Once a big, jumbled mess, the Big East's NCAA Tournament picture is easier to decipher entering this week's league tournament at Madison Square Garden.

It's still a jumbled mess. But it's not nearly as big.

Rutgers, for one, looks to be off the bubble after spoiling a spirited February by losing three of its final four regular-season games. Providence also missed its chance to play its way into at-large contention by losing its last three games.

Meanwhile, St. John's surely clinched a spot in the NCAA Tournament with its victory last week against Notre Dame.

That's three less teams to worry about.

Still, there's Syracuse (20-10), which has jeopardized its once rock-solid position by going 4-8 after a 16-2 start -- with a putrid 0-3 finish. And there's Boston College (19-10), which has fallen but now appears to be getting up, thanks to victories in two of its final three games. And there's Georgetown (17-10), which won its final three games to climb back onto the NCAA bubble.

At Syracuse, coach Jim Boeheim has been confronted with a reality he suspected two months ago.

"People got misled," he told reporters after the Orangemen closed the season Sunday with a 69-65 home loss to Boston College. "We were never a 16-2 team. (And) I haven't seen a good, positive offensive thing in any of our last 10 games."

He might not see much in a first-round matchup Wednesday with Villanova, either. The gritty Wildcats (16-11) have held opponents to 38-percent shooting this season, and locked up Syracuse on 31.5-percent shooting in their 67-61 victory last week.

Two weeks ago, if Boston College had known its NCAA Tournament chances might hinge on a must-win game with Rutgers in the first round of the Big East tournament, the Eagles might have made NIT plans. The Scarlet Knights had won seven of nine games, including upsets of Connecticut, Miami and Notre Dame. Rutgers looked dangerous. But after losing its last two regular-season games to Virginia Tech and Georgetown, the Scarlet Knights (18-11) simply look beatable.

Like Boston College, Georgetown is a victory away from solidifying its NCAA Tournament hopes. Like Boston College, the Georgetown also has drawn a slumping opponent (15-15 Providence) in the first round of the Big East tournament.

But unlike Boston College, the Hoyas must contend with the peskiest defender in the country in John Linehan, who could shut down the Georgetown offense by shutting down Kevin Braswell.