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Smart money won't be on Fusaichi Pegasus
By Ed McNamara
Special to ESPN.com
|  | | The colt with the "can't miss" label, Fusaichi Pegasus, may not be the best bet come Derby Day. |
He has the look of eagles and the pedigree of a king of beasts. He cost $4 million at the world's priciest yearling sale, and the word is that Fusao Sekiguchi would have gladly gone to $5 million for the imposing bay
colt he called Fusaichi Pegasus.
The name is a vanity plate, combining the owner's first name with "ichi," which means No. 1 in Japanese. Throw in Pegasus, the winged horse of Greek mythology, and you have a title bursting with egotism. The
overbearing pride has been justified by performance, though, and there's no
doubt that Fusaichi Pegasus is the most talented animal in Saturday's 126th
Kentucky Derby.
That doesn't mean he'll win it.
The key to this Run for the Roses is deciding what to do with the favorite, whose odds will be about 8-5 when the field bursts out of the gate at 5:27 p.m. To paraphrase that indecisive Danish horseplayer Prince Hamlet:
"To tout or to doubt, that is the question. Whether 'tis nobler to go with
the herd and bet the chalk, or to refuse to take a bad price and throw
deep."
Whatcha gonna do, Eddie boy? What's the plan, alleged expert?
I'll try to beat him.
Before you start berating me by citing Fusaichi Pegasus' speed figures, acceleration, tactical speed, good looks and terrific trainer,
listen to a few historical tidbits.
The best horse often doesn't win the Derby, and you don't have to be a great one to wear the blanket of roses.
Strike the Gold and Go for Gin each suffered through long losing streaks
after taking the 1991 and 1994 Derbys, respectively. Lil E. Tee (1992) was
no superstar, and neither was Sea Hero (1993).
|
“ |
If
(Fusaichi Pegasus) wins, great. I won't feel too
bad about being wrong, because then the sport
will have a superstar. But if you take low odds
that he will, it will be a bad bet, even if you cash
the ticket. The reward doesn't come close to
justifying the risk. ” |
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— Ed McNamara |
Besides talent, to take America's Race you need a good trip, luck, fondness for Churchill Downs' racing surface and 2-year-old seasoning. No one can say who will get the breaks Saturday and who will be tortured by
fate.
From his workout Sunday, we do know that Fusaichi (Foo-sah-EE-chi) Pegasus can handle the track. We also know he raced only once last year, and that may be crucial. You must be battle-tested to overcome a large field in the most
grueling experience any thoroughbred is forced to endure.
Lucky Debonair won the 1965 Derby after running only once at age 2, but no horse has done it since. Is Fusaichi Pegasus good enough to overcome that trend? Does it matter that he's never been in a real fight down the
stretch, or is he so cosmically gifted that he'll draw off by three lengths
and gallop into history?
If he does, great. I won't feel too bad about being wrong, because then the sport will have a superstar. But if you take low odds that he will, it will be a bad bet, even if you cash the ticket. The reward doesn't come
close to justifying the risk.
That's not my only problem with Fusaichi Pegasus, either. Throughout his five-race career he has worn bandages on his forelegs. Tomy Lee, in 1959, was the last Derby winner to wear fronts. Fusaichi Pegasus' trainer, Neil Drysdale, maintains they are a precautionary measure because the offspring of Mr. Prospector often have leg problems. Does this one?
Fusaichi Pegasus' bloodlines and temperament also could cause trouble. His pedigree (Mr. Prospector out of a Danzig mare) is slanted toward speed, not for going 1¼ miles, especially not this early in his
career.
His tendency toward eccentric behavior could cost him the race before it starts. On the morning of April 27 at Churchill Downs, Fusaichi Pegasus was walking off the track when he suddenly reared up, threw his exercise rider and fell over. Two mornings earlier, he was bucking like a rodeo bronco. Before his awesome triumph in the Wood Memorial, he delayed the start by refusing to head for the gate. An outrider had to dismount and pull him toward it. He's always
been a businesslike professional during races, but these antics are
disturbing. Will he peak or freak on Saturday?
Drysdale has acted unconcerned, saying, "If he stopped bucking, I'd worry about him." You can be sure the 52-year-old transplanted Englishman is worried about what will happen Derby Day. Will his loose cannon go off amid
the howls of 140,000 fans? Will he do another imitation of Silver, The Lone
Ranger's horse, in the packed paddock? "Hi-yo Fusaichi, away!"
Enough, Mr. Bad Vibes, you say. If Fusaichi Pegasus doesn't fire, who can beat him? Good question. I'm leaning toward making a win bet on Captain Steve, who loves Churchill Downs and has been training brilliantly for Bob Baffert. Yeah, he's run third in all three of his races this year, but I think he's ready to make a nice forward move. He'll also be a big
price, maybe 12-1 or more. I also like second favorite The Deputy, High Yield and Aptitude, and I think More Than Ready is a live longshot. My exacta boxes will include them.
I've picked four Derby winners in the past 10 years -- Sunday Silence ($8.20 to win) in 1989; Unbridled ($23.60) in '90; Grindstone ($13.80) in 1996 and Silver Charm ($10) in '97. I've also made clueless stabs with
long-forgotten animals named Rhoman Rule, Vernon Castle and Bull Inthe
Heather. Cashing at overlaid odds in the Derby is a thrill to be savored
long after the winnings are squandered. Losses on longshots are shaken off
quickly.
There's so much silly money to be scooped up if you play the Derby right. Maybe I can bring some home again.
|
Favorite Flops
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|
Year
|
Favorite
|
Finish
|
Winner
|
|
1999
|
Excellent Meeting (a)
|
5th
|
Charismatic
|
|
1998
|
Indian Charlie
|
3rd
|
Real Quiet
|
|
1997
|
Captain Bodgit
|
2nd
|
Silver Charm
|
|
1996
|
Unbridled's Song
|
5th
|
Grindstone
|
|
1995
|
Timber Country
|
3rd
|
Thunder Gulch
|
|
1994
|
Holy Bull
|
12th
|
Go For Gin
|
|
1993
|
Prairie Bayou
|
2nd
|
Sea Hero
|
|
1992
|
Arazi
|
8th
|
Lil E Tee
|
|
1991
|
Hansel
|
10th
|
Strike The Gold
|
|
1990
|
Mister Frisky
|
8th
|
Unbridled
|
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1989
|
Easy Goer (b)
|
2nd
|
Sunday Silence
|
|
1988
|
Private Terms
|
9th
|
Winning Colors
|
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1987
|
Demons Begone
|
17th
|
Alysheba
|
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1986
|
Snow Chief
|
11th
|
Ferdinand
|
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1985
|
Chief's Crown
|
3rd
|
Spend A Buck
|
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1984
|
Althea (c)
|
19th
|
Swale
|
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1983
|
Marfa (d)
|
5th
|
Sunny's Halo
|
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1982
|
Air Forbes Won
|
7th
|
Gato Del Sol
|
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1981
|
Proud Appeal (e)
|
18th
|
Pleasant Colony
|
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1980
|
Rockhill Native
|
5th
|
Genuine Risk
|
(a) coupled with General Challenge
(b) coupled with Awe Inspiring
(c) coupled with Life's Magic
(d) entry with Balboa Native and Total Departure
(e) coupled with Golden Derby
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