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Sunday, December 19 War Room: Packers at Vikings The War Room Green Bay offense vs. Minnesota defense
Due to a drop-off in production at linebacker, Minnesota's run defense has fallen off since the first meeting and is allowing 4.1 yards per carry. In addition to Levens, the Packers also expect to have LOT Ross Verba and blocking TE Jeff Thomason back in the lineup on Monday. Their respective returns should allow Levens to get wide more frequently than the rookies have the past two games. Perhaps the biggest reason the Packers dropped their third home game of the season against Carolina -- aside from the defense -- was the fact that QB Brett Favre led the team with five rushing first downs. The sight of Favre scrambling around downfield to keep the chains moving couldn't have been pleasant for offensive coordinator Sherman Lewis to see. Last week against the Chiefs, the Vikings were strong in short yardage situations but they gave up big chunks on first down. Levens must be effective on early downs to keep Favre from scrambling on too many third-and-longs. In Week 3, QB Favre had one of his better performances of season, completing 24-of-39 for 304 yards and no interceptions. Unlike the first nine games of the season, in which he completed just 53.4 percent of his passes, that game greatly resembled the more conservative game plan the team has adopted the last four weeks. Over the past month, Favre has completed 67.9 percent of his attempts and isn't spraying the ball erratically downfield. The Chiefs had early success last week targeting passes over 15 yards against a Vikings pass defense that is ranked dead last in the league (247.2 yds/gm). Green Bay must do the same thing on Monday in attempt to take the hostile crowd out of the game. Although Favre used the shotgun formation 19 times last week against the Panthers, the intense crowd noise will prevent him from doing so on Monday night. Look for the Packers to line up TE Tyrone Davis in the conventional formation outside the tackles so that he can hear the cadence and work him between the hashes. OLB Kailee Wong looked lost in coverage last week, giving up six receptions for 63 yards and two touchdowns to Tony Gonzalez. Granted, he hasn't met expectations all season but this is a matchup that Davis should dominate. Minnesota offense vs. Green Bay defense
George, who didn't face Green Bay in the matchup at Lambeau Field, should have a big day against a confused and frustrated defense. The Packers, who rushed only three men a good majority of the time last week against Carolina, will get picked apart by another accurate veteran quarterback if they aren't more aggressive with blitz schemes. Fearing that his unit couldn't hold up in coverage with their base defense, coordinator Emmitt Thomas beefed up his secondary and implemented complex looks against the Panthers. The results were disastrous, as Steve Beuerlein threw for a franchise-record 373 yards and three touchdowns. Although they will probably get a reprieve with WR Cris Carter out of the lineup, the Packers desperately need to find a pass rush, even if it means sending five defenders. The key to this game will be the amount of consistent pressure, not necessarily sacks that the Packers can put on the quarterback. Kansas City kept George off balance last Sunday with a good balance of pressure up the middle and off the edges. Minnesota must attack the middle the field with seam routes and crossing patterns in order to expose the weak cover skills of Green Bay's linebacker corps. If the Vikings can get slot receiver Matthew Hatchette isolated on OLB Jude Waddy or one of the Packers young corners, they should have enough success to open up the vertical passing game. The matchup to watch will be DC Tyrone Williams on WR Randy Moss. In the first meeting between these teams, Green Bay held Moss to just two receptions and 13 yards. Williams, who came up big against Carolina's explosive Muhsin Muhammad last week, is limiting the big play better than at any time in his career and will need another sound effort on Monday night. The Packers held the Panthers to an all-time franchise-low 13 yards rushing last week on 13 carries but those numbers are not an accurate reflection of Green Bay's run defense. Because of their stagnant pass rush, the Panthers disregarded the run and tore up big chunks through the air. RB Robert Smith, who rushed 21 times for 85 yards in the Week 3 showdown, is beginning to run with his normal burst and could be in for a better showing against a run defense that is allowing 117.2 yards per game (4.0 avg.). Despite their recent deficiencies in pass protection, the Vikings' offensive line continues to get the job done on the ground. Green Bay's front four, especially DT Santana Dotson, is getting better penetration but the linebacker corps needs to start reacting and making more plays around the line of scrimmage. Special teams
Waddy continues to struggle with missed assignments and penalties in coverage and the Vikings will test him again this week. Smith has regained his ability to accelerate out of his cuts and could have a big day running wide. Minnesota rarely uses RB Hoard on screens because of Smith's ability in the open field.
The Packers are using Freeman more out of the slot and sending him in motion to create mismatches in the passing game. Freeman is making less spectacular plays this season but he remains Favre's security receiver. With little help from the safeties over the top, Hitchcock must hold up on third downs.
The Vikings are having trouble getting pressure on the passer but defensive coordinator Foge Fazio always seems to find a way to rattle Favre in the Metrodome. With LOT Ross Verba back in the lineup, Favre should have plenty of time scan the field. In his career playing on the road at Minnesota, he has thrown 5 touchdowns and 10 interceptions -- a fact that can be greatly attributed to the amount of pressure he's faced in this border war. Green Bay will win if...
Minnesota will win if...
The War Room edge
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