Mechelle Voepel

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Thursday, April 15
 
When it comes to draft, there are no experts

By Mechelle Voepel
Special to ESPN.com

People with odd habits/hobbies are not really "odd'' in the newspaper business. They're an expected part of the environment, like big plants in a doctor's office or aquariums in Chinese restaurants.

So I once had a co-worker tell of a guy he used to work with who collected pictures that moved over the wire service of ... nuns. Doing all sorts of stuff while wearing their habits: ice-skating, flying kites, sailing, tap-dancing, riding bikes, skateboarding, playing croquet ...

I thought I was being funny: "Does he have any pictures of flying nuns?''

"Like Sally Field? No,'' my co-worker said. "But one day he said, 'I wish somebody would take a picture of nuns piloting a dirigible.' And within, like, a week ... guess what showed up on the wire?''

I could have said, "Prove it,'' but it's easier to just believe these things. Anyway, this was in the pre-Internet/satellite TV days, yet you still could become completely obsessed with very specific things. Now, our computers and TVs have helped us become even more so.

So we have "experts'' on any kind of thing you can imagine. However, is anybody really an expert on the WNBA draft? Not yet.

With the WNBA now entering its eighth season, there's more of a general idea about what qualities/abilities will translate well into the league. But there's still a lot less "draft science'' in the women's game.

All that said, what looks as if it will happen in this draft?

Diana Taurasi is going first, to Phoenix. Done deal, makes perfect sense. Duke's Alana Beard won most of the individual-award hardware this season, trying to appear pleased but really looking like she wanted to pack it all in a box and shove it in a closet. Beard, whose final college season ended in the Elite Eight, is expected to go No. 2 to Washington.

But shortly after Stanford's loss to Tennessee in the Elite Eight, Cardinal coach Tara VanDerveer was making the case that her senior star, Nicole Powell, might be a better fit for Washington. Powell certainly put on a good show in front of Tennessee coach/Mystics player personnel consultant Pat Summitt at the Midwest Regional.

And, if Lindsay Whalen is not taken in the first three, she will go to Connecticut with the fourth pick. Minnesota, of course, wants Whalen very much, and did make a trade to get the No. 6 pick to go along with the No. 7 it already had. That still doesn't seem likely to add up to Whalen, but who knows?

And that phrase -- who knows? -- is what makes drafts fun. Even the hyper-analyzed NFL draft has its surprises. On any draft day, like the beginning of a season, everybody's outlook is bright.

But whose careers will stay that way? That's the tough part to figure. Some WNBA coaches spend a lot more time watching and evaluating than others do. Some "cram'' late. Some are just "passing through'' the WNBA, others ended up in the league with little or no history of paying much attention to women's basketball.

In college, the game is largely innocent. College women still mostly go to class, don't get in trouble and either fully embrace or at least accept the concept of teamwork.

There are not many successful college teams -- women or men -- in which the players don't have a pretty strong bond with each other. In the women's game, you will hear the phrase "like sisters'' used quite a bit. There is a lot of ego-deflecting. Whether it's forced or sincere, most seem to follow that code.

The WNBA is a business ... but some of the college feeling can be maintained. Depends on the players and the coach. We've already seen, in the first seven seasons, top teams that were not very cohesive in terms of interpersonal relationships, but clicked well on the floor.

And we've seen teams that looked as if the players would want to spend time with each other away from basketball. We have naive players, who perhaps maintained an insularity throughout college, mixing with those who are happy to be away from the structure and boundaries of school.

Just as someone examines who she is over the four years of college, she'll do the same thing in the first years of the so-called real world. And what does that all have to do with the draft?

A lot. Right now, if you asked all of the draft-potential seniors, they'll say they really want to keep playing. As far as they know, that's true.

Within the next few years, though, some of them likely will put their discipline and focus into other things. They'll move away from playing by choice. Some will battle injuries and/or face the reality that their ability doesn't get the job done in the pros. They'll move away from playing reluctantly.

Others will find basketball has become more job than joy, but be OK with that. And some will take to the pro game very well. It won't even be that drastically different from what they've known up until now.

The coaches/GMs who've done more homework have a better chance of gauging the future development, in that regard, of the draftees. Others are going to evaluate completely on what physical talent they've seen.

Is there a lot of that in this draft? We've certainly all been saying there is. Now, we're close to finding out which pieces go to which puzzles. It's still awhile, though, before we'll know if they fit.

Mechelle Voepel of the Kansas City Star is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. She can be reached at mvoepel@kcstar.com.




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