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| Lineup analysis: AL Central Special to ESPN.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Chicago White Sox
Strengths Jose Valentin is one of the most underrated shortstops in baseball, and is a huge upgrade over Mike Caruso, who thus far has been a huge disappointment. Between Valentin and Ray Durham -- and the underrated Mark Johnson in the 9-hole -- the White Sox should have more runners on base for their right-handed power core of Frank Thomas, Magglio Ordonez, and Paul Konerko. Konerko, in particular, is a top candidate for a breakout season -- he hit .294/.352/.511 last year, and he just turned 24. Weaknesses Chris Singleton, signed as a minor league free agent, hit .300 with 17 homers and 20 steals as a rookie, but he turns 28 in August, doesn't draw walks, and never hit nearly so well in the minor leagues. He's a terrific defensive player, but hey, so was Jerome Walton. The hot corner is turning into a hot potato, as the White Sox can't decide whether to play Greg Norton (questionable bat, questionable glove), Craig Wilson (horrible bat, good glove), or try Konerko (great bat, just don't ask about his glove) for kicks. Key The same as last year: they have to find a way to get Thomas on track. Thomas was outhomered by Mark Grace, 16 to 15, and you can't be called a power hitter when you can't outslug Mark Grace. If Thomas wakes up from his nightmare and remembers that he's a right-handed Ted Williams, the White Sox could contend for the playoffs. Overall 1999: 777 runs, 10th in the AL. 2000: Improvements at shortstop and first base should offset the expected decline in center field. The Pale Hose should make a charge at 800 runs, and make it there if Thomas has any bounce in his bat. Cleveland Indians
Strengths When you score over 1000 runs -- the first team to reach the millennium mark since the 1950 Red Sox -- your whole lineup is a strength. The Indians' 3-4-5 hitters may all wind up in the Hall of Fame, and Richie Sexson, David Justice, and Travis Fryman, their 6-7-8 hitters, are more potent than the middle of many teams' lineups. The lineup has excellent left-right balance, making it even more difficult for opposing managers to shut the Indians down in the late innings. Weaknesses The Indians have no true center fielder until Kenny Lofton comes back, and there's no guarantee that Lofton will be at 100 percent even when he returns. There were a lot of career years in this lineup last year -- there's no way Omar Vizquel can hit .333 again, and Roberto Alomar is unlikely to duplicate his numbers as well. Fryman's health is a question, and Sandy Alomar's health is just a rumor. If Einar Diaz plays in 100 games, the offense is going to take a hit. Key Lofton's speedy and healthy return is a must if the Indians are going to defend their runs-scored crown. But whether Vizquel can hit remotely as well as he did last year, when he became the first shortstop since Honus Wagner to hit .330 with 40 steals in the same season, is equally important. Overall 1999: 1009 runs, the most in a really long time. 2000: They won't come close to 1000 again. Look for 925 runs, which may still be enough to lead the league, but not by much. Detroit Tigers
Strengths Power, up and down the lineup. Swapping Juan Gonzalez for Gabe Kapler is a definite upgrade, even if it turns out to be for only one year. Even last year, when the Tigers finished 12th in the AL in runs scored, they hit 212 homers, fourth in the league. Deivi Cruz, batting ninth, hit 14 homers. On the downside, the Tigers are moving from the homer-friendly confines of Tiger Stadium to Comerica Park, where the dimensions are much more spacious -- especially for right-handed power hitters, which doesn't make it any easier for Gonzalez to live up to his expectations. Weaknesses The inability to get on base. No one on this team fits the profile of a true leadoff hitter -- Brad Ausmus led the Tigers with a .365 OBP last year. Juan Encarnacion and Cruz were the only hitters in all of baseball with more homers than walks last year, even though neither one hit more than 19 homers. And aside from Cruz and Ausmus, the defense is shaky -- especially in the outfield, where the Tigers are planning to start three left fielders. Key New manager Phil Garner must impress upon the Tigers the importance of patience at the plate. If the Tigers can't get more runners on base, Gonzalez isn't going to have anyone to drive in, and Detroit is going to see an awful lot of solo homers and awfully few wins. Overall 1999: 747 runs, 12th in the AL. 2000: The addition of Gonzalez will jump-start an otherwise stagnating lineup, but don't expect miracles here. 770 runs, and they will be hard-pressed to finish in the top half of the league in runs scored. Kansas City Royals
