| | While great teams win in all months under every condition, there are some indicators of performance based upon the time of year. Here's a projection of when some teams might experience their greatest amount of success this season.
November-December
Early in the season, teams and coaches do not have much time to prepare, and most squads do not have all of their system put in. Unless you have a veteran team, it will take much longer to put in all of your defenses (halfcourt and fullcourt presses, man and zone), out-of-bounds plays (full court, sideline and underneath) and halfcourt sets. Keep in mind that teams are playing non-conference foes in November and December, teams that may not be familiar with what the opponent does.
|  | | Jim Calhoun had the perfect gameplan in last year's title game. |
Therefore, you are often relying upon your older and smarter players, as well as relying upon your overall talent level to win out. Early in the season, it's kind of like the age-old question in baseball. What has the early advantage, hitting or pitching?
An example of a team doing very well early is Cincinnati. The Bearcats looked unbeatable in November and December last year, handing Duke its only loss prior to the NCAA Final, winning on the road in tough environments and dominating play with their physical presence. Bob Huggins, an accomplished and undervalued coach, kept things simple and had great gameplans without giving his team too much to absorb.
Other examples of teams that seem to do well early are North Carolina and Kansas, and both are for similar reasons. North Carolina, under both Dean Smith and Bill Guthridge, is always a very well-drilled and well-prepared team. Ditto that for Kansas under Roy Williams. When those two programs have veteran players, they are both invariably ahead of other teams at the same stage. Look at last year's Preseason NIT, where the Tar Heels surprised many by taking home the crown.
January
To paraphrase a golf saying, you can't win your conference crown in January, but you sure can lose it. With the arrival of the new year comes intra-league play against known commodities. There are no secrets in league play, because everyone knows everyone else and what they like to do. If you can't go to your left, you'll be forced left until spring. If your team likes to reverse the ball through a big man at the high post, he'll be closely guarded every possession.
While this is clearly a generalization, often times you will win in January by consistently playing harder and being in better shape than your opponent (of course, every coach will tell you that is the strategy for every game and every month). Most teams are still very fresh in January, and not physically or mentally beat up. However, not all teams are in great shape and prepared for war when the new year rolls around. Show me a well-conditioned team that approaches every conference game as a life-and-death proposition, and I'll show you a team that consistently performs well in January.
Recent successes in the first month include Michigan State (does anyone play harder?), Temple (the Owls are dynamite in conference play), Duke (Coach K's upgraded play from his youngsters is a January staple), UConn (Jim Calhoun treasures regular-season crowns as much as postseason ones) and Utah (Rick Majerus runs an NBA-style system, and prepares his team to play an NBA schedule -- one game at a time).
February
These are the dog days of college basketball. Players and coaches are tired, and by the end of the month, sometimes injured and running on fumes. Conditioning is a premium in February as the second run through the conference rolls around -- along with payback appointments, and there is also a premium on being tough to defend. Teams that are multidimensional and share the ball usually do better in February.
At no time are team's system, tendencies, strengths and weaknesses better scouted and understood than in February. Teams that consistently play together and are unselfish seem to be able to perform well in college basketball's most challenging month. Examples of teams over the last few years that have spread the wealth are Stanford, College of Charleston, Kansas and Kentucky. Each have had multiple threats, move the ball well and put the ball into the hands of teammates in positions to be successful.
March
If you survive February with your wits about you, March brings new life in conference tournaments and the NCAA dance. The conference tournaments are three or four straight days of basketball, with little time to prepare and a year's worth of confidence riding on the results. The NCAA Tournament brings a scramble for information about your opponent (coaches hope game films and stats from a cross-section of performances will give them an idea of what they're facing), followed by a short turnaround to put together a coherent gameplan. Coaching becomes a premium in postseason play.
We're not just talking X's and O's here. We're talking about skills in motivation, communication and preparation. The teams that seem to do well have advance scouting capabilities (which includes the ability to quickly break down teams and identify areas of attack), gameplan formulation and players who believe in what the coaches are selling them. Coaches who are successful in March have spent a season or more conditioning their players to change, anticipate and react, and who have reinforced and conditioned winning.
A great example of a successful March coach is Majerus. Few, if any, are better than Majerus in the area of scouting and gameplan preparation and implementation. Before the NCAA Tournament, Majerus will scout his opponent from their road games, determine the abilities of individual players (like his favorite spots, whether he is a rhythm shooter or needs a dribble), patterns and plays, posting and ball reversal methods and the break. Once Majerus knows his opponent, he devises a way to disrupt what that opponent likes to do.
Nowhere was Majerus' scouting and gamplan implementation expertise more evident than in his stunning 1998 victory over Arizona in the NCAA Tournament. Majerus came up with a triangle-and-two defense on Mike Bibby and Miles Simon while daring Michael Dickerson (who had a streak of poor postseason play) to shoot, and totally took Arizona out of its game. Arguably, Majerus won the game with his analysis and preparation. | |
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