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Scouting 101: No quick fixes
By Andy Katz
ESPN.com
The Denver Nuggets had a chance to get the No. 10 pick in next Wednesday's NBA draft from Orlando, but the Magic decided to keep the choice they acquired in a previous trade.
|  | | Chris Mihm expects to make an immediate contribution as an NBA rookie. |
Dan Issel, the Nuggets general manager and coach, wasn't too surprised the Magic kept the selection, but he wasn't losing sleep over it, either.
"I kind of figured they would keep it," Issel told reporters in Denver last week. "Our more immediate concern is to get players who can help right now. I don't think there is anyone in the draft who could do that."
The idea of a quick fix coming from the NBA draft has either been forgotten or is no longer plausible. A year ago, plenty of teams got their needs filled through the draft.
Cleveland got a more reliable point guard in Utah's Andre Miller. Chicago received a low-post scorer in Duke's Elton Brand. Houston found the necessary scoring pop in Maryland's Steve Francis and a gem of a scorer inside in New Mexico's Kenny Thomas. Phoenix took in an athletic scorer on the wing in UNLV's Shawn Marion. Denver even got a little help from Xavier's slashing forward James Posey.
But the perception of the 1999 draft hasn't carried over to 2000. The feeling among NBA teams is the draft is devoid of impact players.
"There isn't one guy who can take you over the top in this draft," Celtics general manager Chris Wallace said. "It's not like when we had Tim Duncan in the draft going to San Antonio (and changing that team into a title contender)."
More than 35 underclassmen and a slew of foreign players back up the theory. A young and inexperienced work force usually doesn't start off with the best job (i.e. plenty of minutes). The number of seniors taken in the first round might be an all-time low, beating the low of 15 from a year ago. There could be as many four or five foreign-born players in the first round. Last year there were three.
The specter of free agency, especially with headliners like Tim Duncan and Grant Hill, has made talk of the NBA draft an afterthought among NBA teams.
"This is definitely a draft for the future," said Larry Harris, Milwaukee's director of player personnel. "Right now, free agency is the way to get better right away."
But the idea that players can't come in and be an immediate hit is a sore subject with a few of the high-profile upperclassmen in the draft. ESPN.com's latest mock draft had 12 seniors and one junior being taken in the first round. But at least three of them -- Cincinnati's Kenyon Martin, Fresno State's Courtney Alexander and Texas' Chris Mihm -- will be expected to contribute major minutes and numbers next season.
That's fine with them. They're actually offended by the premise that this draft isn't stocked with impact players in 2000-01.
"We'll see," Mihm said. "For any rookie, this is a big-time learning experience. At the same time, there are quite a few players in this draft who I think can step in and make a difference for teams."
Alexander is personally offended with the notion that he can't step onto an NBA court and play significant minutes. Even Darius Miles, the high school senior out of East St. Louis, Ill., said he didn't declare for the NBA to sit on the bench. He's expecting to be the seventh or eighth man on a roster.
"I wouldn't have any other way than contributing right away," Alexander said. "That's my goal, and I feel after everything I went through that I'm ready to make an impact. I realize that's all about the right situation, too."
But no matter how the draft is broken down, it will never be easy to project who will have an impact next season. The draft might be considered deep, but more so from 20 to 45. The top of the draft lacks a slew of players who can already make plans for the rookie game at the all-star weekend.
Miles, who called this draft "a big ol' juggle," could be one of the few high school players to produce in his first season. But it depends on what teams he goes to and how much veteran leadership is around him in the locker room.
"It is a deep draft, but you could get as good a player at No. 20 as a team does at No. 40," said Jim Kelly, Toronto's director of scouting. "Evaluating this draft can't be done overnight. You may not know for years. This is a draft on potential, rather than ability today."
Look, few thought Vince Carter would be the star that he is today when he was selected by Golden State with the fifth pick in '98 and traded to Toronto. Thomas' contributions for the Rockets after being picked 20th last season proved how deep the 1999 draft was.
But, remember, teams will take flyers on players who they don't expect to play immediately, like Utah's selection of Andrei Kirilenko last season. The same could occur wherever Iakovos Tsakalidis or Olumide Oyedeji are selected. Tsakalidis isn't out of his Greek contract yet, and Oyedeji hasn't played American basketball consistently at this level yet.
Scouts have projected this draft with having plenty of role players and specialists. The draft is loaded with high-profile power forwards, but is top heavy in centers. Point guards, albeit mostly guys at less than six feet, are plentiful. True shooting guards are hard to find, but small forwards are stocked.
"You're going to have to project," Grizzlies president Dick Versace said. "You have to look at a young guy some 19 or 20 years old and see if he has the discipline for a given situation. You have to look and see what this guy will be like two years from now."
To solve this question, the NBA brass are having to match the upside of a teen against the peaking ability of a four-year senior. Youth is expected to prevail for most of the first round. That doesn't mean the draft is any deeper than the past. But it is younger, more athletic and more foreign than any other draft.
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.
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