Nancy Lieberman

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Tuesday, April 13
Updated: April 16, 10:47 AM ET
 
Hayden is draft's biggest X-factor

By Nancy Lieberman
Special to ESPN.com

Editor's note: This analysis was done prior to any pre-draft trades.

CHARLOTTE | CONNECTICUT | DETROIT | HOUSTON | INDIANA | LOS ANGELES | MINNESOTA
NEW YORK | PHOENIX | SACRAMENTO | SAN ANTONIO | SEATTLE | WASHINGTON

Forget about debating who will be the third overall pick after Diana Taurasi and Alana Beard on Saturday in the 2004 WNBA draft.

LIEBERMAN'S MOCK DRAFT
FIRST ROUND
1. Phoenix: Diana Taurasi
2. Washington: Alana Beard
3. Charlotte: Nicole Powell
4. Connecticut: Lindsay Whalen
5. New York: Vanessa Hayden
6. Seattle: Shameka Christon
7. Minnesota: Christi Thomas
8. Phoenix: Rebekkah Brunson
9. Indiana: Nicole Ohlde
10. Sacramento: Kelly Mazzante
11. Detroit: Shereka Wright
12. Los Angeles: Ebony Hoffman
13. Detroit: Iciss Tillis

The bigger question -- and the one that has the most impact on the first round -- is where Florida senior Vanessa Hayden is selected.

Hayden, who averaged 14.7 points and 10.3 rebounds in her career as a Gator, was projected to be a top-five draft pick, possibly as high as third overall above Stanford's Nicole Powell. Hayden, a 6-foot-4 center who blocked 357 shots and notched 50 double-doubles in college, had a fantastic senior season and was in the best shape of her career. And Hayden only increased her stock with solid performances in the NCAA Tournament, then earned second-team All-America honors.

During a pick-up game on April 1, however, Hayden suffered a broken foot, an injury that's expected to sideline her for eight-to-10 weeks. As a result, some coaches and general managers might have cooled on Hayden, who was expected to be the top post taken. Now, she might drop to the eighth or ninth pick.

A look at what each team needs, and who they might favor, as the draft nears (listed in order of draft pick):

Phoenix Mercury (Nos. 1, 8, 14)
Last year: Finished 8-26, seventh in West.

What they need: The Mercury have the No. 1, 8 and 14 picks and will add plenty of talent. The primary concern is to add a legitimate rebounder, someone who can get in the paint and do some dirty work. Yes, Adrian Williams became Phoenix's first All-Star since 2000 last season, but Williams is a finesse post who prefers the elbow jumper. Phoenix needs a player who's a drop-step post scorer, a specialist down low.

After trading away Tamicha Jackson, Phoenix also might be looking for a backup point guard, and there's some speculation the Mercury will use the 14th pick to trade. Someone such as Sheila Lambert would be a good fit, if she's on the market.

What might happen: There's no doubt here: Three-time NCAA champion Diana Taurasi will be the No. 1 overall pick. Although Taurasi might not fit Phoenix's primary need, you don't pass her up. Most WNBA executives consider Taurasi a better 2-guard than a point guard, but she'll play both in Phoenix and will handle the ball a lot. Taurasi will be outstanding at either position, though she's better and more dangerous with the ball in her hand because she's such a gifted passer.

As for that post need, think Georgia's Christi Thomas, Georgetown's Rebekkah Brunson or Hayden, if she's still around at No. 8. And Chandi Jones might work at that spot, too.

If Phoenix doesn't trade that 14th pick, the possibilities are great. Players such as Kansas State's Nicole Ohlde, Purdue's Shereka Wright, Vanderbilt's Jenni Benningfield, Texas' Stacy Stephens, Louisiana Tech's Catrina Frierson, Tennessee's Ashley Robinson or Colorado's Tera Bjorklund would be a solid pick.

  • WNBA.com's Phoenix Mercury breakdown
  • Washington Mystics (No. 2)
    Last year: Finished 9-25, seventh in East.

