| | Not so long ago, really, baseball think tanks studied how to get more good athletes into the sport. Nowadays it seems like every team not named the Minnesota Twins has a stud like Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter or Vladimir Guerrero.
The tricky part now is finding enough teams that are willing and able to pay them all.
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| Gonzalez |
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| Griffey |
Baseball's current wealth of talent, hitter-friendly conditions and twin-engined economic system (salary arbitration and free agency) have joined together to create a supply of financially elite players that threatens to exceed the demand.
Consider the Texas Rangers.
They mined superstars Juan Gonzalez and Ivan Rodriguez from the sandlots of Puerto Rico, then invested $45 million to bring back prodigal son Rafael Palmeiro last winter. Together the trio produced an AL West title, but new Rangers owner Tom Hicks was nevertheless claiming losses of about $15 million for the year.
So what does Texas general manager Doug Melvin do? He jettisons his excess baggage, in this case two-time AL MVP Gonzalez. He dealt Gonzalez to the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday rather than attempt to negotiate a contract extension with him.
"We hear about the Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez numbers and where they are going," Melvin said. "That was not something I was prepared to do at this time."
Neither, it seems, are the Seattle Mariners. They announced earlier Tuesday that they will entertain offers to trade Griffey after a failed attempt to sign him to a contract extension.
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TALENT ON THE MARKET
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The free agent class this year is thin. But check out the potential free agents for next season.
1999: Aaron Sele, Chuck Finley, Juan Guzman, Kenny Rogers, David Cone, Andy Benes, Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhodes, Greg Vaughn, John Olerud, Todd Zeile, David Nilsson, Jose Hernandez, David Segui, Harold Baines
2000: Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado, Craig Biggio, Barry Larkin, Carl Everett, Charles Johnson, Jim Edmonds, Mike Mussina, Andy Ashby, Mike Hampton, Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, Ismael Valdes, Darren Dreifort, Armando Benitez, Robb Nen, John Wetteland
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Despite an offer of $135 million for eight years, Griffey saw no reason to continue talking. He asked the team to trade him, preferably to a team closer to his home in Florida.
Perhaps the Griffey situation would have played out the same way had Rodriguez not been putting up the best offensive totals ever by a shortstop, but we doubt it. The fact is that Griffey's situation is complicated by Alex Rodriguez even more than Gonzalez's situation was by Ivan Rodriguez and Palmeiro.
Griffey, Alex Rodriguez and Gonzalez are all part of the free-agent class of 2000. This will be the group that either raises baseball's average salary to $2 million or sends the players' union to the courthouse with fresh charges of collusion.
While the current group of free agents is underwhelming (Aaron Sele is the top pitcher, for goodness sake), the roll call of 2000 free agents is staggering. In addition to the aforementioned three, it includes Manny Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Craig Biggio, Barry Larkin, Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green, along with pitchers Mike Hampton, Andy Ashby, Roger Clemens, Ismael Valdes, Darren Dreifort, Andy Pettitte, John Wetteland and Robb Nen.
If Mark McGwire isn't satisfied with a mutual $11 million option, he could seek to leave St. Louis.
New Mariners GM Pat Gillick knew there was probably no way to keep Griffey and Rodriguez without turning them into a two-man sideshow. They wouldn't have left enough money to pay the 23 others needed for a competitive team.
It's doubtful that the highly respected Gillick took the job from the Nintendo brass without having the authority to trade both Griffey and Rodriguez. He could wind up doing just that, but for now will concentrate his efforts on finding a way to sign Rodriguez while listening to offers for Griffey.
Gillick will meet this week with Rodriguez and his agent, Scott Boras. They have said that they will not entertain any offers on an extension, whether from the Mariners or any team that traded for Rodriguez. But Gillick has been known to be persuasive, and might change their minds. He also might leave those meetings determined to trade Rodriguez as well as Griffey.
There's nothing baseball executives cherish more than payroll flexibility. It allows them to maneuver on an annual basis, making moves here and there to adjust to needs relating from performance and health.
Whoever becomes Baltimore's next GM will find his hands tied by the moves of Peter Angelos and Frank Wren, who were handing out long-term contracts like fliers last fall. Dodgers GM Kevin Malone must likewise sort through a mess only partly of his making. The White Sox would love to deal their own two-time MVP, Frank Thomas, but with $66.7 million remaining on his contract, he's an immovable object.
Recently retired Seattle GM Woody Woodward made the deal of the year in '98, getting pitchers Freddy Garcia and John Halama and infielder Carlos Guillen from Houston for Randy Johnson. He got young without getting worse.
Those are the kind of deals that teams look to make when they decide to move an All-Star rather than give him the bloated contract necessary to keep him around. It's a tricky business, but if the reward is good enough, it beats getting only draft choice compensation in return.
At first glance, Melvin appears to have done well with the deal for Gonzalez. In exchange for the emotionally and physically fragile giant who racked up 340 homers before his 30th birthday, the Rangers received four players with solid upside, with an average age of 23.
Power-lifter Gabe Kapler (24 years old) replaces Gonzalez in right field. He won't be a dominating hitter, but could emerge as a bigger presence than the Sphinx-like Gonzalez. Lefty Justin Thompson (26) has had two arm surgeries in two years, making him a crapshoot. But there's nothing not to like about pitching prospects Francisco Cordero (22) and Alan Webb (20).
Cordero, who had 27 saves and a 1.38 ERA in Double-A before a late-season promotion to Detroit, could make Wetteland expendable after next season. The left-handed Webb has the potential to be a rookie of the year candidate in 2001.
As for the Tigers, they are counting on Gonzalez -- who has never been a leader -- to lead them into Comerica Park next April. GM Randy Smith has no assurances that Gonzalez will stick around after 2000.
"If you're going to deal with premier players, there's always a chance they'll walk," Smith said. "But you have to dare to be good."
Smith has had his hands on the trigger to pull a blockbuster for at least two years. He thought he had a deal done with Bob Watson for Yankees center fielder Bernie Williams at the expansion draft in 1997, but it fell apart. In time, he might be sorry this one didn't, too.
If Gonzalez can't be signed to a long-term contract, this trade will be remembered as Smith's Folly. Of course, the results could be even worse if he does sign. That's the risk a club takes with huge contracts. No wonder so many teams are willing to pass that risk around.
Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer of the Chicago Tribune and a frequent contributor to ESPN.com. | |
ALSO SEE
 Gammons: Trading season underway
Griffey rejects offer, asks for trade from Mariners
Rangers trade Gonzalez to Tigers in blockbuster
Where could Griffey end up?
McAdam: Few teams in running for Griffey
Down on the Farm: Advantage Texas
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