Playoffs 2000:Here's what to watch for in the first round

Here's what to watch for in the first round
By Jason Jackson
Special to ESPN.com


	Can Kobe and the Lakers fly to a title, or will some team trip them up?

NBA 2Night host Jason Jackson has been following the Association for many years and can be seen five nights a week on ESPN2 sharing his knowledge. Here he shares a little of that knowledge with us in his NBA Playoff Viewer's Guide by answering a key question for each first-round series -- and more. Enjoy.

76ers vs. Hornets: Can Philly stop Charlotte's big front line?
The 76ers always surprise me with the way they play against teams that have greater size. They can increase tempo and get players running, something the Hornets don't want to do. Overall, if the Hornets can grind things out and take advantage of their size, then Charlotte will be at an advantage. It's a very well-matched series because each team can go on a huge run to change the tempo of the contest. Allen Iverson's health may determine how successful the Sixers will be. The supporting cast loves the opportunity to play without him. Although that's no malice toward Iverson, as a team they like to show that they can win without him on the floor.

Raptors-Knicks: Does Toronto realize that dominating the regular season vs. New York is meaningless now?
I think the Raptors realize that, despite the fact that New York hasn't put up a good front against Toronto. The Raptors have a feeling about what an experienced team can do even when they are not healthy, especially after losing to Miami in a big way in their second-to-last game. In the playoffs, it's a true advantage to have battle-tested players. While Kevin Willis, Charles Oakley and Antonio Davis have seen the postseason, the Raptors' two superstars -- Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady -- have not. Until they feel the pain in the postseason, we don't know what to expect from Toronto. The excitement of Carter and McGrady will lead us to think they can handle the Knicks because they did during the season, but the Knicks have been to the NBA Finals. There is a lot to be said about that experience. It will be interesting to see what happens in Madison Square Garden, which has become like the modern-day Boston Garden, with balls bouncing the right way for the Knicks.

Bucks vs. Pacers: Are the Bucks just happy to be here or can they win a game at Conseco Fieldhouse?
I think the Bucks can win at Conseco. The near-death experience that they went through at the end of the season showed the Bucks they have to play at their highest level all the time. They can put 110 points on the board at any time, with players like Sam Cassell, Ray Allen or Glenn Robinson, but can they sustain runs of solid defense? It's not like they need to play amazing defense, but runs in which they don't let the game develop into a shootout. Indiana is the Utah Jazz of the East. The Pacers can control a game with experience and tempo. Jalen Rose has become an amazing player, one who has emerged as the team's No. 1 option. Reggie Miller has already begun deferring to Rose. The Pacers know their roles and are ready to go. They stayed on an even keel, even though they haven't played well on the road. But they will only have to play two of five possible games on the road against Milwaukee. If the Bucks can put together defensive runs, they can turn it into a dramatic five-game series.

Pistons vs. Heat: Can Anthony Carter lead this team or are the Heat done without Tim Hardaway?
It will be tough without Hardaway. Carter got some amazing and important experience when Hardaway was out earlier this season. The focal point will not be Carter. He will have to get the ball into the hands of Jamal Mashburn, whom I believe is the X-factor for Miami. If he plays like he did earlier this season, that will give Miami a huge boost. Alonzo Mourning will always provide 20 points and 10 rebounds -- and even more sometimes. But if Mashburn can take advantage of his scoring opportunities, the Heat will flourish. Sometimes, the Heat struggles offensively, which is where Hardaway is so helpful. Carter will need to pick his game up and provide some offense. He is a competent backup who has been pushed into a tough position. Detroit has its own health questions, especially with Grant Hill.

Kings vs. Lakers: Is the Chris Webber-Vlade Divac frontline enough to really give Shaquille O'Neal fits?
It really isn't unless the Kings put Webber on Shaq consistently. Body-wise, Divac won't present a defensive obstacle. Offensively, though, Divac can pull Shaq out of the paint because he likes to shoot the perimeter shot. That could be helpful to allow other players to cut through the lane and have a little bit more of an open path to the basket. But I don't think the Kings will be able to do that consistently. Both Divac and Webber can get into foul trouble from time to time, particularly against a player like Shaq who outmatches them in terms of size. If they can't pull him out of the paint, then there is no neutralization available.

Wolves vs. Blazers: Can Portland snap out of its funk the last six weeks to beat one of the hottest teams in the league?
The Blazers are in trouble. I don't think Portland ever established an eight-man rotation for the playoffs. I think it's important to get the rotation together, particularly in Portland so the Blazers don't have players with inflated expectations of their roles. They have some temperamental players who may want to maintain or increase their role on the NBA's brightest stage. It wasn't clear during the season who the go-to guy should be -- although we all know it's Rasheed Wallace -- that's still not clear. I'm not sure players even know where that will fall. In the latter stages of the season, Portland had trouble with teams like Vancouver, Golden State and Dallas. And the T-Wolves were headed in the opposite direction. I think Minnesota has a neat opportunity to create an upset.

Suns vs. Spurs: Can Anfernee Hardaway continue to carry Jason Kidd's load?
Hardaway will have to continue to carry Kidd's load for them to be successful. There is word that Tim Duncan's injury could last further into the postseason than expected. The Suns could take advantage of Duncan's condition. Penny has done an amazing job. In late-March after Kidd's injury, Hardaway needed to increase every aspect of his game, particularly the distribution of the ball, which he shied away from in Orlando. He had an opportunity to reestablish himself as a superstar, and he is on the path of doing so by being able to increase his numbers. Phoenix wants and expects Kidd back in the second round, but that will be tough if San Antonio comes at full strength. The Suns may not make it to the second round.

Sonics vs. Jazz: Is this the last shot for Utah?
Probably not. Every time people say it's the last chance for Utah to contend, the Jazz proves them wrong. The players are closer to 40 than they are to 30, but I think they should play that way, as if they won't have a chance to play together again. Jeff Hornacek is playing his last season, and Karl Malone and John Stockton take each season one at a time. No team executes offense better than the Jazz. No team plays better team defense in the West, except for the Lakers. I still see them getting to the conference semifinals or the conference finals if they control tempo and minimize mistakes they made before the All-Star break.

And two final questions:

In the East, does seeding matter, based on what the Knicks did last season and the fact there is no dominant team?
I really don't think seeding matters. The teams are so balanced, particularly in the East more so than the West. On any given day, any team can win. Overall, in the first round, I think we will see six of the eight matchups going five games, but more of them in the East.

And in the West, can anyone beat L.A.?
No. From issues of concern, the Lakers have Utah, San Antonio and then Portland. If I were Phil Jackson looking at matchups, I would like to go with that reverse order. Utah presents the biggest problem. The Jazz are disciplined and experienced, and no team runs its offense better. Granted, they will be at a defensive disadvantage. But if they can control tempo, and if they can really slow things down on the offensive end and make the Lakers make mistakes, especially with fouls, I think they can control a series. But they would lose some games in Los Angeles, particularly when the game's tempo is dictated by the crowd. Utah needs to do what it has done for years in order to present a problem for the Lakers. If Portland could get its mind-set together and get a decent run of fouls at Shaq to make him shoot free throws, the Blazers could have some success.