COMMUNITY
 Letters to Editor
Send a letter
BACKSTAGE
 The Magazine
ESPN Radio


 ALSO SEE
ESPN.com's NFL playoff coverage

Bills (11-5) at Titans (13-3)

War Room preview: Cowboys at Vikings

War Room preview: Dolphins at Seahawks

War Room preview: Lions at Redskins

AFC: Bills might be due



 ESPN.com
NFL

COLLEGE FB

NBA

NHL

M COLLEGE BB

W COLLEGE BB

GOLF ONLINE

BASEBALL

SOCCER

EXTREME SPORTS


Friday, January 7
War Room: Bills at Titans


Buffalo offense vs. Tennessee defense
BILLS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 8
Pass 21
Tot. Yds. 11
Scoring 16
Int's allowed 16
Sacks allowed 27
   
TITANS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 11
vs. Pass 25
Total yds. allowed 17
# of Ints. 16
# of Sacks 54
Turnover differential +18
Usually a conservative decision maker, head coach Wade Phillips is going with the hot hand by starting Rob Johnson -- who shredded the Colts for 31 points and 287 yards passing in Week 17. Johnson gives this unit an entirely different look at the quarterback position. He is a strong-armed pocket passer who will force the Titans to play a more honest secondary scheme.

Although Phillips' move may disrupt team chemistry, it opens up the offensive scheme and gives the Bills a more diversified attack. Teams have been packing it in against Buffalo because Flutie has had some trouble connecting on the deep ball. If WR's Eric Moulds and Peerless Price can get vertical against the Titan secondary, Tennessee will not be able to play as aggressively up front.

Tennessee's pass rush is the most important variable of this playoff matchup. The Titans are second in the league with 54 sacks, and their constistent pressure make throwing the ball difficult. Tennessee plays an aggressive "46" defense, featuring a heavy blitz package wherein defensive lineman often drop into coverage to disguise reads.

Johnson will be forced to make frequent hot reads against Tennessee's pressure, especially in light of Buffalo's injuries at offensive tackle. OT Robert Hicks aggravated his high ankle sprain on the first series of last weeks' game, and was replaced by Marcus Spriggs. Spriggs will get the start at the right tackle position, where his inability to mirror and slide in pass protection could be a huge factor in when he matches up against DE Jevon Kearse -- a 14 + sackman in his rookie season. At left tackle, John Fina will play, but he is hobbled by a knee injury which will hinder his ability to move a solid Henry Ford (5 sacks on the season) in the running game.

The Bills need to run the ball well if they expect to hold onto the football and slow down the tempo on the road. Buffalo rushed for an average of 127.5 yards per game -- a deceiving stat when viewing film of the team. The Bills have done a poor job in short-yardage situations and have been unable to put games away running the ball.

Fortunately, the Bills finally have three healthy running backs to run at the Tiatans. RB's Antowain Smith, Jonathan Linton and Thurman Thomas will be able to spell each other, which means the running attack should be fresh late into the game.

The Titans are a tough unit to run against, yielding just 96.9 yards per game, but if the Bills are able to connect on some downfield passes early on, it should open up some room underneath and force the Titans to play a more honest scheme in the box.

Tennessee offense vs. Buffalo defense
TITANS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 13
Pass 17
Tot. Yds. 15
Scoring 7
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 26
   
BILLS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 4
vs. Pass 1
Total yds. allowed 1
# of Ints. 12
# of Sacks 37
Turnover differential -6
The Titans were the only team in the AFC to win every home game during the regular season, defeating the top team in each conference along the way (St. Louis and Jacksonville). The key for the Titans is going to be their ability to establish tempo on offense by running the football. The Titans were 13th in the NFL (ninth in the AFC) in rushing offense, averaging 113.2 yards per game.

Eddie George is obviously the catalyst of the running game, where he ranks second in the AFC in scoring (among non-kickers) with 78 points and total yards from scrimmage with 1,762, but just as critical to the running game are the play of FB Lorenzo Neal and the offensive line.

