TEMPE, Ariz. -- First, let's go over the numbers.
As of Wednesday, 26 underclassmen had declared for the NBA draft.
By the May 13 deadline, that number is expected to be in the 30s.
By June 27, at least a dozen or so foreigners will be in the mix as well when NBA teams gather in New York City.
Oh, and at least five seniors -- you remember them, the players the draft used to be about -- are safe bets to be picked in the first round.
Now, add up these groups of prospects, and even with a few underclassmen who take their names off the early-entry list and return to school, the number should be nearly 50 players who expect to be first-round picks this year. Last time we checked, there were only 28 teams with first-round picks in this year's NBA draft.
|  | | Casey Calvary hopes NBA teams will ignore the hype surrounding underclassmen and give seniors a fair shake in the NBA draft. |
Oops.
What's wrong with being picked in Round 2? Money. The difference between a first- and second-round NBA pick is three years of guaranteed money.
So, where does that leave the 41 seniors at the Nike Desert Classic NBA Draft camp this week?
Fighting for their NBA draft lives.
Duke's Shane Battier, Arizona's Loren Woods, North Carolina's Brendan Haywood, Georgia Tech's Alvin Jones and Iowa State's Jamaal Tinsley are pretty much locks to go among the first 28 picks (Minnesota doesn't have a pick this season). As a result, none are in Tempe this week.
Those seniors in Tempe -- not to mention the rest of this year's senior class -- are quickly being squeezed into the second round, at best, by the glutton of underclassmen declaring for the draft.
Remember Maryland's Terence Morris? He probably could have been a first-round pick two years ago after his sophomore season, but instead stayed and ended his Maryland career with a Final Four run.
He's here in relative obscurity with the rest.
Remember SMU's Jeryl Sasser? He declared last season and had a few scouts thinking that the 6-foot-6 point could be a first-round pick. Had he not been injured he might have dazzled the scouts more than Michigan's Jamal Crawford in Chicago and been a first-round pick. But he didn't go, returned to school and is trying to distinguish himself at Wells Fargo Arena.
How about Ohio State's Ken Johnson? He was supposed to be here last April, but got word a few days before that he could earn his fourth year of eligibility and returned to Columbus. He's back, once again trying to show that he should be a lock for the first round.
There are the usual suspects who have started to see their stock climb like Detroit point Rashad Phillips and Division III point Horace Jenkins of William Patterson (N.J.). The two are doing an impression of Hofstra's Speedy Claxton, going from Portsmouth (Va.) to Phoenix and likely to Chicago to the first round like Claxton did a year ago.
But there are others who believe they are first-round picks and probably would have had a decent shot had the slew of high school big men and underclassmen not declared.
Players like Cal's Sean Lampley, Gonzaga's Casey Calvary, West Virginia's Calvin Bowman, Syracuse's Damone Brown and USC's Jeff Trepagnier -- easily the best athlete and most noticed player early in the camp -- could still get in the first round. But it's not a slam dunk anymore.
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SENIOR DESERT STARS
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Here are the seniors participating in the Nike Desert Classic NBA Draft camp:
Atlantic Team
Charlie Bell, Michigan State
Marques Maybin, Louisville
Brian Merriweather, Texas Pan-Am
Kenny Gregory, Kansas
Sean Lampley, Cal
Jeryl Sasser, SMU
Eugene Edgerson, Arizona
Ken Johnson, Ohio State
Zarko Carbarkapa, Yugoslavia
Brian Scalabrine, USC
Central Team
Rashad Phillips, Detroit
Earl Watson, UCLA
Kyle Hill, Eastern Illinois
Darren Kelly, Texas
Brian Wardle, Marquette
Damone Brown, Syracuse
Casey Calvary, Gonzaga
Damon Thornton, NC State
Isiah Victor, Tennessee
Kaspars Kambala, UNLV
Eric Chenowith, Kansas
Midwest Team
Tony Harris, Tennessee
Joe Crispin, Penn State
Carlos Arroyo, Florida Int.
Terrell Lyday, BYU
Jeff Trepagnier, USC
Bryan Bracey, Oregon
Brandon Wolfram, UTEP
Kimani Ffriend, Nebraska
Anthony Evans, Georgia
Andre Hutson, Michigan State
Pacific Team
Dean Oliver, Iowa
Horace Jenkins, William Patterson
Nolan Johnson, Oklahoma
Monty Mack, UMass
Greg Stevenson, Richmond
Martin Rancik, Iowa State
Calvin Bowman, W. Virginia
Terence Morris, Maryland
Jarron Collins, Stanford
Chris Heinrich, Saint Louis
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"You always have to prove yourself in basketball," Calvary said Tuesday. "Basketball is a business and nothing is given to you. I think in the end the NBA will do things right and look at the seniors. There will be spots for the seniors.
"Hype is hype and it's unfortunate of the politics surrounding this. The scouts and the GMs who do this for a living can see through and understand who can play the game and who can't. There are definitely guys (seniors) here who can play."
Some of the seniors view the underclassmen declaring with contempt and see it almost like invading their territory. But they don't have regrets that they stayed in school, whether it was by choice or not.
"All the underclassmen get a lot of attention and it does add a lot of pressure on the seniors, but if anything, it makes us work harder," Tennessee point Tony Harris said. "It seems like the draft is always on future potential. But we can't worry about it. I know what I can do to make my team play better."
That seems to be the consensus. Every member of the Class of 2001 is confident that they'll be chosen in the first round. But underclassmen keep declaring and say they were told they would be first-round picks, even though the numbers don't add up.
"If you're ready, you should come out. But this year there seems like a lot of young players throwing their names out who aren't ready," Lampley said. "I know I can play, and play on the next level. There are things I can work on, but it doesn't bother me that they're in the draft. Everyone can't get drafted in the first round. There will be people disappointed."
Lampley said he wouldn't change anything along the way. He got to the NCAA Tournament as a senior and said he was better prepared for the NBA because of Cal coach Ben Braun.
Morris wouldn't have changed anything, either. He's on track to graduate this summer and got to the Final Four, even if his draft status has slipped each year.
"One of the best situations I've ever been in was the Final Four," Morris said. "I had a lot of fun. I wish we could have gone further. I can only do what got me here and not do anything I haven't been doing or haven't done. I've got brothers and sisters that look up to me and I didn't want to drop out of school. Basketball is always going to be there.
"There's no more pressure on us as seniors," Morris said. "We all know what we can do and the NBA scouts have a good perspective of what we can do. A lot of people forget about the seniors. We're capable of playing with the younger guys."
Most of the players do get defensive, as do league officials when discussing all the underclassmen coming out. Publicly, they would prefer seniors in the draft. But the NBA personnel in the stands watching the workouts and scrimmages cringe when thinking about a draft that would be limited to the seniors on the floor at Arizona State and the aforementioned five who aren't in attendance.
One prominent scout said the draft wouldn't be worth having if it were just these players. But the reality is there are two rounds. Two-thirds of the first round will be gobbled up by underclassmen and foreigners, somewhat like the NHL and Major League Baseball draft.
A few seniors will be sprinkled in throughout the first round. But seniors will dominate the second round, forcing these players to prove that they deserve a guaranteed contract.
The quest began in Portsmouth, continues in Phoenix and ends in the first week of June in Chicago before the June 27 draft.
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.
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AUDIO VIDEO
 ESPN.com's Andy Katz sees a crowd developing at the top of the NBA Draft.
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ESPN.com's Andy Katz lists the seniors who have a chance at being drafted in the first round.
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