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Monday, Dec. 28 10:59pm ET Upstarts are fun, but stick with Vikings, Broncos |
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Associated Press
If the Minnesota Vikings win the Super Bowl, they might look back
to Nov. 1 as the most important day of the season.
That's when they lost for the only time this season -- 27-24 in Tampa. The loss allowed them to concentrate on the rest of the
season without the pressure of trying to go unbeaten. The Denver Broncos carried such a burden in starting 13-0.
So make the Vikings the favorite to win the Super Bowl as they enter the playoffs relaxed and relatively healthy. And make the
Jets a decent bet to upset the Broncos for the AFC title because Bill Parcells has his team peaking perfectly for the postseason.
Forget the big-name teams -- the 49ers, Packers and Cowboys, all Super Bowl winners this decade. At best, they have an outside
chance to reach the conference title game, but little chance of winning in Minnesota.
"I was hoping for a little more momentum," Green Bay coach Mike Holmgren said after the Packers stumbled to a 16-13 victory
at Chicago on Sunday.
"We didn't function as well as I'd have liked. We were a little sloppy, but we won the game and that's what I was hoping for going
into the playoffs."
A look at the playoffs by conference:
AFC
The Broncos will be home, where they've won 24 straight regular-season games. They also got some of their momentum back by
beating the Seahawks 28-21 on Sunday.
But it could get a little scary for Denver if the Jets come to Mile High for the AFC title game. Parcells has been to three Super
Bowls, and he's had all three of those teams (the 1986 and 1990 Giants and the 1996 Patriots) playing their best at season's end,
just the way his team is playing now.
"Damn! What kind of coach is he, really?" asked Keyshawn Johnson after the Jets beat the Patriots 31-10 Sunday, dominating them in a game that meant more to New England.
"You take a team from 1-15 to 12-4 to the postseason to the AFC East championship. It's crazy."
Actually, there was a midway point -- 9-7 last year in Parcells' first season with the Jets. And it's not really crazy given
Parcells' style -- assembling a hard-working group of veterans who set the tone for younger players.
Johnson himself is an example -- a high-profile, high-talent youngster who Parcells has transformed into a Pro Bowler from a
"me-first" player who wrote an autobiography titled "Just Give Me the Damn Ball" after an uninspired rookie season.
Still, Denver remains favored to return to the Super Bowl.
The home field, John Elway and Terrell Davis do that for the Broncos. And Mike Shanahan is in Parcells' class as a coach -- he
did a marvelous job avoiding the post-Super Bowl letdown that plagues most champions.
It would hard to go beyond the AFC's top two.
Buffalo is probably the scariest because Doug Flutie has
demonstrated he can perform the same kind of miracles in the NFL as in Canada and at Boston College. On Saturday, they go to Miami, where the Dolphins will be without one of their key defensive players, Jason Taylor, who broke his collarbone in Atlanta on Sunday.
New England and Jacksonville, the other two AFC entries, will meet Sunday with either backup quarterbacks or damaged quarterbacks -- Drew Bledsoe has a broken finger and Mark Brunell has a sprained ankle. The winner goes to Mile High Stadium or the Meadowlands, which probably means the winner goes no farther.
NFC
Probably the first, simply because the teams involved are in the dying dynasty category. The 49ers' front office is in turmoil and
its defense is terrible; the Packers have a lot of injuries and Brett Favre is having an off-year.
But the second game has its charms -- the Cardinals haven't won a playoff game in 51 years and have lost 16 of the last 17 games
they've played with Dallas, including 38-10 and 35-28 this year.
Whichever team advances has little chance -- Dallas was the first team ever to go 8-0 in the NFC East, but was 2-6 against everyone
else, and eventually the Cowboys will have to play outside their division.
Can San Francisco or Green Bay win in Atlanta or Minneapolis?
Unlikely.
This is the first year a team with a dome has home-field advantage, and that can make a huge difference in big games. Still,
the Packers were reasonably competitive at Minnesota this year -- they were done in by two early turnovers and couldn't catch up
although they were in the game until the final minutes.
Can Atlanta win at Minnesota?
Maybe.
The Falcons have demonstrated they can dominate the Rams, Panthers, Saints, Colts and other underlings. Their impressive wins
were 41-10 in New England and 31-19 over the 49ers at home. Their loss to the Jets should contain an asterisk -- Steve DeBerg was at quarterback in place of Chris Chandler.
But this will be the first playoff experience for most of them and winning in Minnesota may be too much.
Prediction?
A month ago, it was easy -- Vikings-Broncos.
Now?
It would be nice to say Falcons-Jets.
But stick with this: Vikings-Broncos.
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