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Updated: March 5, 3:40 PM ET Guide to Championship Week By Andy Katz ESPN.com |
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Championship Week finally gets going for the big boys in conference tournaments that actually make money and serve more of a purpose than giving the home team a chance to move from the bottom of a league to the Big Dance.
The smaller conference tournaments become upset specials (see: Horizon, OVC and MAAC), and the best teams from these conferences end up getting snubbed. The NIT is supposed to protect these regular season champions this season with the expansion to 40 teams, but the NCAA Tournament doesn't owe them any favors. And the majority of the lower profile conferences aren't playing for multiple bids. That's not the case this week within the nation's top 10 conference's tournaments. The only conference that doesn't have a conference tournament (well, at least not a planned one) is the Ivy, which sort of might have one anyway. The Ivy League will have a three-team playoff if Penn beats Princeton on Tuesday at the Palestra. If that happens, Penn, Princeton and Yale will all be tied for first place. Penn would win the tiebreaker and get a "first-round" bye by virtue of a 3-1 record against the other two teams (Yale would be 2-2 and Princeton 1-3). Yale would play Princeton, likely March 7 at a neutral site, while Penn would play the winner at a neutral site, likely March 9. If Princeton wins Tuesday then the Tigers get the bid. The rest of the major conferences aren't so simple to dissect. Here is a quick guide to follow when the games start Wednesday afternoon. (Conferences are listed in order of regular-season RPI strength.)
The host Golden Hurricane have had a few near-misses with Hawaii and Fresno State and have the bitter taste of losing to Hawaii on their home court last season for the NCAA Tournament berth. The Golden Hurricane also has the guard play to get hot for three days. There is more at stake for Tulsa, with the Golden Hurricane in desperate need of a few more quality wins, let alone the tournament title, to ensure a berth. Tulsa is still searching for those marquee wins and beating Hawaii would finally give the committee a reason to ensure the Hurricane are in the Dance. The problem is that Tulsa will get a potential sleeper in the semifinal against either Louisiana Tech or Fresno State, assuming Tulsa beats the winner of Boise State-UTEP. Fresno State still has the best player in the league in Melvin Ely and the Bulldogs have won in Tulsa before, making the task of winning the automatic bid not as insurmountable as it seems. Louisiana Tech is one of the hottest teams in the league and has the athleticism and size to be disruptive in a three-day tournament. Nevada is coming off a win over Hawaii and has to be confident that it can do it again a week later. Likely number of bids: Two if Tulsa can get to the final, regardless of whether not the Golden Hurricane wins the tournament. Three could be reach but isn't out of the question if Hawaii loses in the semifinals and a third team beats Tulsa in the final for the title.
It might sound crazy to pick the team that isn't even on the bubble as the team to beat, but the Owls are playing the best basketball in the conference. Temple has won nine of 10 games and the Owls are finally healthy at the right time. Temple is shooting the ball better than it ever has and is getting boards and not giving up easy baskets. Lynn Greer has been sensational the past week and is clearly one of the best leaders in the country. He continues to make money shots when the game is on the line. Temple doesn't have the ranking, the power rating or the gaudy record -- but the Owls are the team everyone fears. And get this: They won't have to play either Saint Joseph's or Xavier until the final, putting them in position to get the bid. Saint Joseph's still has the talent to win the league's automatic bid, and a win in the tournament will spoil Temple's chances, not Xavier. The Musketeers are a lock. But the Hawks can't seem to close out the tough, tight games and might have trouble keeping David West in check in a likely semifinal matchup with Xavier. But the Hawks will have the homecourt edge, even if the game isn't at Hawk Hill or the Palestra. The Bonnies, meanwhile, have J.R. Bremer, a take-over-the-game scorer. But the Bonnies' helter-skelter style might not play as well over three days and winning four games for the title is one of the hardest things to accomplish in college basketball. Likely number of bids: Two if anyone else beside Xavier wins the tournament.
