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'Smarty' by the numbers: Worthy to wear Crown? By Jeremy Plonk Special to ESPN.com Comparing ballplayers over different eras has long been water cooler discussion. Do you prefer Barry Bonds to Babe Ruth, Michael Jordan to Wilt Chamberlain or Jerry Rice to Jim Brown? In the court of public opinion, there's no easy verdict. Comparing racehorses over different eras may be an even more daunting task. Comparing the racehorses in a single, $10,000 Wednesday afternoon event at Belmont Park will bring 10 different opinions on the 10 entrants. Such debate fuels the pari-mutuel wagering aspects of the industry. So how can we measure Smarty Jones' run toward the Triple Crown with the 11 galloping ghosts before him that tallied the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes? Opinions vary too greatly to make the discussion fruitful; the closest thing to the truth may lie in the numbers.
From a pure, statistical standpoint, our exclusive ESPN.com rankings measure Smarty Jones along with the past Triple Crown winners in eight categories that span any generation. The categories compare the horses' ability to: win races, win stakes races, win races convincingly, win Triple Crown races convincingly, take on all comers, carry their ability over multiple racetracks and distances, and to win over "off" racetracks when Mother Nature throws her own curveball into the mix. Categories such as earnings and final race times were omitted because of a wide discrepancy in purse monies offered over the past century and major improvements in racetrack maintenance. All comparisons begin with the Triple Crown winners' first career start and end with the running of the Belmont Stakes. The goal is to measure the greatest Triple Crown winner, not the horse who went on to further greatness later in life. Horses are ranked from 1 through 12 and assigned that corresponding point total. The lowest point total at the end of the eight categories will be crowned our statistical greatest Triple Crown winner of all-time. For the purposes of this study, we're conceding the Belmont Stakes to Smarty Jones so that we can see where he would stack up historically if he were to complete the sweep on June 5.
Career win percentage Topping the Triple Crown champs in this category are Seattle Slew (1977) and Smarty Jones (2004). Both Seattle Slew and Smarty Jones own a perfect win percentage of 1.00 behind nine-for-nine records. Citation (1948) checks in third with a .900 mark, followed by Affirmed (1978) at .875.
Percentage of starts resulting in a stakes win Smarty Jones (2004) tops the champions' list with an .889 mark in this category. Of his 9 lifetime starts, 8 have resulted in a stakes victory. Affirmed (1978) ranks second at .750, while Secretariat (1973) and Seattle Slew (1977) match strides in third at .667.
Career margin of victory Count Fleet (1943) dominated his respective competition by an average of 6.94 lengths, winning 16 of 20 starts - eight of those by 5 lengths or more including the Walden Stakes at Pimlico by 30 lengths and the Belmont Stakes by 25. Secretariat (1973) rates second in career margin of victory, winning by an average of 6.02 lengths. Smarty Jones (2004) sits third on the list at 5.94 lengths per win going into the Belmont Stakes. If he were to win the Belmont by only a nose, his margin would drop to 5.27 and still rate third-best in the study.
Margin of victory in Triple Crown races Count Fleet (1943) and Secretariat (1973) share top billing in this category, both winning their respective crown races by 12 lengths on average. Count Fleet won the Derby by 3, the Preakness by 8 and the Belmont by a then-record 25 lengths. Secretariat came along 30 years later and re-wrote the Belmont record to 31 lengths, following identical 2-1/2 length victories in the Derby and Preakness. With the Belmont Stakes left to run, Smarty Jones ranks third on this list with an average winning margin of 7.13 lengths in his Triple Crown tallies. He would have to win the Belmont by 22 lengths to overtake the top spot. The narrowest Belmont win by a nose would drop his margin to 4.75 and still rank fifth, behind Citation (1948) at 5.67 lengths and Whirlaway at 5.33 lengths.
Taking on all comers But just how many have lined up to face the Triple Crown champions? How many hurdles stood in the way? If six challengers line up in the Belmont Stakes, Smarty Jones (2004) will have faced more opposition in the Triple Crown than any of the prior champions. Having already dispatched 17 challengers in Louisville and 9 in Baltimore, Smarty Jones figures to surpass War Admiral (1937) for the top spot in this category. War Admiral defeated 32 runners in his three-race sweep, edging Assault (1946), who outran 31 others in his tour de force.
