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Wednesday, October 20
War Room: Chiefs at Ravens


Kansas City offense vs. Baltimore defense
The Chiefs have built their offense around the offensive line, but to this point that unit has been decimated by injury and has had little time to play together as a group. For the first time in weeks, the offensive line should be healthy Thursday night. The interesting dilemma now is the decision of how to spread the ball to running backs Rashaan Shehee, Donnell Bennett and Bam Morris, all three of which are healthy for the first time in four weeks. Gunther Cunningham likely will use more of a running back-by-committee system, and try to utilize the different running styles to kept the Ravens defense off balance.

CHIEFS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 2
Pass 17
Tot. Yds. 10
Scoring 13
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 5
RAVENS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 8
vs. Pass 11
Total yds. allowed 8
No. of INTs 8
No. of Sacks 12
Turnover differential -3

Baltimore has been stout all season against the run, ranking seventh in the league and only allowing 83.2 yards per game. As long as this unit stays healthy, it can only get better. The front four has been dominant, plugging holes and shooting gaps. The emergence of Larry Webster has been a major difference up front because of his ability to occupy the offensive line and allow the linebacking corps to make plays.

Middle linebacker Ray Lewis is having perhaps the best season of his career. He already has minus-16 yards in tackles and has cleaned up just about everything between the tackles. Peter Boulware hasn't been real productive as far as tackles are concerned, but he's drawing double teams to allow for Jamie Sharper and Lewis to make more plays against the run.

The key on Sunday against the run will be the play of strong safety Kim Herring. Herring has only 16 tackles in a system that is designed for the strong safety to make plays. Herring will be playing closer to the line of scrimmage and will be playing more as a 4-4 linebacker who will be counted on to shut down the cutback lanes.

The Chiefs, as always, will look to take advantage of a strong run game in order to run play-action and dictate the matchups they are looking for. Quarterback Elvis Grbac has been effective when the team is able to bootleg off the play fake, giving Grbac an easier one-side read with favorable man-to-man matchups on receivers Derrick Alexander and Andre Rison.

The Ravens cornerbacks have had a terrible time in coverage, so it has forced defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis to run more cover-two looks, where Duane Starks and DeRon Jenkins are able to play more physical off the line of scrimmage without worrying about getting beat deep because they have help from weak safety Rod Woodson on an individual basis.

The key for the Chiefs will be to force Woodson to take some false steps on the play fake and take advantage of the man-to-man coverage on the receivers.

Baltimore offense vs. Kansas City defense
The Ravens have run the ball more effectively than most would have originally thought coming into the season. Coach Brian Billick has devised schemes and formations to simplify the blocking schemes and give his offensive line better angles coming off the line of scrimmage. Perhaps the most important player in this scheme, however, is fullback Charles Evans, whom Billick thinks is one of the best in the business.

RAVENS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 11
Pass 27
Tot. Yds. 24
Scoring 24
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 21
CHIEFS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 7
vs. Pass 17
Total yds. allowed 12
No. of INTs 2
No. of Sacks 10
Turnover differential +1

The blocking scheme is devised to run a lot of counters and traps where the hole opens up backside, and Evans is responsible for kicking out the linebacker that is left unguarded. The reason the Ravens have been so successful is that Evans has been nearly flawless as an isolation blocker and Errict Rhett has done an excellent job of finding the cutback lane and hitting the hole hard. Defenses are now clogging the middle of the line against Rhett, so the return of speedy Priest Holmes is a welcomed one. Holmes will now add a change up to Rhett's bruising style, and will be able to take advantage of defenses stacking the middle of the field. Against the Chiefs, Holmes is going to have to play a crucial role running the ball outside and stretching the run defense horizontally.

Thanks to a healthy Dan Williams and Chester McGlockton, the Chiefs' front four have helped the team hold opponents to a little more than 77 yards per game on the ground. The defensive tackles are doing a remarkable job of clogging the middle and forcing teams to bounce the ball outside, where defensive end Eric Hicks and Leslie O' Neal have been keeping containment.

The Linebackers are making most of the tackles in the cutback holes because runners are finding that the intended hole has been filled. The key to the running game will be the matchup between Evans and the Chiefs linebacking corps. If the Chiefs linebackers are able to shed the isolation block or fight through it as they have done most of the season, the Ravens will be forced to throw the ball to win, something they do not want to be relegated to do.

Kansas City has a major advantage in the passing game for two reasons. First, the Chiefs have one of the top cover corner trios in the league, and match up extremely well with the Ravens receiving corps. The ever-improving play of nickel corner Carlton Gray gives the Chiefs depth at the position and allows the linebacking corps to continue to rush the passer, instead of giving help in the short zone on third-down situations.

The other reason for optimism is the fact that the Chiefs have established a very effective blitz package. Middle linebacker Marvcus Patton is protected well from his big defensive tackles and has shown excellent instincts when finding a blitz lane to attack. Outside linebacker Derrick Thomas seems to be back to his old self as a pass rusher, and he has been extremely effective coming off the edge and forcing the quarterback to step up in the pocket.