    What they need: After trading away Asjha Jones, the Mystics need post help. If that sounds familiar, it should -- Washington needed a post last year, too. But while the Mystics selected a post in last year's dispersal draft, they picked the wrong one. Jenny Mowe never worked out, and a year later, Washington's in the same situation. Murriel Page and Chasity Melvin are solid players, but Washington's inside game hasn't been the same since Vicky Bullett retired.

    Washington might also be shopping for a guard since Annie Burgess' style of play might not complement the system first-year coach Michael Adams wants to run. Adams also has said he wants another 3 or a wing-type player to back up Chamique Holdsclaw.

    What might happen: Like Phoenix with Taurasi, Washington can't overlook Duke's Alana Beard, who won every national player of the year award except the Naismith (Taurasi). Beard gets it done at both ends of the floor, and she can play the 2-3 to give Holdsclaw some help. But Beard's addition might also make for some surprising lineup adjustments. Tamicha Jackson, recently acquired via a trade, will play point guard, with Beard at the 2. That means Coco Miller and Stacey Dales-Schuman, excellent shooters who both started last season, will likely come off the bench, unless they somehow outplay Beard -- who's just as quick, strong and conditioned -- in camp. Miller did have a tremendous season last year, and excelled with the freedom Marianne Stanley gave her.

    With Jackson at the point, there's no doubt this will be an uptempo team. Add Beard, Holdsclaw, maybe Page and Melvin, and that's a pretty fast starting five.

  • WNBA.com's Washington Mystics breakdown
  • Charlotte Sting (No. 3)
    Last year: Finished 18-16, tied for second in East.

    What they need: The Sting need a lot as their players get older, especially 34-year-old Dawn Staley and Andrea Stinson (36). Last season was the first time in franchise history that Stinson didn't lead the team in scoring. Every backup point guard they've brought in for Staley over the past few years has moved on (Sheila Lambert's now at Detroit), so that's one need. The backcourt took another hit when Charlotte also traded away Kelly Miller.

    Another big question is Charlotte's frontcourt. After an All-Star season in 2002, Tammy Sutton-Brown struggled last year, and the Sting might look to add a big. Yes, they've signed several already, including Olympia Scott-Richardson and Kara Wolters, but many believe the team is not happy with the bigs it has and is looking to put together a trade.

    What might happen: Vanessa Hayden's injury affects the Sting as much or more than any other team. Before her injury, Hayden was strongly being considered as the third pick because of Charlotte's needs, but can the Sting take a chance on waiting months for her return? Instead, Stanford's Nicole Powell is likely going to be the pick here. Her versatility would provide Charlotte a lot of flexibility with its lineup. With Staley at the point and Stinson at the 2, Powell could easily slide into the starting 3 spot. If Charlotte wants a bigger lineup at times, Powell could play the 2. You can't really lose with this pick because there are so many great players available, including Lindsay Whalen or Chandi Jones. But Powell is big, strong, a great passer and just awesome in the open court. She can do anything you need her to do, and right now, that might be the best fit.

  • WNBA.com's Charlotte Sting breakdown
  • Connecticut Sun (No. 4)
    Last year: Finished 18-16, tied for second in East.

    What they need: After All-Star point guard Shannon Johnson was traded away to the San Antonio Silver Stars in exchange for the fourth overall pick in the draft, Connecticut was left without a point guard. That is the glaring need Saturday.

    What might happen: If she's still available, Lindsay Whalen will wind up playing for the Sun, and she shouldn't have any problems starting in the WNBA. She is the best passer in this senior class -- yes, including Diana Taurasi -- and Connecticut will build its starting lineup around the Minnesota standout.

    If Charlotte takes Whalen at No. 3, an obvious alternative would be picking Stanford's Nicole Powell. But this team also needs some help inside, so the Sun might take a different route and look at Arkansas' Shameka Christon, the SEC player of the year. And of course, Vanessa Hayden remains the X-factor.

  • WNBA.com's Connecticut Sun breakdown
  • New York Liberty (No. 5)
    Last year: Finished 16-18, tied for fifth in East.

