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Thursday, November 18
War Room: Seahawks at Chiefs


Seattle offense vs. Kansas City defense
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 26
Pass 18
Tot. Yds. 24
Scoring 8
Int's allowed 5
Sacks allowed 24
   
CHIEFS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 8
vs. Pass 19
Total yds. allowed 12
# of Ints. 15
# of Sacks 20
Turnover differential +10
The frustrating aspect of preparing for the Seahawks is the fact that the team ranks 22nd in total offense, but are atop the AFC West by two full games. With the return of WR Joey Galloway, this offense is now capable of diversifying their attack even more. RB Ricky Watters is going to be the biggest beneficiary of the more explosive receiving corps, because the team will be running a lot more four receiver sets with Watters handling the running duties as the I-back.

The interesting aspect of this matchup against the Chiefs is how willing the Kansas City will be to gamble on defense. Kansas City is playing an aggressive, risk-taking scheme that features a lot of blitz and stunt action underneath. The Chiefs are going to take risks in order to play eight men close to the line of scrimmage to stuff the run and get pressure on QB Jon Kitna.

The key to running the ball for the Seahawks will be to beat the blitz early on in the game. If Kitna can make the Chiefs pay for cheating up front, Kansas City will be forced to back off some of the pressure and use more nickel and dime personnel to keep up with the Seahawks wide-open attack.

Kansas City is confident in its corners ability to shut down any receiver duo in the league. This will be the biggest key of the game. CB's James Hasty and Chris Dishman will matchup in man-to-man coverage on WR's Joey Galloway and Derrick Mayes.

On the outside, Kansas City should be able to take the receivers out of the game. It is in the middle of the field where the Chiefs have been most susceptible and the Seahawks have been most effective. When Kansas City blitzes their linebackers and brings up SS Reggie Tongue to play closer to the line of scrimmage, they leave the middle of the field vacant and become vulnerable to the skinny post and crossing routes. Galloway will run a lot of sideline routes and look to get vertical on the outside in order to draw extra attention from FS Jerome Wood .

The critical players are WR's Derrick Mayes and Sean Dawkins and TE Christian Fauria. The Chiefs were burnt in the middle of the field last week by TE Dave Moore on a 34-yard seam route that took advantage of the vacated area in the middle of the field. The Seahawks will look to use Fauria and even Mayes and Dawkins to get their man on their back and get position streaking down the middle of the field. This is a situation where Seattle could really flourish.

Kitna has an excellent feel for the middle of the field, and he has been throwing the skinny post as well as anyone in the league this season. The Chiefs will get a lot of pressure and do an excellent job of keeping the running game in check, but they are also going to give up the big-play that could cost them the game because of their offense's inability to score points.

Kansas City offense vs. Seattle defense
CHIEFS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 10
Pass 22
Tot. Yds. 17
Scoring 10
Int's allowed 8
Sacks allowed 11
   
SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 19
vs. Pass 26
Total yds. allowed 26
# of Ints. 20
# of Sacks 23
Turnover differential +1
There isn't anything spectacular about what the Chiefs are doing up front on offense. In the run game, they are using some pulls and traps inside on occasion, but for the most part they are lining up, finding a man and getting after you. This scheme is predicated on the fact that they are running the ball right at teams.

RB's Donnell Bennett and Bam Morris are two powerful backs that will wear down defenses, but they are not capable of making the big play. The Chiefs are averaging 3.6-yards per carry and that is exactly what they want to be doing. It will be the Seahawks responsibility to keep on their toes defensively against an offense that is fully capable of lulling you to sleep.

When studying the Chiefs run game, it became very clear that they are not scheming to create any big plays. Bennett and Morris both have poor vision and little change of direction, but they attack the hole and they seldom lose yardage. Do not expect to see the Seahawks blitz a lot on first and second downs.

Teams have been successful this season when playing base sets against the Chiefs and making sure to keep responsibility. Seattle will walk up SS Darryl Williams on a lot of run-down situations as an extra linebacker to plug the six-and-seven holes.

The Chiefs are one of the most efficient teams off the play action in the league, but they are having trouble getting the ball to their playmakers. Kansas City is pounding the ball out at teams and have been able to create a lot of man-to-man matchups off the play fake, but they have not been getting the ball down the field, instead they are picking up ten and twelve yards off the fake. This would be great for most teams, but the Chiefs do not throw the ball much, and have a tough time picking up a lot of first downs because their running attack is extremely stale. It has worked against some of the poor teams in the league, but not against good defensive teams like the Seahawks.

WR Derrick Alexander and TE Tony Gonzalez are the team's true weapons. They have six TD receptions between them, and they have not been used nearly enough. The Seahawks are going to provoke the Chiefs to go up top with the ball and test them down the field. Seattle will only use four man rushes on a lot of passing situations, because they are getting a good rush from their defensive line, and it allows the linebackers to drop into coverage.

