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TODAY: Monday, May 15
Lineup analysis: NL West



Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected lineup with '99 stats
Player HR RBI Avg. OBP SLG
SS Tony Womack 4 41 .277 .332 .370
2B Jay Bell 38 112 .289 .374 .557
LF Luis Gonzalez 26 111 .336 .403 .549
3B Matt Williams 35 142 .303 .344 .536
1B Erubiel Durazo 11 30 .329 .422 .594
CF Steve Finley 34 103 .264 .336 .525
RF Travis Lee 9 50 .237 .337 .363
C Kelly Stinnett 14 38 .232 .302 .426

 

Strengths
The D-Backs have no glaring holes in the lineup and have a nice mixture of power hitters, high-average hitters, lefties and righties. It's also important to note that the club did not derive an advantage from the home ballpark last season. Erubiel Durazo appears to be an emerging star and provides another power bat in the middle of the order. Even the lower end of the order should provide decent production with the right-field platoon capable of good numbers and the catching combo of Kelly Stinnett and Damian Miller doing a passable job.

Weaknesses
Jay Bell and Luis Gonzalez had career seasons. Steve Finley had career-highs in homers and RBI. Matt Williams had his best season in years. Gonzalez is the youngest of the foursome at 32 and it's possible (even likely) that all four players will experience dropoffs -- possibly big dropoffs. Tony Womack is a decent leadoff hitter due to his excellent basestealing ability, but keep in mind that his .334 on-base percentage was below the NL leadoff average of .349.

Key
How much will Bell and Gonzalez decline? Bell slugged .557; his previous best was .461. Gonzalez hit .336; his career mark is .277.

Overall
1999: 908 runs scored, 1st in NL
2000: Expect a significant decline of 50-70 runs.

San Francisco Giants

Projected lineup with '99 stats
Player HR RBI Avg. OBP SLG
CF Marvin Benard 16 64 .290 .359 .457
3B Bill Mueller 2 36 .290 .388 .362
LF Barry Bonds 34 83 .262 .389 .617
2B Jeff Kent 23 101 .290 .366 .511
1B J.T. Snow 24 98 .274 .370 .451
RF Ellis Burks 31 96 .282 .394 .569
SS Rich Aurilia 22 80 .281 .336 .444
C Doug Mirabelli 1 10 .253 .327 .356

 

Strengths
Six teams hit more home runs than the Giants. Six teams hit for a higher average. Yet, only two teams in the NL scored more runs than the Giants. How? Patience. The Giants drew 696 walks, third-most in the league behind the Astros and Mets. Barry Bonds had his lowest on-base percentage since 1989, but remains one of baseball's best hitters. Marvin Benard had a nice season as the leadoff hitter, although concerns about his defense may mean playing time for Calvin Murray. Only Barry Larkin can match Rich Aurilia's production among NL shortstops.

Weaknesses
Bonds and Ellis Burks are both 35 and missed significant time last year. Jeff Kent is 32. Catcher is in the unproven hands of Doug Mirabelli and Bobby Estallela. If Murray plays, will he hit? Russ Davis is around to potentially eat up too many at-bats.

Key
The core of the lineup is starting to get old. Will the aging process and injuries hold off for another year?

Overall
1999: 872, 3rd in NL
2000: The Giants slugged .450 on the road, .417 at home. Their new park should be a better hitters' park and IF everyone stays healthy, the Giants could lead the league in runs scored.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected lineup with '99 stats
Player HR RBI Avg. OBP SLG
CF Devon White 14 68 .268 .337 .407
SS M. Grudzielanek 7 46 .326 .376 .436
LF Gary Sheffield 34 101 .301 .407 .523
RF Shawn Green 23 101 .290 .366 .511
1B Eric Karros 34 112 .304 .362 .550
C Todd Hundley 24 55 .207 .295 .436
3B Adrian Beltre 15 67 .275 .352 .428
SS Jose Vizcaino 1 29 .252 .304 .297

 

Strengths
Gary Sheffield, Shawn Green and Eric Karros. The potential of Adrian Beltre.