The host Bearcats are playing for more than the Conference USA trophy. Cincinnati is in contention for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati is the host, but the tournament is not at the Shoemaker Center. Instead it's at nearby Firstar Center and the Bearcats should still have the edge in fan support with Louisville a close second. The Bearcats aren't playing their best basketball of late, as evidence by a loss at Louisville and a near-miss to Memphis in overtime. But Cincinnati still has the player of the year and the winner in Steve Logan to take over games. Louisville is the second hottest team in the field, getting on the bubble with wins over Cincinnati and Charlotte this week. TCU is playing its last game or games under Billy Tubbs, who is resigning at the end of the season, and has the talent to cause problems for teams like Marquette and Memphis. Both Saint Louis and Tulane have had moments this season where they have looked like contenders in this league. Likely number of bids: Four if Charlotte can get to the final with a win over the Bearcats, or Louisville pulls off a major run to the title, to join Cincy, Marquette and Memphis.
The Cowboys are playing the best basketball in the league, beating Utah at home Saturday for the conference title. Wyoming has played well under pressure this season and shouldn't be bothered by the scrutiny of their case for an NCAA bid. The Cowboys don't have the RPI to make a hard sell, but they do have the conference title and that should mean something. They've got the guard play to win this tourney and can rebound with any team in the league. But drawing Air Force in the first round could be dangerous. The Falcons play the Cowboys extremely tough. Getting the winner of San Diego State-BYU in the semifinals is no easy draw, either. The Runnin' Rebels have been on a tear lately, finishing third in the conference with nine wins. UNLV is peaking at the right time and will have the homecourt edge. UNLV gets a reeling New Mexico in the first round and then plays a Utah team that it has already beaten once, assuming Utah gets past Colorado State. If UNLV gets in the final then the Runnin' Rebels would be playing a rocking road game with the sounds of “Rebbbb-belllls" ringing in everyone's ears in the Thomas & Mack. San Diego State has the most athletic starting five and could get on a roll and win three straight. The Aztecs still haven't played their best basketball of the season, which in itself is a scary thought for the rest of the league. Likely number of bids: Two if Wyoming and Utah meet in the final, then the conference is almost assured of two bids. If one of the two gets beat on the first day and the other wins the tournament then there is a chance for just one bid.
The Illini are on a roll, winning eight straight to get a piece of the Big Ten title. The Illini got that share by winning at Minnesota, one of the hardest places to win on the road in the Big Ten. Frank Williams is playing with confidence and showed brilliant leadership Sunday. The rest of the team is getting healthier and is on a mission to prove they are better than their record, which in the end isn't so bad after all (23-7). The Illini are the only Big Ten team that has the talent to get to the Final Four and a run through the Big Ten tournament would certainly go a long way to proving that to the rest of the nation. Illinois is also playing for a decent seed, too. We keep waiting for Iowa to go on a run. The talent is still there and if this team cares about the rest of this season then they can do it in the Big Ten tournament. Steve Alford said it's up to the seniors to decide if they want to make a run and continue the season. Getting by a gritty Purdue team won't be easy, but if they do then they can beat Wisconsin in the quarterfinals, let alone the winner of Indiana-Michigan State. Iowa got hot last season and ran through the Big Ten tournament. Northwestern is no joke. The Wildcats don't have the offense for a four-game run in four days but they have enough of a pesky defense that they could upset a team and knock a few teams down a seed in the NCAA Tournament bracket. Likely number of bids: Five, unless Minnesota wins at least two games and that would include a win over Illinois in the quarterfinals. Michigan State shouldn't fret, even if the Spartans lose to Indiana in the quarterfinals and end up with 11 losses. The Spartans lost five games without a healthy Marcus Taylor and Adam Ballinger. The key is ensuring that Kelvin Torbert can play.
