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PATRIOTS (9-7) at JAGUARS (11-5)
Running game
Patriots run offense vs. Jaguars run defense Advantage: Patriots The Jaguars will do everything they can to hover around the line of scrimmage. They tried to do that against Jerome Bettis last Monday night, and Bettis gained 139 yards. Patriots rookie Robert Edwards has more speed than Bettis. It could be trouble if Edwards gets past the first line of defense and into the secondary. If Jacksonville's safeties are making all the tackles, the Jaguars are going to lose. That would constitute great ball control for New England and would be letting Scott Zolak do what he wants to do. I'd give the advantage to the Patriots because the Jaguars haven't proven they can stop the run.	Jaguars run offense vs. Patriots run defense Advantage: Patriots The passing game, not the running game, is going to have to win the game for Jacksonville. In any other year without Randy Moss, the Jags' Fred Taylor would be Rookie of the Year. But the Patriots are very stout against the run, ranking seventh in the league. New England will be missing its top tackler, linebacker Ted Johnson, which is a huge loss. But Pete Carroll will try to create a little bit of confusion so the Jaguars will have trouble finding who to block. With an All-Pro tackle like Tony Boselli, the Jags always will get a pretty good head start. Taylor might get his 70-80 yards, but I don't expect the Jags to be able to pound on New England and beat them with the run -- unless they establish the pass first. I give a slight advantage to New England.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Jaguars pass defense Advantage: Patriots The Jaguars are ranked 23rd in the league in pass defense. It's surprising their defense has been so poor statistically, and it's a tribute to their offense that they're in the playoffs with an 11-5 record. This is a pretty even matchup because New England's top weapons are hurt, and Jacksonville just hasn't been very good. The Jacksonville secondary gets a lot of blame, but the Jaguars don't get to the quarterback. They had only 30 sacks, which is last among the playoff teams. So you can be an average quarterback and make plays back there. Zolak's a backup, but if the Jaguars don't pressure him, he'll make plays. The advantage goes to the Patriots, though, because of tight end Ben Coates. The Jaguars might be able to take away Shawn Jefferson and Tony Simmons on the outside. But Coates is the hidden gem here; he's big and can run. I don't think the Jaguars have a linebacker who can cover Coates in the open field.	Jaguars pass offense vs. Patriots pass defense Advantage: Jaguars This is a pretty good matchup, assuming quarterback Mark Brunell is playing. Brunell gives Jacksonville the opportunity to push the ball down the field. Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell are 1,000-yard receivers, and both know how to make big plays. Brunell knows how to find them very accurately. Ty Law, the Patriots' Pro Bowl cornerback, will jump on either Smith or McCardell and follow him wherever he goes. If Law is on either one the whole game, don't expect them to have a career game because Law is good. Against the other cornerback, Steve Israel, I would give the advantage to Jacksonville because the Jaguars have two Pro Bowl-caliber receivers going against one really good corner. When Reggie Barlow enters the game as a third receiver, I think it's still Jacksonville's advantage. Also, Taylor is a very good receiver out of the backfield, and he'll make big plays with his hands as well as his feet.
Special teams
Advantage: Patriots Unless the kickers are horrible, I'm always going to give the edge to a cold-weather team playing outdoors in a warm-weather city. Adam Vinatieri of New England and Mike Hollis of Jacksonville are both good, but Vinatieri kicks in bad weather half of the season. Hollis doesn't very often. It hypes up the cold-weather kicker a little more when he knows he's going to good weather. Nothing else really sticks out on special teams for either team.
Coaching
Advantage: Jaguars When you compare offensive coordinators, the Patriots' Ernie Zampese and the Jaguars' Chris Palmer, it's a wash. Zampese will be challenged more because he's playing with backups, while Palmer will have Brunell back. I give Tom Coughlin the advantage over Pete Carroll, however, because I think he's more disciplined. Carroll is more exciting and enthusiastic, but as far as consistency, I lean toward Jacksonville. New England has the advantage on the defensive side of the ball; Carroll is basically their coordinator. But what wins out is the head coach, and Coughlin is a tad better than Carroll.
Overall
Advantage: Jaguars With Brunell playing, Jacksonville will win. The focus is on the two rookie running backs, but the Jaguars have more perimeter playmakers. Jacksonville's offense is better than New England's offense, while New England has the better defense. But the difference here is you have Brunell against Zolak, and Brunell is the Pro Bowler. The Jaguars are just too explosive at the key positions.