The Chiefs will try to isolate Alexander and Gonzalez to one side of the field in order to give them single-coverage to work against. The biggest key will be QB Elvis Grbac's ability to take advantage of these matchups with limited time to work in the pocket. Grbac seems comfortable with his receivers and in this system, but he is still not making some of the throws. And when you only take few chances in the passing game, Grbac has to take advantage of these well-designed matchups.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category SEA KC
Punt return avg. 1 10
Kickoff return avg. 9 19
Opp. punt return avg. 21 4
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 1 4
Time of possession 26 13
Todd Peterson is off to a nice start, connecting on 20-of-23. Peterson is third in the league in field goal percentage and has added a long of 51 yards. Charlie Rogers has been a big boost to the return game, averaging 16.1-yards per punt return, but he has had trouble looking the ball in and holding on to it, so we might see Joey Galloway handling some of the duties if the rookie does not become more reliable with the ball.

Pete Stoyanovich has had a disappointing start to the '99 season, missing five of his first 18 field goal attempts. He has shown a great leg, but his mechanics seem to be a bit inconsistent. Daniel Pope has been somewhat inconsistent, but his excellent hang time has limited teams returns. He is averaging 42.0- yards per punt, but has only landed 11 inside the opponents' twenty-yard line. Tamarick Vanover has been nicked up for the past few weeks, but he should be returning punts this week. Vanover was averaging 10.7-yards per return before being injured.

Key matchups
  • Seattle WR Sean Dawkins vs. Kansas City CB Eric Warfield
    With Joey Galloway back, the Seahawks have a very deep and dangerous receiving corps. Dawkins is now being used a lot as the No. 3 receiver out of the slot and will draw a lot of man-to-man matchups with nickel corner Eric Warfield. Warfield has had an impressive first year, holding up against teams throwing at him all season long. This is a critical matchup, because the Chiefs cannot afford to give Warfield help with his matchups if they expect to get a good pass rush.

  • Seattle OC Kevin Glover vs. Kansas City MLB Marvcus Patton
    Glover will be responsible for getting out and chipping the linebacker in the run game and will also have to pick up the blitzing Patton on passing downs. Patton is not a prototypical middle linebacker, because he is undersized and very athletic. The fact that he is not a mammoth linebacker is an advantage for the smaller Glover, but Glover is going to have some trouble with Patton's speed and quickness when he needs to lock on.

  • Kansas City WR Derrick Alexander vs. Seattle CB Shawn Springs
    This is the marquee matchup in the passing game and will be the source of some big plays throughout the contest. The Chiefs passing game is hardly prolific, but they will lull defenses to sleep and then hit them with the play-action down the field. Springs, in our opinion, is one of the top three cover corners in the game and will be able to shut down Alexander in single-man coverage as long as he does not bite on the play fake.

    Seattle will win if...
  • MLB Anthony takes advantage of blitz lanes created by the double team on Cortez Kennedy. Cortez Kennedy will undoubtedly draw the double team up front on Sunday, which will leave some bigger creases for Simmons to attack in the blitz package. Simmons has great instincts and will feel out the lane, but he needs to show better moves in pass rush when he is being blocked by the back in pass protection.

  • They spread the field with their now-explosive wide receiver corps. With Galloway back on the field, the Seahawks become one of the most potent passing attacks in the NFL. Seattle should benefit from running a lot of four-receiver sets, forcing defenses to play more nickel and zone coverage, which will in turn neutralize the Chief's pass rush and open up more running lanes for RB Ricky Watters to work with.

  • They make greater use of tight end Christian Fauria in the passing game. Fauria is a sure-handed tight end with better than average athletic ability. With such a prolific outside passing attack, teams are going to be forced to exert a lot of attention to the receiving corps, which should open up a lot of room for Fauria to work with underneath. Teams will be forced to play lots of nickel packages, which will mean that Fauria will have size advantages and should be able to use his body to get great position.

    Kansas City will win if...

  • They take risks defensively versus Seattle's balanced offensive attack. Kansas City plays an aggressive, attacking style of defense, and leads the league in takeaway/giveaway because of it. Just because they are playing against a very balanced Seattle offense is no reason to play more base sets and honest on defense. The Chiefs need to get in the face of QB Jon Kitna, and force the inexperienced quarterback to make costly mistakes.

  • WR Kevin Lockett keeps up his production on third down. Locket has become the team's best option on third down. He has eleven catches for 247 yards this season on third down, all coming off the bench in an offense that has been selective in the passing game. Lockett has shown great burst and an ability to break free from press coverage, which has made him a reliable option on a lot of 3rd and around 4-7-yards-to-go.

  • The offense gets the ball to its weapons. The Chiefs live on offense by pounding away on the ground with Donnell Bennett and Bam Morris to soften defenses for the 4th quarter. It has worked against some of the poor teams in the league, but not against a good offensive teams like the Colts. WR Derrick Alexander and TE Tony Gonzalez are the team's true weapons. They have six TD receptions between them, and they have not been used nearly enough.

    The War Room edge
    The Chiefs have a chance to pull within one game in the AFC West standings on Sunday against a Seahawks team that is playing as good of football as anyone in the National Football League. With the return of WR Joey Galloway to the team, Seattle is now one of the most balanced and explosive offenses in the League. The Chiefs are looking to disrupt that balance with an aggressive style of defense that has them atop the league in the turnover margin at plus ten. Kansas City's defense will keep them in this game, but their biggest concern is losing the game on the offensive side of the ball. The Chiefs are tough to beat in Arrowhead Stadium, but Seattle is tough to beat these days period. Expect a low scoring struggle and a Seahawks win on turnovers and big plays on both sides of the ball.

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