COMMUNITY
 Letters to Editor
Send a letter
BACKSTAGE
 The Magazine
ESPN Radio


 ESPN.com
NFL

COLLEGE FB

NBA

NHL

M COLLEGE BB

W COLLEGE BB

GOLF ONLINE

BASEBALL

SOCCER

EXTREME SPORTS


Thursday, December 16
War Room: Bills at Cardinals


Buffalo offense vs. Arizona defense
BILLS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 9
Pass 22
Tot. Yds. 16
Scoring 20
Int's allowed 14
Sacks allowed 22
   
CARDINALS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 30
vs. Pass 7
Total yds. allowed 17
# of Ints. 14
# of Sacks 29
Turnover differential -9
The Bills lofty rushing ranking is one of the biggest misrepresentations in the National Football League. The teams' chief concern this season has been its inability to establish a ground game when they have needed it the most, as witnessed last week against the Giants when RB's Jonathan Linton and Thurman Thomas were held to virtually no yards when the team needed to run out the clock.

The Bills are going to look to run the ball early in the game against the Cardinals on Sunday, wanting to attack a Cardinal defense that has had major breakdowns against the run. Last week, the Cardinal allowed RB Stephan Davis to run for 189 yards because they were consistently out of position and could not hold their ground at the point of attack.

The Bills, judging on last weeks' performance, are in trouble at the right tackle position. Marcus Spriggs has been forced into duty at the position because of the loss of Robert Hicks to injury, and he was unable to handle the rush of Giants' defensive end Michael Strahan. Spriggs will again line head-up against one of the league's top rush ends, Andre Wadsworth.

The Bills RT struggles bode well for the Cardinals, who are going to mirror the style of pass rush that the Giants were so effective using against Doug Flutie last week. Arizona will use its rush ends, Wadsworth and Simeon Rice, to rush upfield quickly, forcing Flutie to step up into the pocket instead of outside it where he can be dangerous as a dual threat. When Flutie is forced to step up inside, he runs into traffic, which not only cuts down his vision in the passing lanes, but it also makes it more difficult for him to scramble.

Since the loss of TE Jay Riemersma, the effectiveness of the Bills passing game has dipped. With Riemersma out of the lineup, Flutie seems uncomfortable throwing the ball in the middle of the field. Present starter, Bobby Collins, is inexperienced but talented. He has tremendous size and strength, but he also has the raw speed and athletic ability to get down the seam and pose a threat to opposing secondaries. The receivers will face a lot more cover-two reads that will take away from its effectiveness as a unit.

Arizona offense vs. Buffalo defense
CARDINALS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 28
Pass 29
Tot. Yds. 30
Scoring 30
Int's allowed 24
Sacks allowed 39
   
BILLS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 5
vs. Pass 1
Total yds. allowed 1
# of Ints. 10
# of Sacks 29
Turnover differential -4
The Cardinal's troubles on offense start up front, where almost the entire unit has changed faces and positions over the course of the past three games. LT L.J. Shelton (ankle) and RG Lester Holmes (knee) are out for at least next week's game and possibly for the next two. Matt Joyce has been moved into the left tackle position, where he has experienced severe trouble with faster and more athletic defensive ends.

Joyce's matchup will be the biggest problem for the Cardinals as they send up a lifelong reserve offensive guard against DE Bruce Smith, who is still one of the top defensive ends in the league. This matchup will undoubtedly cause the Cardinals to use a double team on Smith, which means the rest of the Bills' defensive line is going to have one-on-one matchups and the linebacking corps will have tempting lanes to work with in the blitz package.

The Cardinal's are struggling to do much of anything on offense. The running game has been atrocious, with the exception of a 133-yard performance from Michael Pittman against the Lions, and does not look to get much better against a Buffalo defense that is stout against the run. The Cardinals are averaging just 75.4 yards per game, while the Bills rank fifth in the league versus the run.

DT Ted Washington has not been as big of a force in the middle as he was over the course of the past two seasons, but he is doing his job of clogging up the middle of the field, taking up space and the attention of teams' offensive center and offensive guards in order to allow LB's Sam Cowart and John Holecek to roam freely in the middle of the field.

Besides the fact that the pass protection has been spotty, there are lots of consistent problems with the Cardinal passing attack as well. QB Jake Plummer seems to be out of rhythm since returning from injury. He has now thrown 18 interceptions on the season, and it is evident in the film that he is not seeing the entire field.

Adding to the Cards' troubles is a receiving corps that runs poor routes and does not come back to the ball when Plummer tries to improvise. Wideouts Rob Moore, Frank Sanders and David Boston were held ineffective again last week against a marginal Giant secondary. Moore caught four passes, two of those in the fourth quarter when the game was out of reach, for a non-threatening 6-yard average. Sanders, the NFC leader last season, didn't catch one ball. Boston snagged one for 43 yards late in the first quarter and then was shut out the rest of the game.

The Bills do not have great talent in their secondary, but they do an excellent job of getting pressure up front with four man rushes, which allows them to drop at least six men in coverage on almost every passing down. The Bills will run a lot of complex zone schemes that will give Plummer trouble. The pressure up front will be controlled in order to keep Plummer inside the pocket, which means Plummer is going to be forced to make the throws that he has shown incapable of making since coming back from injury.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category BUF ARI
Punt return avg. 8 14
Kickoff return avg. 22 5
Opp. punt return avg. 10 3
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 18 9
Time of possession 7 29
Steve Christie has been inconsistent all season, connecting on just 21-of-30, but his experience as a kicker in Buffalo should prove to be an asset when the Bills return home. What dragged down the special teams' solid performance last week was the two critical field goal misses by Christie, six points that would have been enough to win the game. Kevin R. Williams is still solid as the teams punt return specialist, averaging 10.7 yards per return.

