The pace in the Preakness will be fast and War Emblem will have plenty of company on the front end. But I'm just guessing. Everyone is guessing. What else is one to do? The pace scenario is the most important component of the most important horse race that will be run on the planet Saturday and we have no certainties, just intrigue, innuendo and insinuations. You cannot possibly figure this race out unless you figure out how it is going to develop. We've sent reporters to the backstretch to get the answers. We need the CIA.

John Ward Jr. says that Booklet is going. Should we believe him?

Bob Baffert, who trains War Emblem, says that he's not worried about what the others do. Yeah, right.

Wayne Lukas says the speedy Table Limit won't be anywhere near the lead. Huh?

Here's what we know:

Primarily because no one was scared of him, 20-1 shot War Emblem snuck away from the field in the Derby and set ridiculously slow fractions on his way to a four-length win. The rival trainers and jockeys made a colossal blunder by allowing a quality horse to steal the Kentucky Derby. Immediately afterward, they vowed they wouldn't get fooled again.

"Everybody is going to be gunning for the Kentucky Derby winner, and why not?" Ward said. "That's the way it should be. You're probably going to see War Emblem and Booklet locked together for most of it. It could even look like the Indy 500 going into the first turn."

Booklet, who did not run in the Derby, is not going to win the Preakness, but he is the key to the race because of his abundant early speed. "Booklet is the fastest horse in the race for a quarter-mile," Ward said. "If this race were run at a quarter mile I guarantee you he would win it." With his horse having drawn outside of War Emblem, Ward can play the cat to War Emblem's mouse. He could go after him, sit just off of him or gun for a clear lead.

"I'm leaving it up to Pat Day," he said. "I think War Emblem is pretty much locked in as far as what he what he has to do (go to the lead). Pat will have a free hand to do whatever he wants."

But it's not quite that simple. Should Booklet go after War Emblem, both will likely fall apart in the stretch after a speed duel. Should Booklet back off, War Emblem might just wind up taking another easy lead and galloping around the racetrack on his way to another win. Booklet is pretty much in a lose-lose situation.

According to the theories of Handicapping 101, Table Limit has to be up front early. He's coming off a seven-furlong race where he led gate to wire while after going an opening quarter-mile in :22.20. What makes it even more interesting is that his stablemate is Proud Citizen, the Derby runner-up. Proud Citizen desperately needs someone to go after War Emblem. Could it be Table Limit?

"Absolutely not," Lukas said. "It's not his style. When he set the pace it was at Keeneland, which is a speed-favoring track and he was simply the dominant horse. I don't think he can get in front of these world-class horses unless we really send him up there and we're not planning on gunning him."

The truth or is Lukas just playing mind games?

And what about Menacing Dennis? He's a horse no one is paying any attention to because he's a hopeless 50-1 shot, but he, too has plenty of speed. Two starts back in the 6 -furlong Zany Tactics, he was just a half-length off the lead after a quarter-mile run in :21.60. He could lose by 50 lengths yet still play a major role in the outcome of the race.

Though he was tenth in the first call of the Derby, Medaglia D'oro could be a pace factor. He was bumped around at the start in Louisville and never showed the speed he displayed when setting the pace in the Wood Memorial. Did Bobby Frankel tip his hand when he worked Medaglia D'oro three furlongs in :35 at Belmont Thursday?

So what will War Emblem do?

"What people say and what happens in the race are two different things," said Baffert. "I'm not going to get caught up in it. Everybody is just trying to psyche everyone else out. I'm not buying into it. There's a long run to the first turn so (jockey) Victor Espinoza will have a lot of time to think about what he is going to do. I think Table Limit is the horse that's going to set the tone. If they were planning on sending Booklet, why didn't they put him in an inside post instead of the 10 post? I don't know what their thinking was there."

So what will War Emblem do? Baffert didn't really say, did he? Don't be the least bit surprised if Espinoza lets another horse go? Then again, will he be as effective if they try to rate him?

The best guess and, again, that's all it is is that someone is going to make life difficult for War Emblem and that's why he will lose the Preakness. That's what makes sense, but who said this game ever makes sense? This much, though, is certain: this race will not be decided at the finish line, but at the start and the next few strides out of the gate. The Indy 500 or the Kentucky Derby redux or something else entirely different? Tune in Saturday evening at 6:09.