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Saturday, January 8
War Room: Dolphins at Seahawks


Miami offense vs. Seattle defense
DOLPHINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 22
Pass 12
Tot. Yds. 21
Scoring 13
Int's allowed 21
Sacks allowed 37
   
SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 24
vs. Pass 16
Total yds. allowed 23
# of Ints. 30
# of Sacks 38
Turnover differential +3
If one positive can be taken out of last week's loss to the Redskins, it is the fact that the Dolphins were allowed to rest a lot of players on the offensive side of the ball that were hobbled by injury.

Even though running the ball is going to be the key to the Dolphins success, the biggest concern heading into the showdown in the Kingdome is how well QB Dan Marino is going to bounce back after a disastrous 1999 regular season. Marino is experienced, playing in his 16th playoff game, but the veteran is clearly not playing at a high enough level to lead his team to victory. Marino is making a lot of poor reads, forcing the ball into coverage and making throws that his arm is simply not capable of completing any more.

The play of the Dolphin receiving corps is critical. Tony Martin has done what has been asked of him. Despite not putting up the numbers he would have liked to, the speedster is getting vertical and opening up a lot of room for his complementary receivers to work. O.J. McDuffie and Orande Gadsden are both ailing, but it is critical that they step up as go-to receivers in the short-to-intermediate zone.

Seattle is going to look to pressure Marino and force his receivers to make a lot of hot-read recognition and create production off the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks have played tough defensively down the stretch because they have turned up the heat on opponents more by using more aggressive blitz schemes and stunt action underneath. The Seahawks, especially against a Miami offense that has struggled lately, need to put the pressure on QB Dan Marino and force the Dolphins to guess in the passing game.

The Dolphins welcome the return of RB J.J. Johnson, who has been battling a nagging hamstring problem. Johnson needs to stay healthy for the entire game if Miami is to sustain drives and keep the Seahawks potentially high-powered passing attack on the sidelines. Johnson is a big back with a bruising running style, and will face a physical front four in the Seahawks.

The key to running the football against the Seahawks is to neutralize DT's Cortez Kennedy and Sam Adams. The Dolphins have had some trouble up front this season, particularly in the interior, but the unit has seemingly settled into their respective roles and look to be playing their best football as a collective group all season. OG's Kevin Gogan, Mark Dixon and OC Tim Ruddy need to step up their play by taking the Seahawk defensive tackles out of the game.

Seattle has an extremely active defensive front, but they tend to wear down as games progress. If Johnson can carry the ball around 30 times, he will give the Dolphins the type of offensive attack that will keep them in the game down the stretch.

Seattle offense vs. Miami defense
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 25
Pass 15
Tot. Yds. 24
Scoring 12
Int's allowed 16
Sacks allowed 38
   
DOLPHINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 8
vs. Pass 4
Total yds. allowed 4
# of Ints. 18
# of Sacks 39
Turnover differential -6
The key to this matchup is the play of QB Jon Kitna, which is directly tied to the Seahawks' ability to run the ball. RB Ricky Watters started last week against the Jets, but was not the same back after spraining the MCL in his right knee just seven days earlier. Watters had trouble cutting and did not show the same burst out of his stance that makes him a formidable back in this league. Watters has had another week of treatment, and will be looked upon to carry the ball at least 20 times on Sunday.

Despite all the problems the Dolphins have endured down the stretch, the one consistent aspect of this team has been the play of the run defense, which held Washington to just 68 yards on 29 carries, aside from a 37-yard reverse. Miami has benefited from tremendous play from its defensive tackles, especially Daryl Gardener.

The reason that this unit is so dominant is that they clog holes in the middle and force teams to run wide on their extremely active and speed-oriented linebacking corps. MLB Zach Thomas is the anchor of this unit against the run, and he will need to be a playmaker in the middle of the field. Often times, teams try to use their center to get out and seal the linebacker, but he is too athletic and quick to get held up by an offensive lineman.

The Seahawks are going to need a big game out of FB's Reggie Brown and Brian Milne as an isolation blocker. If Brown and Milne do not get through traffic and reach Thomas, the already hobbled Ricky Watters is going to be forced to create running room to the outside and he will likely be unsuccessful in that role.

The one advantage the Seahawks have on offense is that the Dolphins are struggling at the left cornerback position, which is forcing the unit to play a less aggressive scheme. Kitna should find some time to throw in the pocket this week because the Dolphins are having to keep their safeties and linebackers back in coverage more often instead of incorporating them in the blitz package.

The Seahawks are going to look to spread the field using mostly three-receiver sets with Joey Galloway, Sean Dawkins and Derrick Mayes. This is an explosive receiving trio, but they have not been as productive as originally thought because the timing has not been there since the return of Galloway.

