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Good trip through big field a must to win


LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Buried in the reams of words from the Kentucky Derby trainers is a tried and true nugget from Kenny McPeek.

"He's going to need the perfect trip," said McPeek, trainer of out-of-the-clouds-closer Deputy Warlock.

He could have been speaking for the trainers of virtually each of the 19 Derby starters.

So often, in the jammed Derby field, the winner gets the trip.

"Last year was as bad as I've seen just because the pace fell apart," said John Asher, who has won several Eclipse Awards for his Derby coverage. "Everybody talks about limiting the Derby field, but that would have happened with 10 horses that day the way that thing set up."

Three Ring was expected to set the pace, but she broke poorly. "There was no pace and they all ran in a pack and when they do that, they're going to run into each other," he said.

At the nearby Derby Museum, stroll through the starting gate near the front door and dead ahead is a video wall. Showing is a tight, head-on of 19 horses careening down the stretch toward the first turn and the same view of the same group closing in on the finish line.

Soon after the start, Gary Stevens is wrestling with General Challenge to keep him from running over those in front of him. The horse's head is going sideways and there is blood in his mouth because Stevens is tugging hard on the bit.

At one point, General Challenge rises up and it looks like Stevens is going over the top.

"General Challenge was slammed coming out of the gate and any chance he had to recover was done on the first turn," Asher said.

Part of the favored entry, General Challenge finished 11th.

Asher remembers Valiant Nature in 1994, Sea Hero and Prairie Bayou in 1993, Ferdinand and Rampage in 1986.

Valiant Nature had been thumped by Holy Bull in a Derby prep, Asher said, and trainer Ron McAnally was determined not to get into a speed duel with the favorite. He gave Laffit Pincay Jr. explicit instructions.

"The gate opens, Laffit breaks on top, rides to instructions and snatches him, pulls him back," Asher said. "Meanwhile, (Chris) McCarron sees Holy Bull is not there, he goes on and jumps to the lead."

Go for Gin and McCarron led all the way and won by two lengths.

Full of run, Valiant Nature was boxed in and almost went down in the first turn. In that same traffic jam, Strodes Creek got knocked sideways, lost many lengths and then rallied for second. Discouraged, Valiant Nature finished 13th.

A year earlier, Jerry Bailey on Sea Hero and Mike Smith on Prairie Bayou were eying the same hole at the top of the stretch. "Bailey dives inside, Smith dives inside and Bailey gets there first," Asher said. "He pops on through there and the hole closes. Smith has to take up and take out. Sea Hero bursts through and all of a sudden, you see him three lengths on top coming down the stretch."

Prairie Bayou circled horses and barely beat Wild Gale for second.

"He was compromised by the trip," Asher said. "He was not slammed around or knocked down or anything."

Seven years earlier, Bill Shoemaker and Ferdinand beat Pat Day and Rampage to a similar hole.

"It was just a fraction of a second decision," Asher said. "If ever a horse finished full of run in the Kentucky Derby, it was Rampage."

Full of run, but fourth -- three lengths shy of Ferdinand.

"It's happened as long as we've had Kentucky Derbies," he said, mentioning Dark Star's head victory over native Dancer in 1953. The chart of the race devotes many words to the troubles of Native Dancer -- his only loss in 22 races.

The bumping and grinding can make a difference, but so can the front-runners that slow down right in front of a horse on the move.

Asher believes Saturday's field has a nice group of legitimate speed horses who can carry their speed more than six furlongs -- horses like Trippi, Hal's Hope and More Than Ready.

"I think we've got a bunch of them that want to lay fourth, but that's going to be occupied," Asher said. "Going in, it figures to be at least a race that's run pretty true, but that can all change coming out of the gate."

Such as 1985 when Spend A Buck and Eternal Prince figured to ding-dong for the lead. Instead, Eternal Prince didn't break good and Spend A Buck was long gone.

McPeek believes the horses will separate into three groups, with maybe Deputy Warlock and Aptitude bringing up the rear in the early going.

For closers like them, any impediment is too much.

"Once they gain their momentum, it's over, you've got to keep it," he said. "When he makes that kick, if he has to stop it, then we're beat."


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