    What they need: Before her injury, New York really liked Vanessa Hayden. The Liberty's post situation is suspect. Tari Phillips is currently nursing a hand injury, and her fitness is questionable. Tamika Whitmore is a free agent and said to be working on finding a way to Los Angeles. And you can't count on Elena Baranova and Ann Wauters until they actually arrive at camp, simply because these European players have other responsibilities that have affected their commitment to the WNBA in the past.

    In its backcourt, New York has the ever-reliable Vickie Johnson and should get Becky Hammon back after the guard suffered a torn ACL 11 games into last season. But New York really doesn't have a guard that's capable of breaking down opponents off the dribble.

    What might happen: If Hayden were healthy, this would be a no-brainer. But someone such as Chandi Jones or Shameka Christon might be the right fit here now.

  • WNBA.com's New York Liberty breakdown
  • Seattle Storm (No. 6)
    Last year: Finished 18-16, tied for fourth in West.

    What they need: Seattle doesn't have a true 3, and that's the biggest need. Although the Storm would probably love to pick up some backup inside for Lauren Jackson and Kamila Vodichkova, they need to fill that starting position first.

    What might happen: This one could play out a couple ways: Seattle could look at drafting Shameka Christon, Chandi Jones or maybe Shereka Wright. Or, the Storm might look to trade to get a veteran 3.

    The other direction Seattle might take in the draft is looking at Nicole Ohlde. With Sue Bird, Betty Lennox and Jackson, this team isn't looking to sit in the halfcourt unless it has to. Ohlde runs the floor and is an athletic post who can score and has point-guard skills. She would fit in well in this uptempo offense. Vodichkova will remain the glue to this team, but she's best when she's facing the basket. Ohlde could give the Storm some different looks inside off the bench.

  • WNBA.com's Seattle Storm breakdown
  • Minnesota Lynx (No. 7)
    Last year: Finished 18-16, tied for fourth in West.

    What they need: The Lynx have plenty of talent and a good backcourt, which also got a boost from adding Helen Darling in the dispersal draft. So Minnesota could probably best use another big. The Lynx have several wing-type players, but could stand to add someone inside.

    What might happen: Minnesota would love to be able to move up in the draft to pick hometown favorite Lindsay Whalen, but that's unlikely. The Lynx will probably look first to Georgia's Christi Thomas, but also will consider Georgetown's Rebekkah Brunson or Kansas State's Nicole Ohlde. Thomas might be the best option -- how do pass over a 6-foot-5 big who can score? -- though they play different styles. Ohlde isn't a back-to-the-basket type post.

  • WNBA.com's Minnesota Lynx breakdown
  • Indiana Fever (No. 9)
    Last year: Finished 16-18, tied for fifth in East.

    What they need: Indiana's perimeter is pretty set with Niele Ivey, Kelly Miller, Coretta Brown and Tamika Catchings, but it might be hard to pass up even more added scoring punch if Houston's Chandi Jones is available. Still, the Fever's only post players are Natalie Williams and Kristen Rasmussen.

    What might happen: If Indiana doesn't take Jones, the Fever will likely go big -- so again we're looking at Nicole Ohlde, Christi Thomas, Vanessa Hayden and Rebekkah Brunson. Hayden probably isn't available, so it'll come down to the type of post that best fits Indiana's needs. Ohlde is the more skilled offensive player, but Brunson has better defensive skills. She's long and lanky and can run and block shots. Brunson might not be as refined offensively, but she does have the ability to guard the 3-4, and that's important in this league when you're talking about players such as Chamique Holdsclaw or Sheryl Swoopes.

  • WNBA.com's Indiana Fever breakdown
  • Sacramento Monarchs (No. 10)
    Last year: Finished 19-15, third in West.

    What they need: The Monarchs are loaded at the 3-4 with DeMya Walker and Tangela Smith, but the 2-3 is really aging with Lady Grooms, Ruthie Bolton and Edna Campbell. Sacramento's biggest need is a shooter. The Monarchs aren't getting much offense from point guard Ticha Penicheiro, so a 2 who can score should be the first priority.

