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| Wednesday, November 17 Updated: November 18, 6:09 PM ET War Room: Patriots at Dolphins The War Room |
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Editor's note: This is a sneak peek at an in-depth NFL game preview from The War Room, an ESPN.com associate partner. The rest of the War Room previews are available to ESPN.com Insiders. Click here to sign up.
New England offense vs. Miami defense
The Buffalo Bills proved last week that Miami was susceptible to a straight-ahead running game that targeted the Dolphins' mammoth defensive tackles, Daryl Gardener and Tim Bowens. The Pats feel they can do much of the same against Miami, even though they do not have the horses up front that the Bills have. The key to running the ball on Miami is to double-team either Bowens or Gardener and get a seal off block on the other. Middle linebacker Zach Thomas is one of the most active linebackers in the league, but it is no secret that he has trouble when teams run directly at him. The critical player in this equation is going to be fullback Chris Carter, who will be responsible for an isolation block on Thomas. Ordinarily, center Damien Woody would get out and chip the middle linebacker, but he will be occupied on the double team. This is the key to setting up the passing game, because the Dolphins safeties are so conscious of run support. In order to set up single coverage on the outside, the Patriots must be able to get the safeties to bite on play-action fakes. Another critical player for the Patriots is going to be tight end Ben Coates. Coates' production has dropped this season, due in part to lots of double teams and a passing scheme that has required the All-Pro to stay in to block in pass protection. The Dolphins love to walk up strong safety Shawn Wooden and play him over the tight end. Wooden's responsibility is to key on the tight end. If Coates stays in, then Wooden either comes on the blitz or plays contain in run support. If Coates runs off the line of scrimmage, then Wooden is responsible to cover the tight end. Coates is going to have to be able to sell the block and release off the play-fake, giving him an extra step off the line of scrimmage and giving him some extra room to work in the middle of the field. The Patriots will obviously draw tight man-to-man coverage from cornerbacks Terrell Buckley and Sam Madison on the outside. And with the safeties cheating up in run support, look for New England to target the deep middle of the field in the passing game, either by getting the tight end down the seam, or by running a lot of crossing routes and skinny posts to get position to the inside on the Dolphins corners.
Miami offense vs. New England defense
Miami has been forced to play close to the vest offensively, cutting down half the field in the passing game to simplify Huard's reads. The Patriots are going to run a similar scheme to the Bills last week, congesting the middle of the field and forcing Huard to throw the ball to the outside. This scheme works twofold now that rookie J.J Johnson is Miami's starting running back. The Patriots will walk up strong safety Lawyer Milloy and play him over tight end Troy Drayton. Milloy will key Drayton off the line, covering the tight end if he releases and playing run support or coming on the blitz if Drayton stays in to block. Johnson is a powerful back who will pick up all the yardage there is to get between the tackles, but he is not imaginative and does not pose much of a threat to bounce the ball outside. This plays into New England's scheme perfectly, because it allows Pete Carroll's defense to bunch it inside, giving the Dolphins a 4-4 look to shut down the run and cover the underneath and middle of the passing game. If New England can take away the middle of the field and cover the backs out of the backfield, Huard becomes a liability for the Dolphins. Miami's receiving corps is efficient and capable of taking advantage of man-to-man coverage by cornerbacks Ty Law and Steve Israel, but Huard is incapable of making the throws with any consistency. New England will take the risk on the outside in single-coverage and will force Huard to make the throws, something that he has been unable to since taking over the starting job.
Special teams
The Dolphins return teams have been stellar. Nate Jacquet is leading the league in punt returns with an average of 18.1 yards, and Brock Marion is fourth in the league with a 26.5-yards per kickoff return. New England's Adam Vinatieri is still one of the most consistent kickers in the league. His mechanics are impeccable, and he has shown the ability to handle the conditions at Foxboro Stadium. Lee Johnson has been tailing off the past couple of weeks, and some are concerned about his ability to handle the weather and are wondering how effective he will be down the stretch. The encouraging news for the Pats' special teams is the play of kickoff returner Kevin Faulk. The rookie from LSU has been improving each week and seems more comfortable with his lanes and blocking scheme. His continued progress was highlighted by a 95-yard return that sparked the entire Patriots team.
Key matchups
The Dolphins love to leave their corners alone on an island with receivers and allow them to play physical, press coverage. The Patriots receivers have given defensive coordinators headaches with their ability to beat man-to-man coverage and draw attention form the safeties. If the Dolphins are able to take the New England receivers out of the picture, it allows the safeties to cover Coates and the running backs out of the backfield, and it also allows them to help in run support.
Thomas is one of the most active middle linebackers in the NFL, and he creates all sorts of matchup problems for offensive lines. On running downs, New England will send Woody out to chip Thomas, but Thomas does an excellent job of shedding blocks from centers and getting to the ball-carrier. On passing downs, New England's guards are going to have their hands full against the Dolphins defensive tackles, which means that Woody is going to have to account for Thomas every time he comes on the blitz.
Milloy has become an extra linebacker in the Patriots run' defense, giving New England a 4-4 look against the run. Johnson is going to have to take advantage of cutback lanes inside against the Patriots, because he will be unable to string it out and win the race to the sideline with Milloy close to the line of scrimmage in run support.
The Patriots will win if ...
The Dolphins will win if ...
The War Room edge If New England can force the Dolphins to throw the ball to win, they have a great chance to capitalize on turnovers and possibly steal this one on the road. This will be a game of fireworks with a lot of lead changes and big plays. The Dolphins likely will bounce back at home, winning a high-scoring, close game with a solid running game and great play from their secondary.
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