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Scouting the top five power forwards
By Jay Bilas
Special to ESPN.com
Editor's note: ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas will be breaking down the top five prospects at each position leading up to the NBA draft.
Kenyon Martin, Cincinnati
Kenyon Martin is the strongest and most athletic player in the draft, as well as the biggest impact player on the defensive end. Martin is incredibly quick off his feet, and is able to fight down low for position while using his quickness and speed against those who try to outmuscle him.
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Martin's statistics
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PPG
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RPG
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FG %
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BPG
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1999-00
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18.9
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9.7
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56.8
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3.4
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Career
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11.0
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7.5
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58.6
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2.5
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He is an outstanding shotblocker with great timing and aggressiveness in going for blocks, but what has even greater impact than his rejections are the shots that he changes because of his presence. Martin used to try and block everything, which left the offensive glass vulnerable.
However, he is now much more selective and smarter on the defensive end, truly showing ability to change a game on defense. Martin is a good rebounder who can really go up for the ball in traffic, and he attacks the defensive glass. Alongside a capable NBA center, Martin can be a tremendous asset on the defensive end and the boards.
On offense, Martin showed dramatic improvement throughout his senior season. When taking the ball up, Martin can really finish and looks very fluid doing so. When shooting the ball and handling it outside of five feet during his first three years at Cincinnati, Martin had always looked mechanical and a little uncomfortable. That was not so his senior season. Martin showed that he could hit from 12 feet and in, and was much more aggressive in looking for his shot and calling for the ball.
If pushed off the lane, Martin still has the ability to face up and drive by his defender to get to the basket. Martin does not possess a particularly soft touch, but doesn't shoot a bad ball, either. I liken him to Alonzo Mourning coming out of college: an absolute warrior on the defensive end despite the fact that he is undersized, with decent offensive skills that can greatly improve. Things have worked out well for Mourning, as he is now the best player in the Eastern Conference, and things should work out well for Martin as well.
Stromile Swift, LSU
Stromile Swift is talented enough and has enough upside to warrant being the first pick in the draft. Swift is 6-foot-9, with long arms and great athletic skill. Although slim, he is very strong and can get up in the air in a hurry to block shots or go after offensive rebounds.
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Swift's statistics
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PPG
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RPG
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FG %
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BPG
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1999-00
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16.2
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8.2
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60.8
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2.7
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Career
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13.4
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7.0
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56.0
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2.6
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Swift has shown the ability to play with his back to the basket, and can face up and shoot the ball inside of 17 feet. In the lane, he is nearly automatic because of his touch and ability to rise and dunk over people -- which leads to his robust shooting percentage. He has the tools to improve as a shooter because he has pretty good mechanics, good hands and a good touch.
True to his name, Swift can really run the court, and he is an outstanding shotblocker and offensive rebounder. To be a complete player, Swift needs to improve his ballhandling skills to where he can face up comfortably and make a decisive move, dictating to the defense rather than the other way around. He also needs to improve his shooting numbers from the perimeter and the free throw line.
Stromile Swift is one of the few true impact players in this draft, and although it will take him some time to mature into an All-Star caliber player, he has that kind of ability. The only knock on Swift is that he sometimes drifts, and did not really learn to dominate games on a consistent basis. However, that is now a fact of life to which the NBA will have to adjust -- most of the prospects in this draft are unfinished products that will be tempered by the NBA wars.
Marcus Fizer, Iowa State
No player in the college ranks, with perhaps the exception of a healthy Kenyon Martin, was as dominant as Iowa State's Marcus Fizer. Fizer is an explosive low-post scorer who can hit a variety of shots over defenders, and powers his way to the basket and finishes strong. Fizer runs fairly well, and shows good toughness on the offensive end.
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Fizer's statistics
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PPG
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RPG
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FG %
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BPG
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1999-00
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22.8
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7.7
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58.2
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1.1
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Career
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18.9
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7.4
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51.3
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0.9
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Fizer has been compared to Utah's Karl Malone coming out of college, but it may be a bit early to make that call. Like Malone, Fizer brings it in the scoring category on every night, and has a hunger to put up numbers.
While Fizer is a very good prospect, there are some questions about his ability to be a dominating star in the NBA. He is a good rebounder, but not a great one, failing to average double-figure rebounds in a league that did not have many dominant big men to challenge him. He shoots a good percentage from the field, but does not have great range.
Fizer needs to upgrade his passing skills, finding open teammates off double teams, and needs to become more comfortable putting the ball on the floor. He also needs to improve his face-up skills and develop a consistent jumpshot to be a dominant NBA player, because he will not be able to overpower people in the NBA like he did in college. That said, Fizer is an early lottery selection.
Jerome Moiso, UCLA
Jerome Moiso is a difficult prospect to figure out. During his career at UCLA, Moiso was everything but consistent, showing flashes of brilliance on one night, then producing a disappearing act that David Copperfield would find baffling.
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Moiso's statistics
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PPG
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RPG
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FG %
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BPG
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1999-00
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13.0
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7.6
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50.1
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1.7
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Career
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12.0
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6.8
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49.5
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1.3
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Moiso has all the skills to be a solid pro. He is a long and lean lefthander with good athleticism and a soft touch. He has range to at least 20 feet, and can run very well. Moiso is a
very good shotblocker and can rebound the ball when he feels the spirit
moving within him.
His downside is simple -- Moiso does not yet understand how to
dominate or control a college game, so how could he be expected to make the
transition and be a great player on the NBA level? He can't be expected to do it, but he's in the draft, and the only real question for teams to ask is "is there a better player available?".
Moiso tends to float through some games, even when his performance is vital for his
team's success. At UCLA, he was fairly easy for a good team to shut down,
and could go long stretches without seeing the ball. Blame that on his
teammates if you want, but a 6-11 aggressive performer who wants the ball should
post hard and call for the ball, and go to the glass to go get it.
Moiso goes over his right shoulder for most of his moves, and can be hard to
guard because of his versatility. He needs to work on his ballhandling
skills and to get stronger to take the pounding in the paint that the NBA
will dish out to him.
Etan Thomas, Syracuse
Etan Thomas was strictly a low post player at Syracuse who did not
really score or venture outside of 10 feet, unless it was to shoot a free
throw.
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Thomas' statistics
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PPG
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RPG
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FG %
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BPG
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1999-00
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13.6
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9.3
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60.2
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3.7
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Career
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11.0
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6.9
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60.0
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3.5
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Thomas is just 6-9, but is very strong and has big hands and great
timing as a defender. He'll be able to take a pounding inside, and can
dish it out fighting for position. However, often in college Thomas was content to let his man have the low block without much of a fight, then simply play for the blocked shot on him, or on the weakside.
That defensive strategy will not be effective in the NBA.
While Thomas is better suited to be a defender in the NBA, he is a
good offensive rebounder who can power the ball up strong to the basket and
finish. He gets wide and low in posting in the lane, but he played against
relatively few quality big men in the Big East, or at least, big men with
real size.
Thomas needs to improve his shooting from the field and the
line, and needs to add a face up game. Thomas is reluctant to shoot outside
of 10 feet, but needs to be able to hit a free-throw line jumper. Still,
Thomas is a safe pick later in the first round for a team that needs a big body to be a defender and rebounder.
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