    What might happen: This pick has Kelly Mazzante written all over it. She still has better range than Sacramento's Kara Lawson and will force opposing defenses to come out and guard her, which will open things up inside for Walker, Smith and Yolanda Griffith.

  • WNBA.com's Sacramento Monarchs breakdown
  • Detroit Shock (Nos. 11, 13)
    Last year: Finished 24-10, first in East.

    What they need: Coach Bill Laimbeer has indicated he's going big, which would probably provide some good backup for Ruth Riley and Cheryl Ford.

    What might happen: Laimbeer liked what he saw out of Rebekkah Brunson at the pre-draft camp and he's believed to be trying to move up in the draft to make sure Detroit can get her. He's also very high on Georgia's Christi Thomas as well as Ebony Hoffman, though this seems high for the USC senior.

    If he can't get a big, he might look at Shereka Wright. Keep in mind that Laimbeer traded to get Stacey Thomas toward the playoffs last season simply because he wanted to add a defensive stopper. Wright fits that bill, too, though she has more offense in her repertoire than Thomas. With the 13th pick, Duke's Iciss Tillis might hear her name called.

  • WNBA.com's Detroit Shock breakdown
  • Los Angeles Sparks (No. 12)
    Last year: Finished 24-10, first in West.

    What they need: Los Angeles' perimeter is solid, but the Sparks could use a backup three and somebody to help fill in for DeLisha Milton-Jones, who will miss at least some of the season with a torn ACL suffered during offseason training with the U.S. national team. If, however, a trade does bring Tamika Whitmore to L.A., there won't be as much of an immediate need for post help.

    With Tamecka Dixon, Mwadi Mabika, Nikki Teasley and Lisa Leslie, the Sparks are a really good team. But they suffered a lot of injuries last season and might just take the best player available.

    What might happen: L.A. would love someone like Shameka Christon, but she won't be available. Maybe Shereka Wright fits the bill. But don't count out local girl Lindsay Taylor of UC Santa Barbara, although she seems to be more of second-round pick.

  • WNBA.com's Los Angeles Sparks breakdown
  • Neither San Antonio nor Houston have first-round draft picks, so they're looking at taking the best athlete available by the time they're on the clock. But here's the skinny on what's going on in each franchise:

    San Antonio Silver Stars (No. 21)
    Last year: Finished 12-22, sixth in West.

    The skinny: The Silver Stars had the best offseason of any team, making several great acquisitions, most notably Shannon Johnson from Connecticut and LaToya Thomas in the dispersal draft. And although San Antonio fell out of the playoff hunt very early last season, keep in mind that the Silver Stars split their final 12 games and were playing exceptionally well down the stretch, compiling two wins each over Los Angeles and Seattle and another victory over Houston.

    San Antonio is more solid in the middle than ever, and has two of the best young players in the game in Thomas and Gwen Jackson. Johnson's the point guard for the Olympic team, and don't forget about Marie Ferdinand, who has developed into a savvy veteran. LaTonya Johnson is another wonderful player to have on your roster, Semeka Randall is only getting smarter, and Adrienne Goodson is coming off another solid season.

  • WNBA.com's San Antonio Silver Stars breakdown
  • Houston Comets (No. 26)
    Last year: Finished 20-14, second in West.

    The skinny: Since Ukari Figgs isn't returning and Janeth Arcain is skipping the 2004 season, the Comets need to find a point guard and work on their backcourt. They will have several point guard candidates in camp, from Felicia Ragland to Gordana Grubin. They also traded for Kedra Holland-Corn and Nicky McCrimmon, and this looks to be shaping up like Houston's very first season, when coach Van Chancellor had his players fight it out for a starting spot.

  • WNBA.com's Houston Comets breakdown
  • Other possible second-round picks: Jenni Benningfield, Kaayla Chones, Stacy Stephens, Erika Valek, Trina Frierson, Amber Jacobs, Ashley Robinson, Doneeka Hodges, Lindsay Taylor, Tera Bjorklund, Cathy Joens, Ugo Oha, Candace Sutton.

    Nancy Lieberman, an ESPN analyst and Hall of Famer, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com's women's basketball coverage. Contact her at www.nancylieberman.com.




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