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| Saturday, November 6 | ||||||||||||
ESPN.com | |||||||||||||
Our charge was to find out how 64 teams get to March. There had to be a
plan, some sort of document, perhaps written by John Wooden or Dean Smith or
Mike Krzyzewski. We were looking for anything.
The search came up empty at every turn. No coach knew of this holy grail, yet 318 of them pursue the Division I NCAA Tournament like it's a divine quest. Some have it figured out each season. Others just don't get it. The coaches who regularly make it to March, can't say exactly how it's done. But, when their school's name is called on Selection Sunday, they understand something must have gone right.
If a team followed that plan, then it was likely to land in the NCAA Tournament. Divert from this track, and the postseason NIT would likely be its calling, or worse, it would have nothing to play for in March. "I've always laughed when people ask how do you get your team to peak at the end of the year?" Kansas coach Roy Williams says. "If there was a secret to get a team peaking at the same time, everyone would have it." We still don't. But we have an idea what it would say:
Scheduling no big secret New Mexico was criticized a year ago for having too soft a schedule. But, in the end, the easy non-conference wins set the Lobos up to get a bid. All they had to do was finish in the top two in the Western Athletic Conference Pacific Division. Temple will play anybody, anywhere. At worst, the Owls break even and then tear through the Atlantic 10. It works to get them a bid, even in years when the Owls can't get to 20 wins. Texas has done something similar and got in once with 16 wins. Arizona and Michigan State are playing brutal non-conference schedules to test their teams this season. They likely won't get hurt by losses early, largely because of a strong conference slate in January and February. "You don't learn from playing bad teams and winning by 30 or 40 points," said Arizona coach Lute Olson, who won the national title in '97 and has been to 20 NCAA Tournaments. "I would rather we're in a close game and lose, then win by 40. You get a false impression of your team." Arizona will play at Texas, Connecticut in Chicago in the Great Eight and host Michigan State all within seven days in December. Olson doesn't get into circling "must-wins." At least, he won't publicly. Few coaches ever let out that they have to reach a certain number of wins in November and December.
"A lot of coaches break up their schedule and project must-wins, question marks and possible losses to get a record," said DePaul coach Pat Kennedy, who adds that the late Jim Valvano used to project a record in the preseason when the pair were at Iona. "You can't be afraid of it," Kennedy said. "Hey, we've got 13 non-conference games and we need to come out of it 10-3. We play at Duke, at UCLA, at St. John's, Florida and we're in the Puerto Rico tournament. Six games in there are a bitch. We've got to get three of those and the other seven are must-wins." Kennedy has reason to be realistic. Had DePaul not lost a game early in the year (like at Dayton) or late (at UAB), the Blue Demons probably would have been in the NCAA, instead of the NIT.
When talent takes over Check the results from November and December and talented teams usually come through with the wins. It may sound simplistic but teams that rely on chemistry and a system (see Gonzaga losing to Kansas and TCU early in the year and beating Minnesota, Stanford and Florida in the '99 NCAA Tournament) struggle more than teams relying on talent in non-conference games. But relying on a star player won't last past New Year's. Maryland leaned on Steve Francis to jump over UCLA, Pitt, Wake Forest, Stanford and DePaul before the first semester ended. The Terps then lost at Kentucky when the star system finally failed. "Having a great player helps in November because that's not where you want your team to be in February and March," said Maryland coach Gary Williams. "Steve Francis won some games for us during that stretch. But we didn't want to get into bad habits. At that time of the year, you might be able to win one game (by leaning on talent) but in the long run it may cost you two or three losses later in the season."
Don't overload too soon But the consensus seems to be to take it slow. Remember, talent will win early. Being smarter, less predictable and more challenging will help in conference play. Rick Majerus usually spends the December-to-January holiday lull on defensive adjustments. He'll tinker with Utah's decisions to double the post or trap or how the Utes will switch into a gimmick defense for specific league opponents. Whatever he does, he's got to keep his players thinking. And he doesn't stop the fundamentals. Majerus and his staff work on skill development for 30 minutes every practice. Finding a new move, a crossover dribble or a more consistent 3-pointer can add another play to a team's portfolio."You've got to add things throughout the season," Stanford coach Mike Montgomery said. "By March, everyone would know what you're doing because of scouting. We've got to give the players something fresh. Find a way to get easy baskets for guys. Everybody loves a dunk. It gives everybody new life." When January hits, the gambles may stop. By the time March arrives, full-court play is practically nonexistent. If a coach hasn't put in something new, the players may be lost. "You can't be so repetitive," Roy Williams said. "It's really important to give them new ideas later in the season."
Time to share the wealth The teams that don't end up in the NCAA Tournament in March find themselves wondering why more players weren't involved in February. "Chemistry is so key late in the year," Roy Williams said. "Some guys are very talented but if they're not getting enough shots, that's when selfishness comes to a crest. They turn to looking at their career and numbers." This is the time when post players can get lost as guards shoot at will. The ball may not come back out when a center gets it inside, feeling the need to fight off a double team instead of kicking it back out for a jumper. Situations like this are a disaster. "We've seen that on other teams," Majerus says. "We've never had that problem. But you'll see teams come to a realization that they've got to share the ball to win."
Finding time to rest
It won't happen again. "We didn't have the energy in the second round," Majerus said. "I over-practiced them. I'll do that in November and December and I've lost games because I've overworked them. Winning 23 straight had a cumulative effect on us. We would have benefited from a loss. We had to take some of the air out and get pumped back up." Harrick takes it to an extreme. Wooden taught him to keep players on a five-days-on, two-days-off schedule for the first two weeks of practice. He has done it in February and March, too. Harrick has given his team days off before the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight, and didn't make UCLA practice the day before the '95 national title game. "I'm always conscious of keeping my team fresh for March," Harrick said. "It's immensely important for conditioning."
Coaching marches to the fore The pressure to produce is even higher at the mid- to low-major level where a three-day conference tournament can determine an NCAA berth. "It's a three-game season at that level and you better have your team playing its best," said Alabama coach Mark Gottfried, who coached Murray State to Ohio Valley Conference tourney titles and earned NCAA bids in '97 and '98. "There's no magic button to push," he said. "You've got to get your team in a great groove." Gonzaga's staff of Dan Monson, Mark Few and Billy Grier had the Bulldogs clicking last March. The Bulldogs were playing their best basketball, went hard all the time, were unselfish, adjusted to a few zones and gimmicks and seemed rested when March arrived. They were within a possession or two from beating Connecticut and getting to the Final Four. Instead, the talent of UConn seemed to take over in the final minute. In the end, the season came full circle, with talent once again being the focal point. "You can't win the thing without seven real good players," Harrick said. "You need someone with strength and power to be your black-and-blue guy inside. You need role guys. And, you're not going to win without a guy like Richard Hamilton to get you a basket. ... Miles Simon and Mike Bibby (did it) for Arizona. The year before it was Walter McCarty, Antoine Walker and Tony Delk for Kentucky. And, in our year, we had Ed O'Bannon and Tyus Edney. Coaching is a tremendous factor in March but you better have players. You're not going to make it if you don't."
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Bilas: Fit for success Chat wrap: ESPN.com's Andy Katz
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