*Triple-A numbers Strengths One through seven, the Royals hit you with one quality hitter after another. The first three hitters could each end up with over 30 steals, and more importantly, both Johnny Damon and Carlos Febles are capable of posting .380 OBPs. Even better, two-thirds of the everyday lineup is 26 or younger, meaning one or two true breakout seasons -- most likely from Carlos Beltran -- is a good bet. And with Damon, Beltran, and Jermaine Dye, the Royals have one of the best outfields -- offensive and defensive -- in baseball. Weaknesses The trade of Jeremy Giambi not only deprived the Royals of one of their best pure hitters, but it swung the Royals lineup to the right more than the Austrian parliament: only Damon and Beltran bat from the left side. With left-handed starters in the AL rarer than a sunburn in Fairbanks, that's a problem. Tony Muser's obsession with first base defense -- he'd probably vote for Dave Stapleton to get into the Hall of Fame if he sat on the Veterans Committee -- could hamper the offense if Sweeney moves to DH so that Paul Sorrento can play first. Key The Royals have to show confidence in Mark Quinn and Sal Fasano to get the job done at DH and catcher. If Sorrento and Brian Johnson each get significant playing time, the bottom of the lineup is not going to be very good at all. If Quinn and Fasano are given full-time jobs, the Royals could have above-average hitters at every position but shortstop. Overall 1999: 857, 7th in the AL 2000: Despite setting a franchise record in runs scored last year, the Royals may actually improve on their total this season. Look for 880 runs and a top-five ranking in runs scored in the AL. Minnesota Twins
Triple-A numbers Strengths Not many. Manager Tom Kelly has finally accepted that Doug Mientkiewicz's glove can not make up for his bat, and is giving both David Ortiz and Mario Valdez serious looks this spring. Both are capable of hitting .300 with 25 homers, a far cry from Mientkiewicz's .229 and two. Matt LeCroy, who has above-average power but below-average defense, is making a serious run for a starting job at catcher, and if he gets it, he's a frontrunner for AL Rookie of the Year honors. Todd Walker figures to bounce back from a disappointing season. Weaknesses Cristian Guzman was the worst-hitting everyday player in the majors last year, and not even Rey Ordonez was close. Kelly has been batting him second in spring training, which is a bad, bad sign. Where's the beef? Certainly not in the middle of the Twins lineup, as they haven't had a 20-homer hitter since Marty Cordova in 1995. Chad Allen, a left fielder who hits like Mike Bordick, is a fitting symbol for a lineup where offense is purely optional. Key As the Twins look to the future -- certainly not a new theme -- they desperately need LeCroy to establish himself as an everyday catcher, heralding a wave of prospects including third baseman Michael Cuddyer and outfielders Michael Restovich, Bobby Kielty, and B.J. Garbe over the next two years. Kelly is a stickler for defense, but right now the Twins need runs and they need them badly, and sticking with LeCroy would be a good start. Overall 1999: 686 runs, the fewest in baseball, even with the benefit of the DH. 2000: Can it get any worse? Probably not, but it won't get much better. 700 runs, and only the Angels' offense will be on their radar screen in the AL. Rany Jazayerli, M.D., is co-author of the Baseball Prospectus, the in-depth, irreverent, no-holds-barred look at our National Pastime. He can be reached by email at ranyj@mediaone.net. | ALSO SEE Lineup analysis: AL East Lineup analysis: AL West Lineup analysis: NL East Lineup analysis: NL Central Lineup analysis: NL West  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||