Pittsburgh gets the slight edge over Connecticut as the favorite because of the roll the Panthers have been on this season. And the Panthers will have the pressure of being one of the two No. 1 seeds. Last season, they were the upstart team, reaching the final before anyone took them seriously. That won't be the case this week. Pittsburgh will have a target on its back. The winner of Boston College-Rutgers will be pining to get a piece of Pittsburgh, which swept Rutgers and crushed BC on the road. The top half of the bracket is stacked with Georgetown, Providence and Miami on the other side, making Connecticut's run to the title game a bit easier -- if that can even be said in this balanced conference. The Hoyas are everyone's pick to be the sleeper to win the conference tournament. They've got the size, the quickness and the overall talent to be an NCAA team. But they haven't played up to potential. Georgetown has won three straight and lurks as a dangerous opponent, but the Hoyas will have to get by Providence and then Miami to get to the semifinals. Villanova is hot, at least at home, and could slow the game down in what could be an ugly matchup with Syracuse. Get by the 'Cuse, and the Wildcats get another crack at Connecticut, a team that they nearly beat in Hartford last month (talk about an ugly game). Boston College proved Sunday that the Eagles still could play like an NCAA team. The Eagles marched into Syracuse and took away the game, winning a must game on the road. If the Eagles' perimeter is hitting shots and their guards are rebounding then they have a shot to beat anyone in this tournament. Likely number of bids: Four bids are a lock with a fifth coming from St. John's, assuming the Red Storm win at least one game by beating Seton Hall in the first round. A win over Notre Dame in the quarterfinals would lock up a bid. A sixth Big East bid could come from a winner outside of Pittsburgh, Miami, Connecticut, Notre Dame and St. John's, or Syracuse winning at least one game, possibly two. Boston College could have an outside shot at a bid with two wins in the tournament, but seven bids seems unlikely.
Last week, it would have been hard to anoint Oregon as the team to beat in this balanced league. But the Ducks sweep of the L.A. schools on the road last weekend pushed them to the outright title and the status as the team to beat. Oregon has the shooters, the fast break and the defense to cause problems for anyone in this tournament. But the tiebreakers didn't necessarily break right for them. USC dropped to a No. 4 seed and if the Trojans get past Stanford, they'll likely be playing Oregon in the semifinals, a week after losing to them in overtime. A stronger argument could be made for the Trojans to be the toughest team to beat behind Oregon and ahead of Arizona because of the location of the tournament and the Trojans more dominant player in Sam Clancy. Arizona State doesn't have the numbers to get hot for three straight days, but it could hurt the Wildcats seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Arizona State beat Arizona once and nearly did it twice. The Sun Devils would like nothing more than to be the spoiler for their rival. Washington has absolutely nothing to lose by playing Oregon in the first round and the Huskies have the confidence after beating the Ducks at home this season. Likely number of bids: Six unless the Sun Devils or Huskies pull off the impossible and win the conference tournament to get a seventh team out of the Pac-10. This tournament isn't about getting another team into the Dance, but rather about extending what was the best conference race of the season.
Can any team do in three days what it couldn't do during the regular season? The Jayhawks went undefeated in the Big 12 regular season, the only team among the 31 conference regular-season champs that didn't lose a game. Kansas isn't just playing the best basketball in the conference, but is playing the best basketball in the country. The Jayhawks will have the target on their back and must get through a rugged three days to stay unbeaten. They have won 14 straight since losing at UCLA. But this team isn't feeling the pressure of the win streak and doesn't "need to lose," just get on a roll in the NCAA Tournament. There's no reason why they can't win three games in Kansas City and then six in the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma is the obvious second choice but will have to get past its nemesis Texas in the semifinals for a potential matchup with Kansas. Oklahoma is still playing for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and must get to the final for a shot, winning it would likely give them a stronger argument for the bid than Cincinnati and/or Alabama. A win over Kansas would give the Sooners wins over two of the three top teams in the country after Oklahoma beat Maryland earlier in the season. Iowa State nearly pulled off the upset of Texas at home Saturday. The Cyclones are depleted but they did beat Missouri at home and draw an erratic Tigers in the first round. Missouri could be down after losing to Kansas at home and missing out on a chance to be the fourth seed and receive a bye into the quarterfinals. The Baylor/Kansas State winner gets Oklahoma in the quarterfinals and could catch the Sooners thinking ahead. Both teams are capable of pulling off one upset, but not two. Likely number of bids: Six, barring an upset of monumental proportions where Nebraska or Colorado pulls off the miracle run and beats Kansas on their way to the title. Missouri has the overall resume to get in but might feel a tiny bit nervous with a loss to Iowa State in the first round. Just a bit.