Anchored by NT Ted Washington, the Bills line must play tough up front. Washington is a big, powerful inside player, who is relied upon to take up space in the middle and clog the running lanes between the tackles. Against a team with such a productive isolation blocker like Neal, the key is to close up the running lanes before the fullback can get through the line of scrimmage.

In last week's dominating defensive performance against the Colts, Buffalo did an excellent job of penetrating up front, allowing the linebacking corps to make plays on the move. Edgerrin James managed just 50 yards rushing, as the Bills No. 1-ranked defense got another stellar game out of their linebackers. Once again, Sam Cowart and John Holecek need to play actively in the middle to nullify George's cutback lanes, while OLB Sam Rogers and Gabe Northern must continue to string plays to the sideline.

The passing game in this matchup is an interesting one because of the injuries in the Bills secondary and the marginal performance the Titan receivers have given their team. Thinned by injuries to DC Ken Irvin and dime safety Manny Martin, the Bills are in a predicament when the Titans decide to spread the field.

Tennessee does not have a tremendously deep or potent receiving corps, but they get a lot of help from the H-Back position and are capable of forcing the Bills into a lot of nickel and dime situations. Buffalo is forced to move starting cornerback Antoine Winfield inside on the slot receiver on nickel downs, leaving reserve Donovan Greer to play the right cornerback position, an area of weakness that the Titans will certainly try to exploit.

With the return of WR Yancey Thigpen to the lineup, QB Steve McNair becomes a greater threat. McNair seems to have found his rhythm in the offense after struggling after his return from injury, and if Thigpen can stretch the Buffalo secondary, McNair will have a lot more room to work to his underneath receivers and force the Bills to defend against the pass/run option.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category BUF TEN
Punt return avg. 10 17
Kickoff return avg. 21 31
Opp. punt return avg. 18 9
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 21 16
Time of possession 1 8
Steve Christie finished his roller coaster season connecting on 25-of-34 with a long of 52 yards. Chris Mohr has had an extremely disappointing season for the Bills, averaging just 38.9 yards per punt while landing just 20 punts inside the opponent's twenty-yard line. Last week, return man Kevin Williams continued his downward spiral in the second half of the season, averaging just 14 yards on three kickoff returns. Al Del Greco has done a solid job for the Titans, connecting on 21-of-25 field goal attempts with a long of 50. Craig Hentrich finished the season with an average of 42.5 yards per punt, and dropped 35-of-90 attempts inside the opponent's twenty-yard line. Derrick Mason has had a disappointing season as the Titans' punt return specialist, averaging just 8.9 yards per punt return with a long of 39 yards.

Key matchups
  • Buffalo TE Jay Riemersma vs. Tennessee LB Joe Bowden
    This could be the most critical matchup of the game for the Titans. Tennessee likes to use its linebackers to cover the tight ends, and have gotten away with it for most of the season. If Bowden can handle this matchup, the safeties will have more flexibility in coverage and be able to provide more support versus the run. The problem for the Titans is that Riemersma is one of the toughest tight ends in the league for a linebacker to cover, and his speed and athleticism should cause Bowden some problems in coverage.

  • Buffalo FB Sam Gash vs. Tennessee MLB Barry Wortham
    This matchup will dictate Buffalo's effectiveness on the ground. Gash, an All-Pro purely because of his blocking skills, is a vital component to a Bills running game that averages 127.5 yards per game. The Titans are extremely aggressive in their "46" defense, which means that the MLB position is relied on heavily versus the run game. With so much movement and blitzing in the Tennessee scheme, Wortham is counted on to shed a lot of isolation blocks, making the play between the tackles.

