The Preakness
12th Pimlico
Distance: 1 13/16ths miles
Purse: $1 million
For: 3-year-olds
Grade I

If it were not for the possibility that he is going to get caught up in a suicidal speed duel, War Emblem would be an obvious selection. Even though he got away with murder on the front end in the Kentucky Derby, he's proven that, at least at the moment, he is the best 3-year-old in the country. He won the Kentucky Derby by four lengths and his Beyer figures in his last two starts make him clearly the fastest horse in the race. As I wrote in my weekly column, I am both intrigued and confused by the pace situation. I can see War Emblem getting caught up in a crazy duel and I can see him working out a decent trip, maybe by laying just off of Booklet. Since I am in worse state of confusion than ever, I am simply going to ignore the pace problems and pick War Emblem because he is the best horse. Unless they really fry him on the front end, there's a good shot he can win this. Those who play him have to hope that Bob Baffert and Victor Espinoza figure a way to avoid a speed duel without taking away the horse's main asset, which is his speed. No one said that will be easy, but the price should be around 7-2, which isn't half bad.

U S S Tinosa is my wise guy horse. After he ran a solid second in the San Felipe behind Medaglia D'oro, he got into loads of trouble in the Santa Anita Derby. Throw that race out. Drawing the one post should work to his favor as he can sit comfortably behind the speed, he wasn't beaten up by running in the Derby and he's worked brilliantly over the last two weeks. His speed figures are sneaky good.

Medaglia D'oro, the morning line favorite, certainly didn't have a great trip in the Derby. He was off a step slow and then raced in traffic much of the way down the backstretch. Closing from eighth to fourth in the final quarter-mile, he was the only horse to make up any ground in the late going. Expect very different tactics here. Frankel has switched from Laffit Pincay Jr. to Jerry Bailey and gave the horse a three-furlong blow out in :35 on Thursday. He obviously wants him closer to the pace. Every reason to believe he'll fare much better this time. It's tough to get a read on the two Wayne Lukas horses, Proud Citizen and Table Limit. Both improved dramatically once they were switched to the Kentucky racetracks, as did most of Lukas' horses this spring. How will they do in another jurisdiction? Table Limit looks like he;s got a lot of talent, but going from a seven-furlong allowance to a 1 3/16ths-mile Grade I race is a tall order.

Harlan's Holiday, like so many others, was victimized by the moderate pace in the Kentucky Derby, but he really didn't do much running. Very much the forgotten horse this week, his Beyer figures have declined in three straight races and it appears that he may have peaked too soon.

Equality is the type of horse who could sneak into the money at a price. He looked like he was improving until he ran second as the 3-5 favorite in the Aventura Stakes at Gulfstream, but had some traffic problems that day. Magic Weisner, Straight Gin, Crimson Hero, Easyfromthegitgo and Menacing Dennis all appear to be too slow to handle the top horses.

Picks Summary: 1. War Emblem 2. U S S Tinosa 3. Medaglia D'oro