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 Monday, November 8
Rangers are slam-dunk winners
 
By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

 REPORT FILED: NOVEMBER 4

This promises to be a very active winter on the trade front. Here at Down on the Farm, we will look at any major trades involving prospects and young players, and analyze them from a long-term talent perspective.

Tuesday, the Tigers and Rangers pulled off a massive deal, involving prospects and young players. The Rangers sent Juan Gonzalez to Detroit, accompanied by catcher Gregg Zaun and reliever Danny Patterson. In exchange, the Rangers received outfielder Gabe Kapler, lefty starter Justin Thompson, infielder Frank Catalanotto, relief pitcher Francisco Cordero, catcher Bill Haselman, and minor league left-handed starter Alan Webb. How did each team make out in this trade?

Gabe Kapler
Gabe Kapler hit .245 with 18 home runs and 49 RBI as a rookie last season for the Tigers.

Obviously, the Tigers see Gonzalez as the centerpiece of their franchise, moving into a new park in 2000. Whether they can sign him long-term remains to be seen. Detroit wants Gonzalez to give their tepid hitting attack a shot in the arm, and no doubt expect MVP-style numbers from the outfielder.

His lack of plate discipline keeps him from being one of the top five offensive players in the league, but his power is awesome, and he will help the Tigers hitting attack without question. On the other hand, he is just one player; by himself, he doesn't guarantee a pennant. The Tigers will have to give him a strong supporting cast in order to expect good results.

In this regard, the Tigers may come to regret the price they paid, for it reduced the overall level of talent they have to surround Gonzalez. Zaun and Patterson are mediocre and unlikely to help out in any significant way. On the other hand, several of the players on their way to Arlington could be very, very good.

Kapler is one of my favorites. He didn't dominate in his rookie year last season, hitting just .245, but he showed good power potential, and no one questions his work ethic or drive to succeed. He won't turn into a superstar, but will be an above-average regular outfielder, less temperamental than Gonzalez, less vulnerable to injury, and certainly less expensive. There will be pressure on him to replace Gonzalez, but if anyone can handle the pressure, Kapler can.

Thompson is a fine young pitcher, whose career ERA of 3.98 is strong by modern standards. The key for him is health. He will be coming off shoulder surgery heading into next year, and there is no guarantee he will ever be the same. On the other hand, he can't be any worse than John Burkett, who the Rangers just dumped, and could be much better if his arm bounces back. It's a risk worth taking.

Catalanotto is another scrappy player, who doesn't have great tools but works hard. He has pop in his bat, and while he needs to develop a bit more patience at the plate, he is more of a long-term player at second base than Mark McLemore is. Catalanotto can do a good job as a backup until Texas decides to dump McLemore.

Cordero has a 99-mph fastball. With John Wetteland around, the Rangers don't have to push Cordero into a pressure role right away, but can ease him in at short relief as he works on his control. Assuming all goes as planned, he can start closing games as Wetteland ages, eventually taking the job full-time.

Webb had a 4.95 ERA in Double-A, but was just 20-years-old, and is projectable. He doesn't throw hard, but knows how to pitch, and was making a jump from the Midwest League. Webb could turn out to be nothing, but he could also turn into a good No. 3 starter in a major league rotation.

If everything goes according to plan, the Rangers get:

  • 1 good major league outfielder (Kapler)

  • 1 good major league starting pitcher (Thompson)

  • 1 good major league second baseman (Catalanotto)

  • 1 potentially awesome relief pitcher (Cordero)

  • 1 potentially good major league starter (Webb)

  • 1 backup catcher (Haselman)

    And the Tigers get:

  • 1 superstar outfielder with huge contract demands (Gonzalez)

  • 1 backup catcher (Zaun)

  • 1 mediocre relief pitcher (Patterson)

    From a long-term perspective, it is pretty clear that the Rangers win this trade. Even if nothing goes according to plan, and all the players that the Rangers got fail to pan out, it is still a good deal, since the alternative was to let Gonzalez go as a free agent, receiving one draft pick in compensation. Kapler by himself is more valuable than a draft pick.

    Do the Tigers win in the short-term? Maybe, if Gonzalez has a great year, the rest of the team does well, and the players that the Rangers got don't do much right away. On the other hand, if Gonzalez gets injured, or has a merely decent year then leaves as a free agent, the Tigers lose big time, even in the short-run. It's a risky move by Randy Smith, and a nice long-term decision by Doug Melvin.

    John Sickels is the author of the STATS 1999 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
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