  • Tennessee WR Yancey Thigpen vs. Buffalo DC Antoine Winfield
    Thigpen's return after missing five games has diversified the offensive attack for the Titans. Teams are no longer able to stack as many as nine defenders on the line of scrimmage to spot RB Eddie George. The Bills are forced to respect Thigpen's speed and propensity to stretch the field, which makes his matchup with rookie CB Winfield so interesting. Winfield is an outstanding athlete who has withstood the challenge of being targeted by opposing passing games, but his pension for gambling is a concern for the Bills and it will likely mean that Buffalo defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell will use FS Kurt Schulz to play a lot of cloud coverage to Thigpen's side, giving Winfield a safety valve if he gets caught taking false steps.

    Buffalo will win if...
  • The secondary holds up in nickel and dime coverage. Thinned by injuries to DC Ken Irvin and dime safety Manny Martin, the Bills are in a predicament when the Titans decide to spread the field. Tennessee does not have a tremendously deep or potent receiving corps, but they get a lot of help from the H-Back position and are capable of forcing the Bills into a lot of nickel and dime situations. Buffalo is forced to move starting cornerback Antoine Winfield inside on the slot receiver on nickel downs, leaving reserve Donovan Greer to play the right cornerback position, an area of weakness that the Titans will try to exploit.

  • The offensive line creates more surge. The offensive gameplan is to run the ball early to slow down the tempo of the game and wear down an aggressive Titan front seven, but the Bills are themselves worn down up front, and generally are not a mauling-type unit. The offensive line needs to do a much better job on short-yardage situations if the Bills are going to be successful running the football with regularity.

  • WR Peerless Price is a playmaker. With Doug Flutie watching from the sideline and Andre Reed slowed by injury, the Bills do not have a consistent offensive playmaker to rely on, and will need some big plays from the complementary receiver position. The Titans are going to give Moulds a lot of respect, rolling coverage to his side and playing a lot of single-man coverage on Price. Price is going to be the key to the Bills offense, where he will need to give Rob Johnson a legitimate target opposite Moulds.

    Tennessee will win if...

  • The passing game provides a legitimate threat. Buffalo is ranked 1st in the league against the run, but will be playing with a secondary that is decimated by injury and is susceptible to the spread out attack. The Titans have been inconsistent throwing the ball, but Steve McNair is throwing the ball well and seems to be back in the rhythm of the offense.

  • They get pressure on QB Rob Johnson. The game plan takes an entirely different twist with Johnson starting over Doug Flutie, but the advantage goes to the Titans with a less mobile quarterback in the pocket to apply pressure on. The Titans have recorded 54 sacks on the season because of an aggressive "46" scheme, and should be able to throw off the timing of the Bills passing game if the approach remains as assertive.

  • CB Darnell Walker keeps WR Eric Moulds in check. Moulds is going to be a critical player to take out of the game for Tennessee because of his big-play ability. In what should be a tight, defensive contest between two teams that love to work the clock and battle for field position, a guy like Moulds can change the entire complexion of the game. Walker will get help in the deep third from the safety position, but it is the corner's responsibility to keep Moulds in front of him to avoid the big play.

    The War Room edge
    The Bills and Titans have very similar styles that revolve around solid running games and stout defensive units. The Bills have made a much-maligned decision to start QB Rob Johnson over long-time starter Doug Flutie, which should change the entire outlook of the game. The Bills are obviously going to look for Johnson to provide a spark to a passing attack that ranks 21st in the league, but the challenge is going to be a stiff one against an extremely aggressive Tennessee defense that has recorded 54 sacks on the season. Buffalo has had to trudge through one of the more difficult schedules in the league, while Tennessee has had the advantage of plying in an AFC Central division that is loaded with marginal opponents. The Bills are a veteran team that will come to play, but Tennessee will take advantage of the Bills inconsistency on offense in front of a home crowd that has established itself as one of the tougher venues to visit in the league. Tennessee wins the low-scoring contest with a brilliant defensive performance and a running game that gives their offense just enough to win the time of possession battle.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


  •   ESPN INSIDER
    Copyright 1995-99 ESPN/Starwave Partners d/b/a ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form. ESPN.com Privacy Policy. Use of this site signifies your agreement to the Terms of Service.