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 Wednesday, November 3
Cost, trade bait, geography eliminate most teams
 
By Sean McAdam
Special to ESPN.com

 Attempting to predict where All-Star players and their megacontracts are going to land can be an inexact science at best.

No one expected Albert Belle to end up with the Chicago White Sox, and when Pedro Martinez surfaced in Boston, it was equally shocking.

Ken Griffey Jr.
Ken Griffey Jr. has, in all likelihood, played his final game for the Mariners.

But while we can't say definitively where Ken Griffey Jr. will be for the start of the 2000 season, we can narrow the list of suspects considerably.

When he signs a new deal -- presumably with the team that trades for him -- Griffey will be in a position to demand a contract with an annual average value well in excess of $15 million. Already, he's turning down an offer from the Seattle Mariners that would have averaged just under $17 million over eight seasons.

That sort of economic commitment automatically eliminates about 20 of baseball's 30 teams before the first offer is made.

Add to the fact that Griffey has said he wants to be closer to his home in Orlando, and the fact he wishes to play for a team that trains in Florida, and the list narrows further. Keep in mind that Griffey, with 10 years in the majors and the past five with the same team, can veto any trade.

Probably not more than five teams, then, meet the necessary criteria: relative proximity to Florida; resources to afford Griffey's signature on a new deal; and personnel to satisfy the Mariners in exchange for the game's best and most marketable player.

A look at the contenders, in descending order of probability:

1. Atlanta Braves
The Braves make so much sense that Seattle GM Pat Gillick and Atlanta counterpart John Schuerholz should lock themselves in a room today and get the deal done.

Other than the two teams in Florida -- the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Devil Rays, neither of whom can afford the monetary or player price -- Atlanta is the closest major-league city to Orlando.

The Braves have Ted Turner's checkbook from which to operate, always a good starting point. Moreover, after four failed trips to the World Series in the 1990s, the Braves don't lack for motivation to improve.

And don't forget that the Braves are, in some ways, first and foremost a television property. The more attractive they are to fans across the country, the better the ratings for TBS.

Griffey would love the chance to play for a perennial contender and, not incidentally, a chance to chase history in the same city as Henry Aaron. Think of the promotional opportunities for the Braves and baseball in say, 2006, when Griffey is poised to become the game's new home run king.

The Braves have plenty of ammunition. They could offer Andruw Jones to replace Griffey in center, and toss in another outfielder (George Lombard) and a couple of young pitchers (pick two from among Odalis Perez, Bruce Chen, John Rocker and Kevin McGlinchy).

Kevin Millwood is untouchable, but perhaps the Braves will part with one of their veteran starters -- after all, they have to sign Griffey and Chipper Jones is a free agent after 2000 as well.

2. New York Yankees
When there's a super talent on the market, the Yanks are never far behind. Sure, New York isn't exactly a suburb of Orlando, but George Steinbrenner could work wonders with private jets and other perks to make the Bronx the next best thing to being there.

True, the Yanks already have Bernie Williams in center. But this is the Yankees we're talking about -- Steinbrenner never passes up the chance to improve. (See: Wells for Clemens.)

If Steinbrenner is as obsessed with seeing these Yankees cement their place in history as he appears to be, he could find a way to make this work.

Like the Braves, he could offer an All-Star center fielder (Williams) and any number of prospects (infielder Alfonso Soriano and first baseman Nick Johnson).

And if you thought Atlanta had some marketing potential for career homer No. 756, how about the game's best player, attempting to break sport's most glamorous record, in the world's No. 1 media market?

One major strike against this deal is that Griffey has said he'll never play for Steinbrenner's Yankees. When Ken Sr. played for the club, the players' kids weren't allowed on the field. Junior holds a long grudge.

3. New York Mets
The Mets aren't about to stand by idly while their cross-town rivals knock them off the back pages for, oh, the next decade.

As successful as the Mets were last season, they've got some serious catching up to do with the Yankees, who have won three of the last four World Series. Getting Griffey would put them on equal star footing with the Yankees, once and for all.

The Mets have been rumored to be more interested in Junior's teammate, Alex Rodriguez, but now that A-Rod has said he'll test the market after next season, regardless of whether he's in Seattle or traded elsewhere, the Mets have no guarantees. Plus, shortstop is now in the capable hands of Rey Ordonez, so it's not like the position has to be upgraded.

Granted, the Mets don't have the prospects that others do, but they might have enough. Pitcher Octavio Dotel would be a good place to start, and Edgardo Alfonzo could return to his natural position of third, displacing Russ Davis in Seattle's infield.

Pluck somebody from the Mets' deep bullpen (Turk Wendell?) and a center fielder (Roger Cedeno?) and it might be a package the Mariners could live with. Trading Griffey out of the American League wouldn't be a bad selling point, either.

4. Cleveland Indians
Again, we're straying geographically from Disney World, but ...

The Indians train in Winter Haven, Fla., meaning Griffey would be about 30 miles from his home for the six weeks of spring training.

The Indians have a strong supporting cast, have been in the postseason every year since 1995 and, in Jacobs Field, have the necessary revenue stream to afford him, particularly if the Dolan Bros. are the club's next owners. When you've bid better than a half-billion for a football team that didn't yet exist, what's $150 million or so for one of the country's best athletes?

From Griffey's standpoint, Cleveland would only be a couple of hundred miles from his hometown of Cincinnati and his father.

What would the Indians have to offer? How about a package that would include third baseman Russ Branyan, Richie Sexson -- who could help replace Griffey's punch, while solving the Mariners' first-base vacancy -- and some young pitching, including Jaret Wright?

5. Houston Astros
The Astros have potential free-agent problems of their own on the horizon, with Craig Biggio eligible next season and Jeff Bagwell the season after that.

But the Astros, set to move to a new ballpark in April, could buy themselves a gate attraction for their homestead for years to come, and make a serious run at a title in the next two seasons.

Houston isn't real close to Orlando, but it isn't as far as some cities, either, and the Astros' Grapefruit League home of Kissimmee, Fla., is a golf-cart ride from Griffey's place.

The Astros could offer pitching in the form of Scott Elarton, who could anchor the Mariners' perennially troublesome bullpen, and young bats like Daryle Ward and Lance Berkman.

Remember, it's not as if these teams haven't done big business before. Randy Johnson was shipped to Houston at the trading deadline in 1997, a deal that got the Mariners on their rebuilding road.

Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal-Bulletin covers the American League for ESPN.com.

 


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