Chris Jacke is among the leagues' most inconsistent this season, connecting on just 18-of-25 with a long of only 49 yards. Scott Player has not been much better as the teams punter, averaging 41.8-yards per punt and landing just 16-of-82 attempts inside the opponents twenty-yard line. Mario Bates isn't getting too many opportunities, but he has been solid, averaging 25.7-yards per kickoff return.

Key matchups
  • Buffalo RT Marcus Spriggs vs. Arizona DE Andre Wadsworth
    Because of the injury to Robert Hicks, Spriggs has taken over the duties at the right tackle position. Spriggs has done an admirable job in Hicks' absence, but he has not faced the likes of Wadsworth in his playing experience. Spriggs is going to struggle mightily against the speed and power of Wadsworth, so the key is going to be good technique and excellent position. Wadsworth showed that he is having trouble when teams run at him last week, and if Spriggs can lock on, he has the base and strength to control Wadsworth in the run game.

  • Buffalo QB Doug Flutie vs. Arizona FS Kwamie Lassiter
    Lassiter has made a career out of being in the right spot and making plays. Lassiter has excellent instincts and does a great job of reading a quarterback's eyes. Flutie is a tough quarterback to play centerfield against because of his ability to scramble and manipulate, except Flutie does have a tendency to force balls and key in on his intended target. This will be an interesting matchup that will be a bit of a "cat and mouse" game.

  • Arizona LT Matt Joyce vs. Buffalo DE Bruce Smith
    This matchup will be the biggest problem for the Cardinals as they send up a lifelong reserve offensive guard against Smith, who is still one of the top defensive ends in the league. This matchup will undoubtedly cause the Cardinals to use a double team on Smith, which means the rest of the Bills' defensive line is going to have one-on-one matchups and the linebacking corps will have tempting lanes to work with in the blitz package.

    Buffalo will win if...
  • They run the football effectively to neutralize the speed of Arizona's defensive front. The Cardinals have one of the fastest front fours in all of the National Football League, but their biggest problem has been getting too far upfield and overpursuing the run lanes. The Bills have the personnel to win games running the football, but injuries and slow starts to games have forced them out of their game plan. The Bills are going to have to get back to running the ball 35+ times a game, and the Cardinals are a good team to start against.

  • QB Doug Flutie gets his tight ends more involved in the passing game. With Jay Riemersma out of the lineup, Flutie seemed uncomfortable throwing the ball in the middle of the field. Flutie has done an excellent job of getting the ball to his tight ends this season, but with Riemersma out, Flutie has taken his attention away from the position. Collins is inexperienced, but he is as talented a player that there is at the position. He has tremendous size and strength, but he also has the raw speed and athletic ability to get down the seam and pose a threat to opposing secondaries.

  • The defensive front four creates pressure. The Bills like to only rush four men, and occasionally a fifth from the linebacker position, but the thinking is to keep at least six men in coverage on passing downs to give their marginal secondary assistance. The Bills are going to have to get pressure from that front four, because getting to QB Jake Plummer has been the key to taking away the timing in the Cardinal offense.

    Arizona will win if...

  • Offensive coordinator Marc Trestman turns QB Jake Plummer loose. Trestman has protected his quarterback since Plummer's return from injury, but it is time to open this offense up and let Plummer run things again. Plummer has looked extremely indecisive and has had trouble reading coverage since his return, but the team needs to get him out of the pocket more and allow the athletic quarterback to make plays on the move and improvise.

  • The secondary doesn't get overzealous in run support. The Bills are going to look to get back to running the football early in the contest. The secondary is going to have to play a critical role in coming up to stop the run, but it is dangerous for the Cardinals because the Bills have explosive talent at the receiver position, and Flutie is enough of a veteran and has shown on many occasions that he is capable of burning a defense that overpursues against the play-action fake.

  • The receiving corps improves their routes. As much as last weeks' loss can be blamed on the poor play of QB Jake Plummer, the Cardinal receivers did a horrible job running routes and coming back to get the football. Arizona's offense is designed to be improvisational, and the Cardinal receivers seem to get stuck in its tracks after they come out of routes. Also, the film of last weeks' game showed too many rounded off routes and not enough crisp efforts to shake defenders in coverage.

    The War Room edge
    The Cardinals are fortunate to play this game at home, because they are almost completely outmatched against the Bills on both sides of the ball. Arizona's speed-oriented front seven has been figured out, as teams are not running the ball to neutralize their quickness. The Bills are going to get back to running the ball to set up the pass, and the Cardinals are going to have to overcompensate against the run, leaving themselves vulnerable to the pass. Arizona will also have trouble up front, as its depleted offensive line will continue to struggle to do much of anything. The Cardinals are finally healthy and should be playing the best football of its season, but the timing is off in their passing game, and the Bills have enough veteran leadership to take advantage of the Cardinals weaknesses in what is a must win for both organizations.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


  •   ESPN INSIDER
    Copyright 1995-99 ESPN/Starwave Partners d/b/a ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form. ESPN.com Privacy Policy. Use of this site signifies your agreement to the Terms of Service.