By Jason Jackson Special to ESPN.com
After Game 1, Scott Skiles made the best comment. Their problem, he said, isn't Shaq. He will do what he's going to do, which is score anywhere between 30 and 40 points and grab 10-plus rebounds. The Suns need to focus on making sure their offensive possessions never break down. Because they need time to rebuild the relationship with Jason Kidd, the Suns will have a tendency to make bad decisions or do things less effectively than they once did before Kidd fractured his ankle. I'm not saying Kidd is a liability; that's insane. But the Suns' mistakes need to be in shot selection, not turnovers. If turnovers end up being a constant problem, the series will be over much quicker than the Lakers' first series. The Suns must focus on making players like Brian Shaw, Robert Horry, Rick Fox and the like beat them. Shaq and Kobe Bryant will score, and there's nothing the Suns can do about it. Double-teaming Shaq, who led the NBA among centers in assists, really isn't as effective as it might be for a team like the Kings. Their double-teaming worked because the situation was circumstantial; the other players weren't making their shots. If they are making shots, it's a long day -- and a short series -- for the Lakers' opponent. The Suns' key is to focus on making sure every shot they take is the absolute best one.
The Suns have to maintain the same rotation. They have an exemplary rotation. The key is getting more of their big men the opportunity to double-team Shaq. Or they can get on Shaq and take the hack-a-Shaq mentality a little more. That approach wasn't too effective in Game 1 because Shaq didn't go to the line enough. If the Suns can send Shaq to the line 15-20 times, he will not make two out of three. The plus of having a deep rotation is that the Suns have more fouls to give. The Suns need to send their extra bodies at Shaq if they are to neutralize his effectiveness.
At least they will be a little more focused. What happens sometimes is that, because of their greatness, they feel as if they can always come back. Sometimes, though, a team may get too deep into games. In Game 4 against the Kings, I remember thinking with four minutes left that the Lakers could still come back. But they never hit the trigger. That level of fragility shows the Lakers can never hunker down. They have to work from top gear and even higher at times and just never mess around because they know how fertile the ground is for another team that plants the seeds of victory along the way. If the Lakers don't allow that to happen, they build their confidence and diminish the confidence of their opponent.
Jazz vs. Blazers I think they do. It won't be an issue of effort and endurance. It will be an issue of superior athleticism. The Jazz have a distinct advantage in familiarity, something that is invaluable in the playoffs. It's something the Blazers don't have because they have people like Steve Smith, Scottie Pippen and Detlef Schrempf who have not played together before this season. But Schrempf and Pippen have played in severe championship circumstances. Where they lack in togetherness, they compensate for with playoff experience. That's where I think the true advantage can emerge for Utah. It has nothing to do with the Jazz's physical ability to run up and down the floor. But can they capitalize on playing together for so long in being savvy and intelligent beyond the ability of the Blazers?
They should. Blazers coach Mike Dunleavy has tried to keep the minutes down for a couple of players, particularly Sabonis, because of age and injuries. Now, Sabonis looks like he's running at prime speed. His passing is second only to Shaq's, but it's not really inferior to Shaq's because I think he has a broader eye of the floor -- Shaq just has more opportunities to pass. Sabonis' passing ability is a phenomenal plus for the Blazers. Polynice and Ostertag will have to shield him not only from the basket but from the rest of the floor so he doesn't see it so well and pass off to perimeter players like Steve Smith and a cutter to the basket like Rasheed Wallace.
I would hope not. The Blazers also know how tough the playoffs are even though they had a relatively easy series against Minnesota. Portland doesn't have the luxury of looking forward to anything. They want to be in the next round, and I'm sure they want the opponent to be the Lakers. On Feb. 29, when the Blazers lost to the Lakers, it sent their regular season into a .500-type tailspin. For a team as dominant as the Blazers were at one point in the season, I'm sure it was disappointing. I think they learned some lessons from that experience.