Weaknesses
Just about everything else. Devon White is on the decline and Todd Hollandsworth may win the center field job. Problem is, Hollandsworth has a meager career OBP of .325, terrible for a leadoff hitter. Mark Grudzielanek hit .326 last year, but he's more likely to hit around his career mark of .288, which means he's pretty mediocre due to his lack of power and walks. Shortstop is an offensive black hole with Jose Vizcaino or Kevin Elster, even worse if it's Alex Cora.

Key
Todd Hundley. He's hitting .196 his last 500 at-bats. The power is still there, but the average is unacceptable.

Overall
1999: 793, 11th in NL
2000: About the same. Could score more if Hundley produces and Beltre improves.

Colorado Rockies

Projected lineup with '99 stats
Player HR RBI Avg. OBP SLG
CF Tom Goodwin 3 33 .259 .324 .341
2B Mike Lansing 4 15 .310 .344 .455
RF Larry Walker 37 115 .379 .458 .710
3B Jeff Cirillo 15 88 .326 .401 .461
1B Todd Helton 35 113 .320 .395 .587
LF Jeffrey Hammonds 17 41 .279 .347 .523
C Brent Mayne 2 39 .301 .389 .419
SS Neifi Perez 12 70 .280 .307 .403

 

Strengths
Larry Walker pulled off a unique "Triple Crown" last season, leading the NL in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. However, like most of the Rockies, he had a severe home/road split, hitting .461 at Coors, .286 on the road. Jeff Cirillo hit .326 in Milwaukee, which means he could battle Walker for the NL batting crown. Jeffrey Hammonds could produce Dante Bichette-like numbers.

Weaknesses
The Rockies were dead last in the league in runs scored on the road. Once again, their lineup will be littered with too many hackers. Neifi Perez is miserable on the road -- .287 OBP. Mike Lansing doesn't walk. Tom Goodwin is a leadoff hitter with a poor OBP (.338 career). Even Todd Helton hit only 12 of his 35 homers on the road.

Key
Lansing and Hammonds need to stay healthy for 140 games.

Overall
1999: 906, 2nd in NL
2000: New GM Dan O'Dowd has shown a better understand of Coors Field than the previous regime, but the Rockies will still have trouble scoring enough runs on the road.

San Diego Padres

Projected lineup with '99 stats
Player HR RBI Avg. OBP SLG
LF Al Martin 24 63 .277 .337 .506
SS Damian Jackson 9 39 .224 .320 .356
RF Tony Gwynn 10 62 .338 .381 .477
3B Phil Nevin 24 85 .269 .352 .527
1B Ryan Klesko 21 80 .297 .376 .532
2B Bret Boone 20 63 .252 .310 .416
CF Ruben Rivera 23 48 .195 .295 .406
C Ben Davis 5 30 .244 .307 .361

 

Strengths
The Padres have no outstanding strengths in the lineup, which is why they ranked above only the Marlins in runs scored last season. And yes, we include Tony Gwynn in that statement. Consider this: the average No. 3 hitter in the NL had a .393 OBP and .526 slugging percentage (.919 OPS). Gwynn had an .858 OPS. Even among NL right fielders, Gwynn ranked only sixth (and behind Brian Giles, who will right field this year).

Weaknesses
Al Martin isn't your prototypical leadoff hitter but he is the best option the Padres have right now. The main concerns are production from the No. 2 hole, whether that's Damian Jackson or Chris Gomez, and Ruben Rivera's ability to hit a curveball. The Padres need his defense in center but they don't need his .195 batting average.

Key
Is Phil Nevin for real? The Padres need Nevin and Klesko to reach 30 home runs.

Overall
1999: 710, 15th in NL
2000: The Padres should score a few more runs but will remain one of the weaker offensive teams unless Jackson and Rivera show dramatic improvement.

 


ALSO SEE
Lineup analysis: NL East

Lineup analysis: NL Central

Lineup analysis: AL East

Lineup analysis: AL Central

Lineup analysis: AL West