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 Thursday, December 16
Cards sink or swim with Plummer
 
By Joe Theismann
Special to ESPN.com

 Even though both teams lost last week, the Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals didn't lose as much ground in the playoff race as you might think.

Jake Plummer
Jake Plummer has the league's worst quarterback rating and a league-high 18 interceptions.
With Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota losing in the NFC along with Arizona, they all remained in a lump. The Cardinals are still in the hunt, even at 6-7. If they win out, they are 9-7, which I believe would get them into the NFC playoffs unless there is a tiebreaker situation with another team.

Likewise, the Bills' loss to the Giants could have been much more devastating, but other AFC playoff hopefuls -- New England, Miami, Seattle and Oakland -- also lost. They still have the inside track for a playoff berth, especially having two wins over the Dolphins.

The stakes, however, increase on Sunday. If the Cardinals lose to the Bills, they won't make the playoffs. A 9-7 record might be enough to make the playoffs, but 8-8 isn't, not with what is going on in the NFC Central. It's paramount that the Cardinals win, something they are capable of doing if Jake Plummer plays well.

Before we start to shape his bust for the Hall of Fame, Plummer has to start to learning to not throw interceptions in the end zone. Plummer might have built a reputation as a comeback quarterback, but he has contributed more to the problem than anyone else on the football team. He threw three interceptions last week and is tied with Brett Favre for the league lead with 18 -- and Plummer missed four games.

Neither the offense nor the coaches are to blame. When Plummer gets on the field, he has to do a better job of protecting the football. This is not Arizona State; he has to start playing like a professional quarterback. He might have missed some time, but Plummer did the same thing when he was healthy earlier in the season. He must become a much more disciplined quarterback.

The hardest thing for a young NFL quarterback to understand is that he doesn't have to win every game himself. He must let the players around him help. The Cardinals' running game has been nicked up, but they have a solid receiving corps, with Rob Moore, Frank Sanders and rookie David Boston. Arizona should certainly be a contender next year, but Sunday's game -- and the rest of this season -- hinges on Plummer's ability to not hurt the team.

Here are the keys to Sunday night's game for each team:

Buffalo Bills
1. Run, run, run: Buffalo has proven it must run the football to be successful. When the Bills won three of four games in November, they averaged 158 yards on the ground in the three wins. Doug Flutie is a more dangerous quarterback when he has a chance to use play-action passing. Flutie will not be effective if a team takes away the run and makes him drop back in the pocket to throw the football. He must be able to improvise after the play-action fake.

2. Make Jake: The Bills own the league's fifth-best run defense. If they shut down the run and force the ball into Plummer's hands, there is a chance he will make mistake. The Bills will almost count on it. They will put Plummer in long-yardage situations and make him win or lose the game.

3. Bruce and company: Bruce Smith might not play due to a rotator-cuff strain suffered last week against the Giants. But if he does play, Smith, at 36, can still get after the quarterback. He has five sacks this season, less than normal, but he would demand a double team. The Cardinals would either line up a tight end on his side or chip with a back.

However, the Cardinals are banged up on the left side of their line. Rookie tackle L.J. Shelton (ankle) is expected to miss the game, and guard Lester Holmes is questionable. Watch for either Smith to take advantage of a mismatch on a backup lineman or one of the Bills other linemen, like Phil Hansen or Marcellus Wiley, to chase Plummer and make plays.

Arizona Cardinals
1. Efficient Plummer: Arizona must be efficient throwing the football, especially since I don't expect the Cardinals to run well against the Bills defensive line. Plummer will have to be careful and efficient throwing the football, avoiding mistakes in the red zone. He has not made good decisions because he is apparently not seeing the whole field. He makes throws where he doesn't account for a linebacker or a safety. Arizona can win the game if Plummer plays well. If he doesn't, Arizona will lose. The Cardinals will win the game throwing the ball. It's all on Plummer's shoulders.

2. Stuff the run: With Aeneas Williams, Kwamie Lassiter and Corey Chavous, the Cardinals have a solid secondary. The onus will be on the front seven to stop the Bills' ground game, which fuels their play-action passing game. Defensive coordinator Dave McGinnis should do a good job of loading the box and shut off running lanes. Giving the Cardinals a big lift would be the availability of defensive tackle Eric Swann, who is questionable with a knee injury.

3. Manhandle Moulds: The Cardinals have to stop Eric Moulds. The Bills have an entirely different offense when they don't get the ball to Moulds, their playmaker. The way they can create one-on-one is with play-action. My guess is that Aeneas Williams will be covering Moulds all over the field. In basketball terms, it would be like a box-and-one defense. Williams is a big cornerback who can match Moulds physically. It will tough for Moulds to run away from Williams.

Former NFL quarterback Joe Theismann works as a game analyst for ESPN's Sunday Night Football. He breaks down the Sunday night matchup every week for ESPN.com.

 


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