of the zone.

  • They play strong defense up the middle. Denver RB Olandis Gary is a classic north-south runner that likes to bang between the tackles, which means DTs Maryland and Russell must get good penetration and force him outside. Oakland held Gary to just 64 yards in their Week 5 loss.

    Denver will win if...

  • They can get consistent pressure on QB Gannon. The first time these two teams met, Denver sacked Gannon a season-high six times. Gannon is capable of beating opponents with his feet, which means the Broncos must get good containment from their DE's and a solid push from DTs Pryce and Traylor.

  • RB's Gary and Griffith can make a difference in the passing game. Oakland rookie OLB Sam Sword made his first start a week ago and his marginal speed should make him a target in the short passing game. Look for the Broncos to run an inordinate amount of screens to slow down the Raiders pass rush and test Sword.

  • They get big games from DCs Crockett and Carter. The injury to FS Brown hurts this team in deep coverage because Coghill was slow to provide help. Crockett and Carter must contain a hot Tim Brown and speedster James Jett, who had just 70 yards combined in the first meeting between these teams.

    The War Room edge
    Oakland wants revenge for their 16-13 loss at home in Week 5 but it will be tough getting a win at Mile High. Chris Miller will start again for the Broncos and they need his emotional lift to pull this one out. Denver overcame the loss of TE Shannon Sharpe in their previous battle but the injuries will be too much to overcome in the rematch. Jon Gruden has his team headed in the right direction. There won't be a late-season collapse in Oakland this season.

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    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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