You think Duke feels bad today? Maybe, but we all know the Blue Devils have nothing to worry about in terms of the postseason. The only thing on the line Sunday at Cole Field House were ACC bragging rights.
The truly meaningful games are being contested elsewhere. I call it "Fatal February," when the dark cloud of the NIT (or worse) hangs over programs from coast-to-coast.
Everyone talks about teams playing their way in to the NCAA field at this point of the year. The reality is that many more teams are playing their way out of at-large contention.
The following teams now have virtually no chance of an at-large bid to the Big Dance. They also figure to be among the most anxious when conference tournaments begin over the next 2-3 weeks.
In a sense, every game in March will be an "elimination" game for the following:
BYU: The Cougars have a nice RPI (No. 38), but increasingly weak at-large chances. They are 5-5 in the Mountain West, 5-5 over their last 10 games and a dismal 2-8 away from home. With only one RPI Top 50 win, BYU is now playing for a conference tourney title.
GEORGETOWN: A big name with a small profile. The Hoyas are 6-6 in the crowded Big East, and they now have too many teams to pass. Throw in a 4-5 road/neutral record and a shutout (0-5) vs. the RPI Top 25, and we're talking NIT for last year's surprise Sweet 16 team.
LOUISVILLE: If this profile were attached to a team not coach by Rick Pitino, we wouldn't even have the conversation. The Cardinals are 5-7 in Conference USA and just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Look for a favorable NIT draw, as Pitino & Co. would no doubt be welcome at Madison Square Garden.
FRESNO STATE: A simply disastrous loss to Boise State may be the final nail for the Bulldogs. Fresno is 7-7 in an average league and has only one RPI Top 25 win (Oklahoma State, at home). If the NIT has a sense of humor, they'll send Tark back to UNLV for a first-round game.
SAINT JOSEPH'S: The Hawks' dwindling at-large chances died Saturday night at Xavier. One of America's most puzzling teams should still win the A-10 East Division, which would give them a favorable draw in the conference tournament. They'll need it.
ARKANSAS: Yuk. All those people who told me a month ago how good the Razorbacks were must be lower than a pig's belly. The Hogs have won only two of their last 10 games and are four games under .500 in the SEC West. The nation's No. 2 schedule only helps if you win occasionally.
SOUTH FLORIDA: Another team that can't win a big game. USF has a friendly RPI (No. 49), but not much else. The Bulls will have to scrape out a division title to even think at-large out of Conference USA.
IOWA: Somebody must have dropped a smart bomb in Iowa City. No one-time national contender has numbers even remotely this bad (4-9 Big Ten, 0-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 3-8 road/neutral). The last 10 games (2-8) might be about the worst meaningful stretch of basketball in Iowa history.
Odds are that one, maybe two of these teams will catch lightening in a bottle and sneak into the NCAAs. Your guess is as good as mine on who that might be.
Speaking of guesswork, tune into ESPN News every Tuesday and Friday for the new TV version of "Bracketology." If you hated me before, just wait until you see me on the tube! It's definitely a face for radio.
Joe Lunardi is the resident Bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. He is also editor and publisher of www.bracketology.net. Write to Joe at jlunardi@home.com.
Gamenight
