|
Post
|
Horse
|
Odds
|
Jockey
|
Trainer
|
|
1
|
Anees (4)
|
20-1
|
Corey Nakatani
|
Alex Hassinger
|
| Eddie Mac says: The 2-year-old champion has won only one race of consequence, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He's run third and fourth in his two races this year, and his trainer has won only a handful of races in 2000. I like his closing style in a race that should have a fast pace, and his Monday workout
was sharp. Still, he hasn't done enough to make a case for him.
|
|
2
|
Aptitude (5)
|
20-1
|
Alex Solis
|
Bobby Frankel
|
| Eddie Mac says: Likely hot pace will aid this deep closer, who is bred to love 1 1/4 miles and beyond. Has only a maiden win in six starts, so I can't see
him winning. Looked good late in the Wood Memorial and will be passing tired horses in the stretch. If you're playing triples and superfectas, don't leave him out.
|
|
3
|
Wheelaway (14)
|
30-1
|
Richard Migliore
|
John Kimmel
|
| Eddie Mac says: Yes, he closed well for third against Keeneland's strong inside speed bias in the Blue Grass, which got a lot of longshot seekers interested. He's not training well in Louisville, though, and not racing at age 2 is a major knock. I love his pedigree (Unbridled), but I think his best races will come in the summer and fall.
|
|
4
|
Hal's Hope (6)
|
20-1
|
Roger Velez
|
Harold Rose
|
| Eddie Mac says: Finished last in the Blue Grass, and even if he hated the track, that was no way to come into the Derby. Beat High Yield with a game effort in the Florida Derby, and has enough speed to contend early. He'll be a pace casualty and will finish up the track.
|
|
5
|
Trippi (1)
|
5-1
|
Jorge Chavez
|
Todd Pletcher
|
| Eddie Mac says: North America's best front-end rider will take this undefeated speedball as far as he can, which probably will be about the
three-sixteenths pole. He's 4-for-4 after wiring the 1 1/8-mile Flamingo, but he didn't run at 2 and never has encountered the big horses. He'll be a factor in shorter races after the Triple Crown.
|
|
6
|
Deputy Warlock (15)
|
30-1
|
Mark Guidry
|
Ken McPeek
|
| Eddie Mac says: I have no idea why McPeek, a good horseman, is pushing this wildly overmatched horse for the Derby. He's run four duds this year, and his three lifetime wins came last year at Hawthorne, Ellis Park and River Downs, minor-league tracks. I hope he doesn't run.
|
|
7
|
Captain Steve (7)
|
8-1
|
Robby Albarado
|
Bob Baffert
|
| Eddie Mac says: He's been third in all three starts this year, but he had a foot problem early on and he's never run well at Santa Anita. Been training
impressively and loves Churchill, where he won a stakes last year. One-paced sort doesn't have an inspiring pedigree for distance, but neither did Baffert's Derby winners, Silver Charm or Real Quiet. A live longshot.
|
|
8
|
War Chant (8)
|
6-1
|
Jerry Bailey
|
Neil Drysdale
|
| Eddie Mac says: Got distracted late when second to The Deputy in the Santa Anita Derby, so Drysdale will put blinkers on him. That might backfire, because it could inject more speed and get him mixed up in a hot early pace. Bailey is North America's best money rider, and this colt has tons of talent. His inexperience (four lifetime starts) is a negative, but he's working well at
Churchill, and his odds (6-1 or 8-1) may be tempting enough to play. One of
the true contenders.
|
|
9
|
More Than Ready (9)
|
10-1
|
John Velazquez
|
Todd Pletcher
|
| Eddie Mac says: Last year he won his first five races and was being called the best Eastern-based 2-year-old since Easy Goer in 1988. Then he lost at a mile and
1 1/16 miles, skipped the Breeders' Cup and was ignored. Has excelled sprinting but has the pedigree to go long, and he may be able to do it after a game second in the Blue Grass. Has won at Churchill and is training
sharply. A longshot with resources.
