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Preakness breakdown
By Ed McNamara
Special to ESPN.com


Booklet
He won't win but his need-to-lead style could have a major effect on the outcome. He's winless beyond 1 1/16 miles and hasn't passed a horse in the stretch since his debut at 5 furlongs last July.

Crimson Hero
Plunked up to be a non-threatening second to Proud Citizen in the Lexington, which has been this Nick Zito colt's career highlight. Only chance to get into the superfecta would be to pass tired horses late.

Easyfromthegitgo
Didn't knock anybody out this winter at the Fair Grounds and is winless past a mile and 40 yards. Couldn't get into serious contention in the 1 1/16-mile Lexington and doesn't belong in a classic.

Equality
He's another with tactical speed and scanty credentials. Looks like a poor man's version of Booklet, with solid figures at shorter distances. Speed-slanted pedigree (by Mt. Livermore and a Gone West mare) says no to 1 3/16 miles.

Harlan's Holiday
Is the favorite by default in the Derby over the top or ready to rebound from his first out-of-the-money finish? Price should be excellent, and the distance should be no problem. If he likes Pimlico, he could be another Derby flop who bounces back big time in the Preakness.

Magic Weisner
This Maryland-bred, trained and owned by the woman who bred him, is the quintessential local favorite with no shot. Two wins at 1 1/8 miles, but he's never defeated a significant horse. Smoked Em, who beat him by 2 1/2 lengths in the Tesio, was nowhere in the Lone Star Derby.

Medaglia d'Oro
After breaking poorly and getting slammed after the start, he was the only Derby also-ran to make a strong move from off the pace. Unfortunately for price seekers, he's the wise guy horse off the bad trip and gets Jerry Bailey, so he might be favored. Could have the ideal running style (has won stalking) and may be the best horse, but don't expect value.

Menacing Dennis
Inexperienced California-bred has run only four times and is eligible for a non-winners-of-2. Has good early speed and might be able to lead heading into the clubhouse turn. No-hoper could be part of a hot pace.

Proud Citizen
Understandably tired late at Churchill after chasing War Emblem, and outran his speed-oriented pedigree by running second. Good chance he'll go backward after two big ones, and his only wins were wire-to-wire. Should be hurt by the likely "too fast early" race shape.

Straight Gin
Nick Zito's other entrant was up the track in the Spiral and Blue Grass, his only stakes tries, and belongs in a non-winners-of-2, not the Preakness. Best races have been on or near the lead, and can't deal with the other speed types in here.

Table Limit
D. Wayne Lukas said he doesn't expect this hopelessly overmatched colt to lay close to the lead, but that's how he earned his only two wins, both at 7 furlongs at speed-biased Keeneland. Was nowhere in 1 1/16-mile maiden races at Santa Anita, and the only reason for his presence here would be to soften up front-runner War Emblem.

U S S Tinosa
Won at 1 1/8 miles in minor stakes at Santa Anita and has run well from off the pace, so he could inflate the exotic prices without having a realistic chance to win. Pace setup may flatter his running style, and Jerry Hollendorfer is an excellent trainer, so he may be a longshot with resources.

War Emblem
If you didn't have him at 20-1 in the Derby, will it be wise to jump on board the bandwagon if he's 7-2 or less? Won't be allowed to get clear on his own and could bounce dramatically after two career tops. Must be respected but looks like a bet-against in this one.






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