The Ravens offensive line has been very consistent all year, but has been hit hard by injury. They have guys playing out of position and reserves filling in. Reserve right tackle Spencer Folua will be a targeted man in the pass rush because of his inexperience and history of trouble against the blitz. The Cheifs are going to be able to apply enough pressure on the Ravens line and should capitalize on miscommunication and broken assignments because of it.

Special teams
Rookie Daniel Pope has had his struggles early this season. He did not have a particularly good day two weeks ago, averaging just 31.4 yards per punt on five punts and putting just one inside the 20-yard line. Pete Stoyanovich has been solid all season, connecting on nine of 11 field-goal attempts with a long of 51 yards. Tamarick Vanover has been steady as the Chiefs punt returner, with the league's fifth best average of 12.3-yards per return, but the fireworks have yet to come from this big-time playmaker.

NFL RANK
Category KC BAL
Punt return avg. 5 16
Kickoff return avg. 23 6
Opp. punt return avg. 4 12
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 10 8
Time of possession 7 27

Ravens kicker Matt Stover is 9-for-12 on field-goal attempts this season, but his short kickoffs are a concern and are costing the defense valuable starting room. Punter Kyle Richardson had a one-week slump, but looks to have regained his form and is now averaging 42.5-yards per punt. It is obvious that handling punt returns on top of the No. 1 receiving duty is wearing Jermaine Lewis thin as he is averaging just 8.5 yards per return.

Key matchups

  • Ravens RB Errict Rhett vs. Chiefs MLB Marvcus Patton
    Chiefs defensive tackles Chester McGlockton and Dan Williams do an excellent job of clogging up the middle and protecting Patton. Patton is given many clear lanes to the ball carrier and makes a lot of plays when he hits the opening hole. Rhett is going to have a lot of "one-man-to-beat" situations and is going to have to break some tackles in the hole in order get into the secondary.

  • Ravens WR Quadry Ismail vs. Chiefs CB Chris Dishman
    Ismail has great deep speed and will be able to stretch the defense vertically for the Ravens. Dishman has lost a couple of steps, but can still cover the faster players in the league because he is crafty and gets a good jump on routes. If Dishman can cover Ismail in the deep-third without any help, the safeties will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage and help in run support.

  • Chiefs TE Tony Gonzalez vs. Ravens SS Kim Herring
    Gonzalez has the speed and athleticism to pose a threat for opposing defenses down the seam. Gonzalez does an excellent job getting open on play-action passes because of his good bump-and-release technique. Herring needs to pick Gonzalez up off the line of scrimmage and cannot afford to take false steps on play-action because Gonzalez will get behind him in coverage.

    Kansas City will win if...

  • Quarterback Elvis Grbac limits his mistakes and plays the role of caretaker on offense. The Chiefs defense should be able to shut down the Ravens offense and give Grbac and Co. good field position to work with. The offense's job is to control the time of possession and limit the Ravens' offensive opportunities.

  • The corners can take Baltimore's receivers, Jermaine Lewis and Qadry Ismail, out of the game in single-man coverage, allowing the safeties to walk up close to the line of scrimmage and play in run-support.

  • The Chiefs can run the ball effectively enough to force the Ravens to overpursue when Grbac comes off of play-action pass. The Chiefs are mostly effective throwing the ball downfield when the running game is productive because it gives Grbac more time to throw and also catches the defense out of positions on crossing routes when they overpursue flowing to the running back.

    Baltimore will win if...

  • The Raven receivers are able to stretch the defense. Baltimore needs to go up top in the passing game, not only to take advantage of the speed at the receiver position, but also to back the defense off and create some more room underneath for the short passing game and the running attack.

  • Quarterback Stoney Case makes some big plays to continue drives or pick up big chunks of yardage. Although the Ravens do not rely heavily on Case to be the playmaker on offense, Baltimore is going to need to find a way to sustain some drives and get some big hits on the Chiefs defense if they are to keep their defense in this game.

  • The Ravens cornerbacks are able to keep Derrick Alexander and Andre Rison in check in man-to-man coverage, allowing the safeties to cover tight end Tony Gonzalez off of the line of scrimmage and also giving the linebacking corps the freedom to focus almost exclusively on stopping the run and rushing the passer.

    The War Room edge
    Coming off the bye week, both the Chiefs and Ravens are rested and prepared for Thursday's battle. Kansas City (3-2) has been playing solid enough defense to contend for the AFC West in this year of parity in the NFL. The Ravens, however, have been scrapping by with gutsy performances and last-minute heroics from a team that might still be a year away from seriously contending. The story in this game should be defense and the team that comes out on top will be the one with an offense that will take advantage of opportunities given by the defense. Look for the Ravens to hang tough at home, but the Chiefs are too physical up front and should hold on to win the low-scoring affair.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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