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Monday, January 21
 
Geographically speaking on Selection Sunday

By Joe Lunardi
Special to ESPN.com

The biggest question on Selection Sunday is always: "Who?" This year, the second-biggest question -- "Where?" -- will generate a nearly equal amount of discussion and debate.

The so-called "regionalization" of the NCAA Tournament came with a summer announcement by the men's basketball committee that the eight first/second round sites would no longer be designated to a specific region. The idea is to give the committee added flexibility in keeping teams closer to home in these early rounds.

For example, this year's opening round games in Albuquerque are no longer certain to send the two double winners at that site to the West Regional in San Jose. It works the same way on the other side of the country. Opening weekend winners in Pittsburgh, for instance, will not necessarily move on to the East Regional in Syracuse.

The end result is the creation of 16 floating "quads" of four teams each. The highest seed in each quad will drive the geographic placement of that grouping for the first and second rounds. All bets are off in terms of travel for the second weekend. But the pool of potentially inconvenienced teams (and their fans) drops from 64 to 16 by that stage of the tournament.

The NCAA has released a revised version of the 2001 bracket, this time applying the new 2002 bracketing guidelines. Recognizing that many, many more schools are located east of the Mississippi and that other bracketing principals (ie: conference conflicts) need to be followed, the 2001 data is still somewhat alarming. Fully 43 of 64 schools (67.2 percent) were placed beyond reasonable driving distance of their fans/families.

The sample results of "regionalization?" The number of schools sent beyond a reasonable driving distance from home drops from 43 to 25 (or 39.0 percent overall) in the revised bracket. As long as competitive conditions remain as neutral as in the past, this sample suggests overwhelmingly that the reduction of travel is a fine idea. And that was before Sept.11.

Of course, we won't know for sure until March 10. In the meantime, it is left to we amateurs to speculate on a weekly basis as to what the real 2002 bracket will look like.

This week, the biggest change is the movement of Duke from the East Region (D.C./Syracuse) to the South (S.C./Lexington). Geographically speaking, it is at worse a neutral shift for the Blue Devils. In terms of the overall bracket, many more slots become available at the typically overcrowded eastern sites.

What do I think will really happen with Duke? I'm guessing it depends on whether or not the SEC has an obvious No. 1 seed which makes even more sense for the S.C./Lexington itinerary. Some have suggested the committee will use the Blue Devils to drive ticket sales at the controversial Greenville, S.C., site.

It's a possibility, I suppose, although the argument for generating thousands of dollars in incremental ticket sales is always lacking when compared to the billions of dollars the tourney generates in television revenue. I think empty seats are more embarrassing on camera than they are at the cash register. Besides, wouldn't Duke do even more ticket business the following weekend at the Carrier Dome?

In the meantime, Duke goes to South Carolina this week. And there is an all-new first/second round site selection process for everyone else.

Joe Lunardi is the resident "bracketologist" for ESPN.com. He can be reached at jlunardi@home.com.







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