Knicks vs. Heat By looking at last year's example, I think the teams have learned their lesson. I think the series will get intense, particularly if it goes seven games -- and I think it will. I don't think the prospect of being absent from the games will be far from their minds. More so than anyone else, Alonzo Mourning realized how much he hurt his team when he had the fight with Larry Johnson in '98. As Knicks coach Jeff Van Gundy said, it was embarrassing for everybody. There is no plus in the battles, except for visual eye candy that we remember over the years. As a fight pertains to victory, being absent from a game does nothing for your macho need to defend yourself or to maintain respect.
Carter is a very serviceable backup, but Hardaway is everything for the Heat. I'm not saying he is the offensive juggernaut he once was, or that he can push the ball as well as he once did, but I think from a mental standpoint he is everything as it pertains to Miami's attitude and tempo. That feeds into confidence. When Hardaway is dishing the rock and pulling up from three and becoming a disruptive force on defense, the Heat play extremely well. They have missed his presence. With Hardaway out, everything was laid on Mourning's back. Without a couple of very impressive games from Jamal Mashburn, the Heat wouldn't be in the conference semifinals. The Heat are fortunate to have this opportunity, but to a man they would all admit that Hardaway is a vital part of the team. It starts from a cerebral standpoint and then moves into the physical aspect of being on the floor and adding points and assists as well.
Ironically, the key player is P.J. Brown, the player that the Heat look to for rebounding and defense. Brown should be able to dominate Larry Johnson in the low block. He needs to begin using his height to more of an advantage. Johnson is a strong force to have at the small of his back to keep pushing Brown away. But Brown, who is four inches taller, needs to get the ball a little lower or maybe get set up for some 15-foot jumpers on the baseline. If Brown produces double-digit points, that's something no one is expecting on a consistent basis. Combine that with his defensive rebounding, and that could be the key. While a lot of people look to Mashburn as the X-factor, I really look at the matchup between Brown and Johnson. As for the Knicks, Marcus Camby's play is critical. When he is on the floor a lot, he will get the garbage rebounds, the tip-ins and the second-chance points. That's his game, which contributes much to the Knicks' success. When Camby is on the floor, it also means that the Knicks can play a big backcourt with Houston and Sprewell, which is a big plus for the Knicks. While Hardaway and Dan Majerle are tenacious defenders, the Knicks can develop an advantage from those guard matchups.
76ers vs. Pacers Because of the things the 76ers have gone through as a team defensively, they are better equipped to beat the Pacers. Allen Iverson has learned a series of lessons. The primary one is that he doesn't have to do everything because of the play of Eric Snow, who is only getting healthier as time goes on, and Aaron McKie. Besides himself, Iverson realizes that his teammates provide other opportunities for point production. He can feel good about what Tyrone Hill and Theo Ratliff can do defensively to help them out. There's a greater level of trust. This is a problem every superstar goes through; Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal went through it a little in the Kings series. They believe that they are the only ones who can consistently provide the team with the best opportunity to win. I think Iverson has learned his lesson and has seen that other players like McKie, Snow and Toni Kukoc can help him out. That's a plus and will be helpful in the games to come.
I know Iverson will. He and Snow have the same injury -- a chip fracture in their ankle. Obviously, Snow's is more severe. It's important that he does get back to health, but McKie has done a wonderful job of filling in. While it's easy to focus on McKie's offense, I think defensively is where there was the greatest concern because Snow has done a remarkable defensive job this season. McKie has been more than adequate.
From a matchup standpoint, it's tough situation for the 76ers because Miller doesn't need a whole lot of room to get his shots, even if they put a bigger player on him. Snow, McKie or Iverson will always be on Miller, but he can shoot over each one. With Rose, he does too many things well. He can put George Lynch in foul trouble, and Rose can drive past Kukoc at will due to Kukoc's defensive lapses. Rose might be the key for the Pacers because he poses the biggest problem due to his versatility. | ||||
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