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Monday, March 4
Updated: March 9, 5:50 PM ET
 
Breaking down the 'Super Bubble'

By Joe Lunardi
Special to ESPN.com

By the latest calculations, all but four at-large positions in the NCAA field are spoken for. And those four spots are now being contested by only eight teams on Sunday morning.

Here is the projected S-Curve ranking of the "Super Bubble" as of Sunday, March 10 (11:30 a.m. ET):

Last 4 In
Southern Illinois
Tulsa
Boston College
Butler

Last 4 Out
Ball State
Minnesota
Bowling Green
Charlotte

Joe Lunardi will update his Super Bubble one more time Sunday morning, along with his final 65-team bracket projections on ESPN.com, which will be published at 3 p.m. ET Sunday.

Let's break it down, then, using some important (but frequently overlooked) tools:

Bubble Numbers
Team RPI L10 NCSked R/N NCR vs. F vs. B
S. Illinois 52 7-3 147th 13-7 3-1 5-1 0-0
Tulsa 35 8-2 218th 12-3 2-0 1-4 2-1
Boston College 40 5-5 186th 9-6 1-0 5-6 3-1
Butler 79 8-2 301st 14-3 4-0 3-0 1-0
Ball State 75 6-4 15th 9-8 2-1 2-5 1-1
Minnesota 66 5-5 53rd 4-9 0-3 4-10 1-0
Bowling Green 59 8-2 205th 11-6 3-0 2-4 1-1
Charlotte 35 5-5 66th 7-8 2-2 2-8 3-1

KEY:
L10: Record in last 10 games.
NCSked: Non-conference schedule ranking.
R/N: Road/neutral record.
NCR: Non-conference road record.
vs. F: Record vs. teams clearly in the field.
Vs. B: Record vs. other at-large candidates.

Conclusions of the moment:

  • Was it asking too much for Tulsa to beat Hawaii once in three tries?
  • The Mountain West and Iowa have made things even more tense for these teams.
  • Butler and Ball State have conflicting but still credible profiles.
  • Minnesota and a ton of middling majors will be crying.

    Joe Lunardi is the resident Bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. He is also editor and publisher of www.bracketology.net.







  •  More from ESPN...
    Who's on the bubble?
    Who's in, who's out? ESPN.com ...


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