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| Monday, February 25 Yes Virginia, we all make mistakes By Joe Lunardi Special to ESPN.com |
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It would be easy to sit here with a you-know-what kind of grin, resting on the laurels of successfully identifying the most overrated teams in the land. But that would be unfair for two reasons:
1. Virginia fans are suffering enough. The difference between a fan and a real bracketologist, however, is not the ability to extend an olive branch. It is instead the ability to spot trends before they become obvious, to recognize equally those teams which are better than the general basketball public thinks as well as those that are not. The difference in a nutshell is, a month or less ago, Virginia fans probably thought their team was still a Final Four contender, whereas I thought the Cavs would struggle to even reach the NCAA Tournament. All this proves is that (for the second year in a row) I was right about Virginia. But it also proves I was once wrong about Virginia. Huh? Some of you may recall that we did a preseason bracket this year for the first time. And, as I tend to overdose on objectivity at the expense of humility come Selection Sunday, I thought it wise to bow before the basketball gods and review the top quarter of those projections for accuracy. Here were the projected No. 1 seeds on Nov. 15, followed by comment(s) on their current bracket prospects:
We did a little better with three of the four projected No. 2 seeds:
The third time has not been a charm for our No. 3s:
Last and mostly least, the projected No. 4s:
What does all this mean? I would suggest two separate conclusions: 1. Parity has never been greater in college basketball. I won't have the time to confirm it until the off-season, but I doubt most years would be this far off the mark in terms of preseason forecasts. The game is now just too unpredictable to judge all but a handful of teams "on paper." 2. We continue to base too much of Season B predictions on the results of Season A (and, in particular, the NCAA Tournament results of Season A). Just because a Georgetown can get past Hampton and into the Sweet 16, for instance, doesn't mean the Hoyas are a lock to return. Georgetown was a No. 10 seed last year for a reason, and those 30 games are a better measuring stick than two or three in March. So cheer up, Virginia, you're in good company. Joe Lunardi is the resident Bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. He is also editor and publisher of www.bracketology.net. Write to Joe at jlunardi@home.com. |
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Gamenight
