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Here it comes. The dreaded "B" word. With Selection Sunday less than four weeks away, we'll be bombarded by more of these than Jerry Tarkanian has towels.
Speaking of Tark, he's as good a place to start as any. His team is one. And so are at least two dozen more.
|  | | Look close at Missouri's profile and it's clear that Kareem Rush and the Tigers still have plenty of work to do. |
Yes, ladies and gentlemen. The B-U-B-B-L-E is back (Fresno State included). NCAA pretenders need not apply.
Who are this season's real bubble teams? What makes them so? And why do we refer to the selection process this way?
You've come to the right place. Here in downtown Bracketville, we lie awake at night thinking up answers to these very questions.
I believe there are three categories of bubble teams. Let's break them down:
Middling Majors: Historically, these were the first teams labeled with the "B" word. We're talking about the at-or-near .500 schools in the major conferences. The teams whose NCAA lives seem to be at stake every time they take the floor. Soon to be followed by a make-or-break conference tournament game. Throw in an embattled coach for good measure, and you've got the classic bubble team.
Mid-Major Mania: These teams generate more and more attention each season. They roll up an impressive non-conference record, usually with a big-name upset or two, and capture the fancy of the viewing public. Then they get into conference play, confronted by frequent obstacles known as small gyms and arch-rivals. Only one question matters: "Can they get in without winning their conference tournament?"
Poll Frauds: My personal favorite. In fact, we may have invented this category. I just love the teams who think they have nothing to worry about, but whose NCAA profile is seriously lacking. The pollsters add to the false optimism by touting these teams as if they've really accomplished something. But we know better. And it's worth noting that these teams, when the reach they dance, are often the first upset victims.
The bottom line, of course, is that they are almost always more NCAA-caliber teams than there are at-large slots. Experience tells me that, come Championship Week, the real "bubble" will shrink to about 10-12 teams battling for 3-4 bracket positions. By Selection Sunday, those numbers will be even smaller. The committee has been known to spend more time on the last team or two than the rest of the field combined.
How does it look for March 2002? Let's revisit the bubble categories:
Middling Majors
Good to very good chance for at-large selection: Illinois, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, Texas Tech, South Florida.
Should study the new NIT bracket: St. John's, Charlotte, Georgetown, New Mexico, BYU, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Villanova, Louisville, Arizona State.
Right place, right time: Notre Dame, North Carolina State, Minnesota, Tulsa.
Mid-Major Mania
Good chance of selection without winning conference tourney: Gonzaga (very good chance), Pepperdine, Western Kentucky, Hawaii, Kent State, Utah State, Ball State.
Poor chance of at-large selection: Southern Illinois, Butler, UNC-Wilmington, Creighton.
No chance without an automatic bid: Valparaiso, Bowling Green, Central Connecticut, Hampton.
Poll Frauds
Still in excellent tourney shape: Stanford, Syracuse.
Not nearly as good as they think: Virginia, Southern Cal, Memphis, Missouri, Wyoming.
Overrated but recovering: Michigan State, Boston College, Fresno State, Saint Joseph's.
Toast: Iowa.
Keep those cards and letters coming! And, if you don't like where your team sits this week, not to worry. The bubble is like the weather. Wait a few hours, and it will change!
Joe Lunardi is the resident Bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. He is also editor and publisher of www.bracketology.net. Write to Joe at jlunardi@home.com.
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Gamenight
