Here are takes on the biggest deals of the last 24 hours.
Red Sox get Expos get
Ugueth Urbina Tomo Ohka
Rich Rundles
The Red Sox typically feature one of the American League's top bullpens, but this year the Sox rank just sixth in the league with a 3.70 ERA, and of course Urbina figures to lower that mark.
As for Tomo Ohka, I still think he's going to be a quality starter in the major leagues. But it's become quite clear over the years that the Red Sox simply don't have any interest in developing young pitchers, so why not trade Ohka? And if he develops as he should, the Expos have the makings of a solid rotation for years to come. Rundles, a 20-year-old lefty, must have been hurt last year, pitched well in the Gulf Coast League but only 40 innings. This year, he's pitched quite well for Augusta in the Class A South Atlantic League: 2.43 ERA, 94 strikeouts and only 10 walks in 115 innings. Looks like a pretty good prospect, and you know he has a good arm if he was drafted in the third round.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox now have two solid closers in Urbina and Derek Lowe ... but they could still use a leadoff man, because Jose Offerman seems to be just about finished.
Braves get Royals get
Rey Sanchez Brad Voyles
Alejandro Machado
The Braves get a Gold Glove-quality shortstop, albeit one who contributes little to his team's run production (certainly a sore spot for the Braves). And after this season, Sanchez will leave as a free agent and the Braves will receive a draft pick as compensation.
And the Royals? Neither Voyles nor Machado are Grade A prospects, but Kansas City general manager Allard Baird probably did about as well as could have been expected, given both Sanchez's contract status and Baird's own inability to negotiate. Voyles is a 24-year-old relief pitcher with solid stuff who still needs to improve his control, and hasn't yet reached Triple-A. Machado, a second baseman, is still a baby, only 19 years old. He doesn't have any power at all, but does have great speed and decent plate discipline, though the Royals will likely beat the latter out of him.
Astros get Rockies get
Pedro Astacio Scott Elarton
????
From the frying pan into the fire. Both Astacio and Elarton might reasonably have assumed that if they did get traded, they'd catch a break in their new homes. Not so. Elarton now moves to the toughest pitcher's park of our time, and Astacio goes to what might be the second-toughest. In the short-term -- that is, for the next two months -- this deal works better for the Astros. Astacio is just 6-13 for the Rockies this season, but let's look at his road numbers this season, along with Elarton's:
ERA IP Hits HR BB SO
Astacio 4.26 80 77 7 26 68
Elarton 6.67 54 67 12 23 32
Elarton's been a disaster this year, and it hasn't really mattered where he's pitched. Remember, this is a guy who, just two years ago, looked like a future Cy Young candidate. Now he'll call Coors Field his home ballpark, and it might reasonably be posited that his career is in grave danger.
But we can't really evaluate this deal until we know who the Rockies receive as the Player to Be Named Later. If it's really Daryle Ward (as has been rumored) then we might argue that this ain't Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd's finest hour. Ward's a fine hitter and would post some awesome stats at Coors Field. But he should never play any position other than DH or first base, and unfortunately neither of those are an option with the Rockies.
Twins get Mets get
Rick Reed Matt Lawton
One thing that might worry me if I were a Twins fan, or Terry Ryan ... Over the last four seasons, Rick Reed has pitched significantly better at Shea Stadium than on the road. His year-by-year splits:
Home ERA Road ERA
1998 2.24 5.38
1999 3.86 5.14
2000 4.08 4.13
2001 3.01 4.31
Totals 3.13 4.75
What might account for this significant difference between Reed's performance at home and on the road? I believe it's the dimensions of Shea Stadium, which is fairly tough on power hitters (Reed, of course, is a righty). Over those same four years listed in the table, Reed has allowed 39 homers at Shea, 58 on the road. And that difference is even greater than it might appear, because Reed has thrown 44 more innings at home than on the road. Since 1998, Reed has allowed 0.97 homers per nine innings at Shea, but 1.64 homers per nine innings outside of Queens.
That's obviously a significant difference ... and the Metrodome is a good place for left-handed power hitters.
All this doesn't mean that Rick Reed can't pitch well for the Twins -- anything can happen in two months -- but if I were a betting man, I would bet against it.
But is Matt Lawton a significant loss? He leads the Twins with 63 walks and a .396 on-base percentage. On the other hand, he's a right fielder with a .439 slugging percentage, which isn't particularly impressive. Still, Lawton is probably Minnesota's third-most productive hitter, behind Doug Mientkiewicz and Corey Koskie. And with the Twins already playing two outfielders who can't hit -- Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones -- one wonders how the Twins will replace Lawton's production. Given Reed's age (almost 36) and his contract (signed through 2003), this deal looks like a net W for the Mets.
Yankees get Padres get
Sterling Hitchcock Brett Jodie
Darren Blakely
Jodie is a big right-hander who relies on finesse and outstanding control rather than velocity, and this year he's gone 10-4 with a 2.87 ERA in Triple-A ... and that's come after he essentially skipped Double-A. It's said that Jodie regularly throws his fastball in the low 90s, though his strikeout rate this season -- 59 K's in 119 innings -- doesn't really support that notion. Still, with the proper care and feeding, Jodie figures to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter as soon as next season.
Blakely's a 24-year-old outfielder with "tools: who isn't yet much of a baseball player. He still hasn't played well at the Class AA level, and probably won't ever develop enough plate discipline to play regularly in the majors.
Hitchcock is, of course, a fine pitcher. But is there any doubt that he, like Rick Reed, has benefited greatly from his home ballpark? From 1997 through 2001, Hitchcock posted a 3.84 ERA in San Diego ... and a 5.44 ERA on the road. So we shouldn't be at all surprised to see Hitchcock struggle in pinstripes.
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