Kitna is going to be the difference in the passing game because he is the one that makes everything happen within the "West Coast" system, spreading the ball around to his weapons. Kitna has benefited recently from a more simplified and shortened passing game, but he is still inexperienced and shows a lot of that inexperience when teams blitz him. If Kitna forces things early on, it is going to put the Seahawks in a predicament because they will be forced to fight an uphill battle against a defense that has the potential to capitalize on mistakes.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category MIA SEA
Punt return avg. 12 1
Kickoff return avg. 4 8
Opp. punt return avg. 20 23
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 20 5
Time of possession 7 28
Olindo Mare finished the season as the all-time leader in field goals in a single season, connecting on 39-of-46 attempts with a long of 54 yards. Tom Hutton, who will not return next season, finished averaging just 40.8 yards per attempt. The Dolphin return game has been solid all season, as Nate Jacquet averaged 11.8 yards per punt return and Brock Marion averaged 24.6 yards per kickoff return. Todd Peterson finished one of the strongest seasons of his career, nailing 34-of-40 field goal attempts with a long of 51. Charlie Rogers will return as the Seahawks punt return specialist after missing the finale due to injury. Rogers averaged 14.5 yards per punt return. Ahman Green had a disappointing season as the teams' kickoff return specialist, averaging just 22.7-yards per return.

Key matchups
  • Seattle WR Joey Galloway vs. Miami CB Patrick Surtain
    Perhaps one of the biggest reasons for Miami's collapse at the end of the season has been the play of CB's Surtain and Terrell Buckley. Surtain will start opposite Sam Madison, but the inexperienced cover corner has shown a tendency to bite on the play fake and lose track of coverage against the vertical passing routes. Galloway has not had the type of return that many had hoped for, but he is still one of the top athletes in the league, and has the ability to get downfield in a heartbeat. If Surtain is not patient and disciplined, Galloway is going to be the game breaker for the Seahawks.

  • Seattle RT Grant Williams vs. Miami DE Jason Taylor
    Williams has emerged as one of the Seahawks top offensive lineman this season while Taylor has had a disappointing season and is part of the reason for less overall pressure on opposing quarterbacks. However, Taylor has the speed and quickness off the edge to make this a real matchup problem for the Seahawks in the passing game. Williams should be able to lock on and get a good surge in the run game, but concentrate on this matchup in pass protection as it could give the Seahawks some serious problems.

  • Miami WR O.J. McDuffie vs. Seattle CB Shawn Springs
    This is the marquee matchup of the game. Springs is one of the top cover corners in the league, while McDuffie is one of the more productive receivers. McDuffie is not going to challenge Springs much down the field, but should be able to work the cornerback underneath. Springs has a tendency to gamble on the short pass often, which makes this matchup even more intriguing because it gives the opportunity for the big play for both parties involved.

    Miami will win if...
  • Dan Marino plays within himself. Marino's passing problems since returning from injury are no secret. He is making poor reads, forcing balls into coverage and his passes are not as crisp and have a tendency to tail. With that said, Marino is still capable of leading this team to victory. He is intelligent enough and a savvy enough veteran that if put in the right offensive flow, he can make some throws to catch the defense overcommitting. The Dolphins are obviously going to have to run the ball effectively to win, but the most crucial aspect of the game is going to be Marino not forcing plays.

  • The interior offensive line holds its ground. The key to running the football against the Seahawks is to neutralize DT's Cortez Kennedy and Sam Adams. The Dolphins have had some trouble up front this season, particularly in the interior, but the unit has seemingly settled into their respective roles and look to be playing the best football as a collective group all season. OG's Kevin Gogan, Mark Dixon and OC Tim Ruddy need to step up their play by taking the Seahawk defensive tackles out of the game.

  • Defensive coordinator George Hill designs a masterful coverage scheme. Seahawk QB Jon Kitna has had a lot of trouble when teams throw heavy blitz schemes at him and disguise coverage. Head coach Mike Holmgren has done an excellent job of shortening up the passing game to make Kitna's reads quicker and easier, but the passing game has still shown inconsistency when defenses force Kitna into quick decisions against coverage that he is not familiar with.

    Seattle will win if...

  • They maintain an aggressive defensive gameplan. The Seahawks have played tough defensively down the stretch because they have turned up the heat on opponents more by using more aggressive blitz schemes and stunt action underneath. The Seahawks, especially against a Miami offense that has struggled lately, need to put the pressure on QB Dan Marino and force the Dolphins to guess in the passing game.

  • QB Jon Kitna takes what is given to him. Kitna has benefited recently from a more simplified and shortened passing game, but he is still inexperienced and shows a lot of that inexperience when teams blitz him. Kitna is the key to the Seahawk's version of the West Coast offense, because he is responsible for spreading the ball around to his weapons. If Kitna forces things early on, it is going to put the Seahawks in a predicament because they will be forced to fight an uphill battle against a defense that has the potential to capitalize on mistakes.

  • Ricky Watters becomes one of the focal point of the offense. Watters is still a bit gimpy, but he is going to have to carry a chunk of the load for the Seahawks if they expect to move the ball against an extremely fast and aggressive Miami defense. Watters is the type of back that flourishes when he gets a lot of touches early in the game because it gets his head in the game and he tends to work harder if he feels he is the go-to guy on offense.

    The War Room edge
    This matchup features two teams that backed their ways into the playoffs after very disappointing ends to the season. The Seahawks have shown some signs of breaking out of their late-season slump, but the majority of inconsistent attributes still exist on both sides of the ball. The Dolphins head into the Wild Card game playing some of their worst football of their season, and are struggling on both sides of the ball to find themselves. The key to the game is going to be quarterback play, as Jon Kitna and Dan Marino are two extremely capable leaders that are struggling to find a rhythm in their respective offenses. Expect a somewhat sloppy game that is dominated by big plays on the defensive side of the ball as the Seahawks take advantage of playing a home game in the playoffs and advance to the next round.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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