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TODAY: Monday, May 15
Lineup analysis: AL West



Texas Rangers

Projected lineup with '99 stats
Player HR RBI Avg. OBP SLG
SS Royce Clayton 14 52 .288 .346 .445
LF Rusty Greer 20 101 .300 .405 .493
C Ivan Rodriguez 35 113 .332 .356 .558
1B Rafael Palmeiro 47 148 .324 .420 .630
DH David Segui 14 52 .298 .355 .468
CF Ruben Mateo 5 18 .238 .268 .451
RF Gabe Kapler 18 49 .245 .315 .447
2B Frank Catalanatto 11 35 .276 .327 .458
3B Tom Evans* 12 68 .280 .384 .456

*Triple-A numbers

Strengths
Ivan Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro finished first and fifth in the AL MVP vote last year. Keep in mind, however, that both had the best years of their careers and it's asking a lot to expect repeat performances. Rusty Greer is a consistent .400 OBP machine at the top of the order. Of the eight projected starters who played in the majors last year, the lowest slugging percentage was Royce Clayton's .445. Even without Juan Gonzalez, power is not a problem.

Weaknesses
Clayton reached career highs in OBP (.346, career .313) and slugging (.445, career .368). If he hits like last year, he's a solid leadoff guy. If he hits like his career norms, he's a bad leadoff guy. Ruben Mateo and Gabe Kapler both struggled to get on base last year and need to hike those on-base percentages up to more respectable levels.

Key
The Rangers have two rookies in the starting lineup (Ruben Mateo, Tom Evans). Those two will certainly have to produce. What was the last team to win a division title with two rookies in the starting lineup?

Overall
1999: 945 runs, second in AL
2000: If Kapler improves as projected, the dropoff from Gonzalez won't be as severe as many predict. A dropoff to 900 runs looks reasonable, but that still would have tied them with the Yankees for third in the league a year ago.

Oakland Athletics

Projected lineup with '99 stats
Player HR RBI Avg. OBP SLG
CF Rich Becker 6 26 .258 .395 .371
2B Randy Velarde 16 76 .317 .390 .455
1B Jason Giambi 33 123 .315 .422 .553
DH John Jaha 35 111 .276 .414 .556
RF Matt Stairs 38 102 .258 .366 .533
LF Ben Grieve 28 86 .265 .358 .481
3B Eric Chavez 13 50 .247 .333 .427
SS Miguel Tejada 21 84 .251 .325 .427
C Ramon Hernandez 3 21 .279 .363 .397

 

Strengths
Walks, walks and more walks. Billy Beane is perhaps the best GM in the game at understanding the value of walks and on-base percentage. The A's hit just .259 last season, second-worst in the AL, but finished fourth in runs thanks to a league-leading 770 walks. Finishing second in home runs (235) helped as well. Beyond that, another strength is the continuing development of the four young players in the lineup: Ben Grieve, Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada and Ramon Hernandez could all improve.

Weaknesses
The A's do lean a little heavily to the left side, but their team splits a year ago weren't extreme: .355 OBP, .428 slugging vs. LH; .355 OBP, .453 slugging vs. RH. They lack team speed, but that's only a minor deterrent.

Key
Randy Velarde and John Jaha have had injury problems throughout their careers. Both had monster seasons last year and need to stay healthy, although Jeremy Giambi provides excellent insurance for Jaha.

Overall
1999: 893, 4th in AL
2000: The A's may score another 30-50 runs this season and have the best offense in the league.

Seattle Mariners

Projected lineup with '99 stats
Player HR RBI Avg. OBP SLG
LF Mark McLemore 6 45 .274 .363 .366
3B Carlos Guillen 1 3 .158 .200 .316
SS Alex Rodriguez 42 111 .285 .357 .586
1B John Olerud 19 96 .298 .427 .463
DH Edgar Martinez 24 86 .337 .447 .554
RF Jay Buhner 14 38 .222 .388 .421
CF Mike Cameron 21 66 .256 .357 .469
2B David Bell 21 78 .268 .331 .432
C Dan Wilson 7 38 .266 .315 .382

 

Strengths
Obviously, the departure of Ken Griffey Jr. affects any lineup. Last season, Griffey created 140 runs while his replacement, Mike Cameron, created 87 runs, meaning the Mariners are starting off about 53 runs in the hole. However, there are some positives. John Olerud will be a vast improvement over David Segui and others who manned first base last year. In fact, Olerud and Edgar Martinez give the Mariners two .400-plus on-base percentage machines. Keeping Brian Hunter out of the lineup will help immensely. Mark McLemore has no power, but still created 28 more runs than Hunter did last year.

Weaknesses
Right now, the lineup leans too heavily toward the right side, with only Olerud and switch-hitters McLemore and Carlos Guillen hitting from the left side. Guillen will be a defensive improvement over Russ Davis, but projects to be one of the weakest-hitting third basemen in the league. David Bell didn't hit for any power after moving into Safeco Field, and Dan Wilson needs to lose more playing time to Tom Lampkin.

Key
The Mariners need Jay Buhner healthy for 120-130 games. Yes, he'll hit for a low average and strike out a ton, but his OBP last year was still above .380. Without his power, the outfield production could be terrible.

Overall
1999: 859 runs, sixth in AL
2000: About 20-30 runs less, although that is partially due to playing a full season at Safeco Field.

Anaheim Angels

Projected lineup with '99 stats
Player HR RBI Avg. OBP SLG
LF Darin Erstad 13 53 .253 .308 .374
2B Scott Spiezio 8 33 .243 .324 .437
1B Mo Vaughn 33 108 .281 .358 .503
RF Tim Salmon 17 69 .266 .372 .490
CF Garret Anderson 21 80 .303 .336 .469
3B Troy Glaus 29 79 .240 .331 .450
DH Todd Greene 14 42 .243 .275 .436
C Matt Walbeck 3 22 .240 .308 .306
SS Gary DiSarcina 1 29 .229 .273 .273

 

Strengths
Let's see, only the Twins scored fewer runs in the AL last year. Well, Mo Vaughn may be healthier as may Tim Salmon. Darin Erstad could play better. Troy Glaus should improve.

Weaknesses
Gary DiSarcina may be a team leader, but he's still one of the least productive hitters in the majors. His career OBP is .291 and has been .286 or lower in three of the past four seasons. His career high in walks is 21, and he's never hit more than five home runs in a season. Matt Walbeck is just as bad (.290 career OBP), meaning Ben Molina may get playing time at catcher. Garret Anderson had a .336 OBP, less than the AL average of .346. Erstad's OPS (on-base + slugging) was .683, 146th-worst of 150 big-league regulars.

Key
Keeping everybody in the lineup and improving on their league-worst .256 batting average and .322 OBP.

Overall
1999: 711 runs, 13th in AL
2000: They'll score more runs but still have too many gaping holes to make the top half of the league.
 


ALSO SEE
Lineup analysis: AL East

Lineup analysis: AL Central

Lineup analysis: NL East

Lineup analysis: NL Central

Lineup analysis: NL West