Maryland gets the nod over Duke by virtue of winning the ACC regular season title and simply owning teams in the second half at home. Maryland lost only once, essentially in the second half at Duke, and has been simply sensational the past six weeks. Maryland has been on a mission to win the ACC regular season title and the conference tournament title. The Terps got the first one done and are on track for the second, which would help them put Duke in the rearview mirror for at least a season. This team doesn't get rattled and has the senior leadership to cut down the nets in Charlotte. They seem to be focused at the task at hand and don't get too carried away with the bigger picture of reaching the Final Four. Credit Gary Williams for keeping this team grounded and seniors like Juan Dixon, Byron Mouton and Lonny Baxter for not getting too high after beating teams like Duke. Maryland won't have an easy stretch in any of its games, but avoiding the hot Georgia Tech was probably the best draw of the second tier ACC teams. Georgia Tech has won eight of their last 10 and moved up to the sixth seed. The Yellow Jackets drew Wake Forest, a team they just beat by 13 points last week. Georgia Tech was predicted to be at the bottom of the conference and looked like it in the preseason. But the Yellow Jackets ended up tying Virginia with seven ACC wins. Paul Hewitt has done a masterful job, maximizing the talent. Clemson a spoiler? Possibly for Florida State and the Seminoles staff if Clemson wins the first round game and then, maybe, if the Tigers catch the Terps napping in the quarterfinals. It's a long, long shot, but Clemson did play Maryland tough at home. Likely number of bids: Four, unless Virginia can win two games then five is the number. A win by the Cavs in the quarterfinals would give them two of their final three against tournament teams (Duke and N.C. State). Beating Maryland in the semifinals would certainly be the clincher with wins over two of the top three teams. But losing to N.C. State in the quarterfinals puts them squarely on the bubble where they'll have to hope there aren't a lot of upsets in other tourneys, and that they sneak into the field.
The Tide was rolling until Ole Miss squashed its pride Sunday in Oxford, Miss. But 'Bama still has to enter this balanced field as the favorite. Alabama has the overall SEC title and the player of the year in Erwin Dudley, even if he was held to five points Sunday. Alabama didn't get any favors in the draw, looking at playing the winner of Tennessee-Arkansas in the quarterfinals. Then, Kentucky is next in the semifinals, assuming the Wildcats get past Ole Miss or South Carolina (not a lock). If Alabama were to pull off three straight, which would mean possibly beating Florida, Mississippi State or Georgia in the final, then the Tide could make a strong case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. The reason this tournament and this conference should be ranked first is because of the grueling stretch of games the team needs to play to win the title. Florida and Ole Miss in first round games? That's right. The Gators lost to Kentucky putting them in the opening round game against Auburn. Ole Miss crushed Alabama but still has to play South Carolina in the first round before facing Kentucky. The Vols and Hogs played well in their last game and should put on a dandy of a first-round matchup. Both teams are also playing to get into the NIT, although that won't be the primary focus. Arkansas has the passion to play for interim head coach Mike Anderson. A run to the NCAA Tournament would definitely help his chances for the job. The Hogs have the talent to beat anyone in this field, but so too, does Tennessee. LSU has been on a quietly earning an NIT bid and could cause problems for Georgia in the quarterfinals if the Tigers get past Vanderbilt. The Commodores are coming off a loss at Arkansas but had beaten Kentucky a few days earlier. Likely number of bids: Six, barring a run by Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU or Vanderbilt to the title. It could happen, considering Arkansas won four games in 2000 to win the SEC tournament title. But it's still unlikely because of the grueling nature of winning that many games in a row against high quality teams. Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. |
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