Winning at multiple tracks Which of the Triple Crown winners were able to take their show on the road most often with victorious results? Whirlaway (1941) won over 9 different racetracks en route to his Triple Crown, and they weren't just around the block. Whirlaway won races in Chicago, Kentucky, New York, Maryland and Florida. Citation (1948) places second with wins over 8 different racetracks, followed by Affirmed (1978), Secretariat (1973) and Count Fleet (1943) with 7. Smarty Jones (2004) will have won over 6 tracks following the Belmont, tying for sixth-best in this category with Gallant Fox (1930).
Winning at multiple distances Citation (1948) won over an amazing total of 11 different distances. He began his career in a 4-1/2 furlong (990-yard) dash and never looked back. In fact, he won 7 sprint races before ever stretching out around two turns. Smarty Jones (2004), Affirmed (1978) and Count Fleet (1943) tie for second with victories at 9 different distances. Amazingly, Smarty Jones' 9 lifetime races have all been at different distances, winning them all.
Winning on "off" tracks Four of the champions surveyed owned perfect records on an off-track: Count Fleet (1943), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Smarty Jones (2004). Each display a 1.00 mark in the adverse conditions, most recently displayed by Smarty Jones' victory on a sloppy track in Kentucky Derby. It should be noted that all 12 of these remarkable runners won at least half of their starts on an off-track. So Who Is The Greatest Triple Crown Champion? With the lowest point total rating best, these eight category rankings produce some startling results. No. 12 Omaha (72 points): 1932 champ went from 2-for-11 to Triple Crown hero in three races. No. 11 Sir Barton (69 points): first crown winner in 1919 lost all 6 starts before Derby, but blossomed. No. 10 Gallant Fox (63 points): actually won the Preakness before the Derby and Belmont in 1930 No. 9 Assault (62 points): Texas-bred given cold shoulder at 8-to-1 in winning Derby in 1946. No.8 Whirlaway (59 points): 11 races against non-stakes horses padded stats of 1941 champ. No. 7 War Admiral (58 points): 1937 star seldom won by huge margins, dropping his numbers here. No. 6 Affirmed (50 points): Small fields in Triple Crown and close wins over Alydar dropped 1978 hero in ratings. No. 5 Citation (37 points): Superstar ranked in the top 5 in 6 of the 8 categories, but plagued by lack of challengers in 1948 series. No. 4 Seattle Slew (37 points): Undefeated in his run through the '77 Triple Crown, hindered only by smallish win margins in Derby and Preakness. No. 3 Count Fleet (34 points): Retired after '43 Belmont win by 25 lengths. Who said only modern horses leave us too soon? Only knock was the fact only 14 challengers in 3 Triple Crown wins. No. 2 Secretariat (27 points): If times were applicable over the decades, he'd no doubt be the horse for the ages, setting track records in all three Triple Crown races of 1973. Few would argue his place in history. No. 1 Smarty Jones (18 points): Stunning, no doubt. With a victory in the Belmont Stakes, statistically speaking, Smarty Jones could be considered the greatest Triple Crown winner of all-time. He ranked in the top 3 in 7 of the 8 categories, showing little to no comparative weakness. While time reveres champions, sports fans often conjure up images of immortality for heroes of days gone by. The modern star suffers from lack of nostalgia. Smarty Jones' critics may point to mediocre final race times in the Derby and Preakness, or a lack of a superstar rival to test his mettle. But a horse can't change the weather or depth of dirt on a racing strip, nor can he make the competition around him rise to new levels. A champion separates himself from the pack. While no one can definitively say Smarty Jones would have beaten the likes of War Admiral, Seattle Slew or Secretariat, it is certainly safe to say a victory in the June 5 Belmont Stakes would be one for the ages - one that would properly place a deserving champion among the select, all-time greats in racing history. Jeremy Plonk is the editor of The HorsePlayer Magazine and lead researcher for Triple Crown broadcasts on ESPN and ESPN2
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