|
|
10
|
The Deputy (10)
|
4-1
|
Chris McCarron
|
Jenine Sahadi
|
| Eddie Mac says: Irish-bred colt has been the training star in Louisville, and McCarron thinks he has an excellent chance at his third Derby winner. Has switched
from English turf to American dirt without missing a beat, and he's the one most likely to benefit if Fusaichi Pegasus stumbles. He's never been worse than third in nine races, and his easygoing disposition will serve him well
in the madness of Derby Day. Very dangerous. |
|
11
|
China Visit (2)
|
50-1
|
Frankie Dettori
|
Saeed bin Suroor
|
| Eddie Mac says: Has won his only two starts with ease in France and Dubai, but his lack of experience makes him a curiosity with great potential, not a serious
Derby threat. Has no graded-stakes earnings, so he won't get into the race if more than 20 are entered. Has talent but would have been better off staying in the Middle East.
|
|
12
|
Commendable (1a)
|
5-1
|
Edgar Prado
|
D. Wayne Lukas
|
| Eddie Mac says: Belongs at shorter distances against cheaper. Had some traffic trouble when a close-up fourth at Keeneland as the favorite in the 1
1/16-mile Lexington, which was supposed to be his breakthrough race. Forget about him.
|
13
|
Graeme Hall (11)
|
20-1
|
Shane Sellers
|
Todd Pletcher
|
| Eddie Mac says: Upset winner of the Arkansas Derby has run poorly only once in eight career starts, when he encountered a lot of trouble in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Training solidly at Churchill but is not in the league with the stars. Maybe he'll make more noise down the road.
|
|
14
|
Impeachment (1c)
|
5-1
|
Craig Perret
|
Todd Pletcher
|
| Eddie Mac says: Deep closer came from way out of it to get up for third against a so-so group in the Arkansas Derby. The faster the pace, the better his
chances to clunk up late for a piece of the purse, fourth or fifth at best. He's 1-for-6 lifetime, so victory is out of the question.
|
|
15
|
Fusaichi Pegasus (12)
|
9-5
|
Kent Desormeaux
|
Neil Drysdale
|
| Eddie Mac says: Undeniably the best horse in the field, and if he repeats his race in the Wood Memorial, his opponents will be blown away. Worked impressively
Sunday at Churchill after acting up a few times last week. He'll be 8-5 or so, and those odds become doubly tough to take because of his eccentric temperament. If he freaks amid the noisy, mobbed paddock, he may burn up too much energy and leave his chances there.
|
|
16
|
Exchange Rate (13)
|
30-1
|
Calvin Borel
|
D. Wayne Lukas
|
| Eddie Mac says: Looked like a comer during the winter but made no impact in the Louisiana Derby or the Wood Memorial. May have a bright future on the grass, but doesn't belong against the top 3-year-olds in a 1 1/4-mile dirt race at this point in his career.
|
|
17
|
High Yield (1x)
|
5-1
|
Pat Day
|
D. Wayne Lukas
|
| Eddie Mac says: Showed grit and speed in winning the Fountain of Youth and the Blue Grass and running second in the Florida Derby. Leads the Derby field in
earnings, is battle-tested, and has looked and trained great at Churchill. My only knock is his free-running style, which may put him too close to a quick pace. His best races have been on or near the lead, and that could keep him from winning the Derby. Deserves a lot of respect, anyway.
|
|
18
|
Curule (2b)
|
50-1
|
Marlon St. Julien
|
Saeed bin Suroor
|
| Eddie Mac says: Is a Godolphin stablemate of China Visit, but seemingly without the upside. He's a son of 1994 Derby winner Go for Gin, but he has no chance of emulating his father. Like China Visit, has no graded-stakes earnings. A no-hoper.
|
|
19
|
Ronton (16)
|
30-1
|
Brice Blanc
|
Vladimir Cerin
|
| Eddie Mac says: Has no business running in the Derby after that lifeless performance in the Arkansas Derby. Definitely a distance type but he's never
run fast enough to get within shouting distance of the top 3-year-olds. His connections are dreaming.
|
