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Friday, January 7 War Room: Bills at Titans The War Room Buffalo offense vs. Tennessee defense
Although Phillips' move may disrupt team chemistry, it opens up the offensive scheme and gives the Bills a more diversified attack. Teams have been packing it in against Buffalo because Flutie has had some trouble connecting on the deep ball. If WR's Eric Moulds and Peerless Price can get vertical against the Titan secondary, Tennessee will not be able to play as aggressively up front. Tennessee's pass rush is the most important variable of this playoff matchup. The Titans are second in the league with 54 sacks, and their constistent pressure make throwing the ball difficult. Tennessee plays an aggressive "46" defense, featuring a heavy blitz package wherein defensive lineman often drop into coverage to disguise reads. Johnson will be forced to make frequent hot reads against Tennessee's pressure, especially in light of Buffalo's injuries at offensive tackle. OT Robert Hicks aggravated his high ankle sprain on the first series of last weeks' game, and was replaced by Marcus Spriggs. Spriggs will get the start at the right tackle position, where his inability to mirror and slide in pass protection could be a huge factor in when he matches up against DE Jevon Kearse -- a 14 + sackman in his rookie season. At left tackle, John Fina will play, but he is hobbled by a knee injury which will hinder his ability to move a solid Henry Ford (5 sacks on the season) in the running game. The Bills need to run the ball well if they expect to hold onto the football and slow down the tempo on the road. Buffalo rushed for an average of 127.5 yards per game -- a deceiving stat when viewing film of the team. The Bills have done a poor job in short-yardage situations and have been unable to put games away running the ball. Fortunately, the Bills finally have three healthy running backs to run at the Tiatans. RB's Antowain Smith, Jonathan Linton and Thurman Thomas will be able to spell each other, which means the running attack should be fresh late into the game. The Titans are a tough unit to run against, yielding just 96.9 yards per game, but if the Bills are able to connect on some downfield passes early on, it should open up some room underneath and force the Titans to play a more honest scheme in the box. Tennessee offense vs. Buffalo defense
Eddie George is obviously the catalyst of the running game, where he ranks second in the AFC in scoring (among non-kickers) with 78 points and total yards from scrimmage with 1,762, but just as critical to the running game are the play of FB Lorenzo Neal and the offensive line. Anchored by NT Ted Washington, the Bills line must play tough up front. Washington is a big, powerful inside player, who is relied upon to take up space in the middle and clog the running lanes between the tackles. Against a team with such a productive isolation blocker like Neal, the key is to close up the running lanes before the fullback can get through the line of scrimmage. In last week's dominating defensive performance against the Colts, Buffalo did an excellent job of penetrating up front, allowing the linebacking corps to make plays on the move. Edgerrin James managed just 50 yards rushing, as the Bills No. 1-ranked defense got another stellar game out of their linebackers. Once again, Sam Cowart and John Holecek need to play actively in the middle to nullify George's cutback lanes, while OLB Sam Rogers and Gabe Northern must continue to string plays to the sideline. The passing game in this matchup is an interesting one because of the injuries in the Bills secondary and the marginal performance the Titan receivers have given their team. Thinned by injuries to DC Ken Irvin and dime safety Manny Martin, the Bills are in a predicament when the Titans decide to spread the field. Tennessee does not have a tremendously deep or potent receiving corps, but they get a lot of help from the H-Back position and are capable of forcing the Bills into a lot of nickel and dime situations. Buffalo is forced to move starting cornerback Antoine Winfield inside on the slot receiver on nickel downs, leaving reserve Donovan Greer to play the right cornerback position, an area of weakness that the Titans will certainly try to exploit. With the return of WR Yancey Thigpen to the lineup, QB Steve McNair becomes a greater threat. McNair seems to have found his rhythm in the offense after struggling after his return from injury, and if Thigpen can stretch the Buffalo secondary, McNair will have a lot more room to work to his underneath receivers and force the Bills to defend against the pass/run option. Special teams
This could be the most critical matchup of the game for the Titans. Tennessee likes to use its linebackers to cover the tight ends, and have gotten away with it for most of the season. If Bowden can handle this matchup, the safeties will have more flexibility in coverage and be able to provide more support versus the run. The problem for the Titans is that Riemersma is one of the toughest tight ends in the league for a linebacker to cover, and his speed and athleticism should cause Bowden some problems in coverage.
This matchup will dictate Buffalo's effectiveness on the ground. Gash, an All-Pro purely because of his blocking skills, is a vital component to a Bills running game that averages 127.5 yards per game. The Titans are extremely aggressive in their "46" defense, which means that the MLB position is relied on heavily versus the run game. With so much movement and blitzing in the Tennessee scheme, Wortham is counted on to shed a lot of isolation blocks, making the play between the tackles.
Thigpen's return after missing five games has diversified the offensive attack for the Titans. Teams are no longer able to stack as many as nine defenders on the line of scrimmage to spot RB Eddie George. The Bills are forced to respect Thigpen's speed and propensity to stretch the field, which makes his matchup with rookie CB Winfield so interesting. Winfield is an outstanding athlete who has withstood the challenge of being targeted by opposing passing games, but his pension for gambling is a concern for the Bills and it will likely mean that Buffalo defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell will use FS Kurt Schulz to play a lot of cloud coverage to Thigpen's side, giving Winfield a safety valve if he gets caught taking false steps. Buffalo will win if...
Tennessee will win if...
The War Room edge
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