Friday, November 12
By Peter Gammons
Special to ESPN.com
LAGUNA NIGUEL, Calif. -- No one knows where it's going, how the 15 to 20 star players who are eligible for free agency at the end of next season all think they're going to get $12 to $20 million per season, how there are enough teams to pay that kind of money, and how revenues can progress at a similar rate as salaries.
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Update from the GM meetings
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Gord Ash spoke clearly, unemotionally, except when he explained that "We weren't invited" to the Dodger press conference announcing the Shawn Green-Raul Mondesi trade.
"This is reality," Toronto's general manager said. "We got a player that can help us compete next season, not years down the road. Shawn Green wasn't interested in playing in Toronto long-term, and even if we paid $84 million, that's $126 million Canadian, which is what we're taking in. We broke off negotiations with Carlos Delgado at noon (Monday) and will work to trade him. And we also will trade one of our veteran pitchers."
Asked if Alex Gonzalez might not be traded as well, Ash replied, "We haven't made up our minds."
"We have become an upscale Montreal," said one Jays official. How sad for a team that in 1992-93 won consecutive World Series championships -- with the highest payrolls in baseball.
Ash is talking to teams about Delgado and David Wells, and by spring training may trade Gonzalez to Atlanta. The Mets, Indians, Yankees and several other teams want Wells, but one of the best possibities is the veteran left-hander going to Colorado for Vinny Castilla and others. The Rockies then would trade Wells to Cleveland for Travis Fryman and some young players. Wells, a physical concern because of his back, still led the American League in innings pitched.
Ash has talked to several teams about Delgado, but while Boston is the most interested and would be willing to trade 100-RBI outfielder Troy O'Leary, one Jays official says, "Boston has nothing we're interested in except Jason Varitek, and they wouldn't do Varitek and O'Leary for Green."
Cleveland is talking extensively to San Diego about Andy Ashby, with 3B Russell Branyan, OF Alex Ramirez, OF Jacob Cruz and IF Jolbert Cabrera the bait. The Padres want to deal OF Reggie Sanders to Pittsburgh for RHP Francisco Cordova. But the Bucs, who thought Montreal was sending Rondell White to Colorado in a deal for Castilla, learned Monday that because the Expos ownership hasn't changed, they cannot take Castilla's salary and that a Cordova-White deal is possible.
Curious: the Mets asked San Diego about Quilvio Veras, leading to speculation that Edgardo Alfonzo would be included in a pitch for Ken Griffey Jr. The Mariners talked to eight teams about Griffey on Monday, but said none of the offers were even close to being acceptable.
Mets-Boston possibility: OF Jay Payton for C Scott Hatteberg. "We think John Olerud is going to end up in Seattle," says one Mets official, "so we have to be prepared to play Mike Piazza some at first."
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"I just couldn't be sure what's going to happen," Rangers general manager Doug Melvin says. "I was afraid there were so many of these guys like Juan Gonzalez, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green on the market that I thought I'd better act fast."
Melvin discussed contract parameters with the Gonzalez camp, and was told Larry Walker money (6 years, $75 million) won't do. He didn't put word out that Gonzalez was available, but he went to the one GM -- Detroit's Randy Smith -- who had approached him about Gonzalez during the season. The Tigers also happened to be one of the teams for whom Gonzalez didn't have a no-trade provision.
This year's free-agent crop is as shallow as a Pamela Anderson film festival. What is captivating during these general managers meetings is what will happen with all the November 2000 free agents. Throw in the likes of Manny Ramirez, Mike Mussina, Mike Hampton, Craig Biggio, Andy Pettitte and Mark McGwire after Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Griffey, Green and Delgado, and you have an embarrassment of riches. Then add in the specter of a 2002 labor stoppage.
You don't think they're thinking about that? "Several agents now want a lot of their signing bonuses handed out in 2002," says one GM. "They figure that way there'll be guaranteed income that season if there is a strike."
Melvin figured it out in trading Gonzalez as soon as possible. "I had a couple of other teams in mind (Arizona, for Travis Lee and Omar Daal; and Boston), but I didn't want to talk to many teams because I didn't want it to get out," he says. Melvin knew that the Tigers had some players that interested him and that Smith needed to get a marquee name for the Tigers' move to their new park.
Smith was on vacation in Hawaii, but Melvin tracked him down. They agreed that each would accept risk -- Gonzalez's contract, Justin Thompson's shoulder. The deal was done quickly. The verdict throughout the industry was that Melvin beat everyone to the punch and got as much on the dollar in this trade as anyone may get for any of the 2000 free agents.
In Francisco Cordero, Texas got a power reliever in the Armando Benitez mold, with so much arm strength that two NL clubs have him rated the best closer prospect in either league; now, with John Wetteland at the end for Jeff Zimmerman, Cordero, Tim Crabtree and lefty Mike Venafro, Texas can have one of the premier bullpens in the league. Thompson underwent an operation to clean up cartilage problems in his shoulder, but he should by OK by mid-April, and if he starts to use his legs and develops endurance, he is one of the better left-handed starting pitchers in a right-handed league.
In addition, Melvin now has the money to either re-sign Aaron Sele or go after Chuck Finley. Because the Rangers have some young lefties ready for the big leagues in Matt Perisho and Corey Lee, Melvin will also have at least one low-cost starter in the rotation.
Gabe Kapler was a disappointment in his rookie year, but as one AL exec points out, "He was coming out of Double-A, still hit 17 homers and was playing out of position in center. He's going to be a real good player." Understand, as star salaries increase and arbitration continually creates an artificial market level, how important Kapler and Ruben Mateo become. If Kapler becomes a very good player, over the first five years the Rangers have him, they figure he'll earn somewhere between $13 million and $15 million; Gonzalez wants $15 million per year. "Actually," says Melvin, "I figure we'll pay Mateo and Kapler combined over the next four years what Juan would cost for one."
On the trade front
As these meetings unfold, will Griffey, Rodriguez, Green, Delgado and Andy Ashby be traded? Red Sox GM Dan Duquette says, "I think there'll always be an active market for the top one and two percent of players."
Could Duquette find room in his budget for one of those two-percenters?
"We did for Bernie Williams," says Duquette, who offered Williams $91 million last offseason. "I think we could for someone else." Thus, when he gets to the Ritz, he plans to talk to Toronto GM Gord Ash about Green, as well as Dodgers GM Kevin Malone about Raul Mondesi and some of the players Malone would like to discuss.
Green in right field at Fenway? "I think we'd want some indication that he'd want to sign a long-term deal to play in Boston," said Duquette, indicating that he'd want to talk to Green's agent, Jeff Moorad. But at the All-Star game, Green said, "This is one place I've dreamed of playing. John Olerud and I always used to try to hit Ted Williams' red seat in BP. And I have family here." Green's uncle teaches at Harvard.
Duquette does know that Green is off the scale in terms of character, is the prototypical Fenway right fielder and a far better blend with Nomar Garciaparra than a wild swinger like Mondesi. What Duquette doesn't know is what it would take to get the 27-year-old who led the league in total bases, had 45 doubles, 42 homers, 134 runs and 123 RBI. Toronto no longer is interested in John Valentin. Perhaps Troy O'Leary if Shannon Stewart can play center? "We'll find out," says Duquette.
The Yankees know they'd love to get Green, or Ramirez, or Hampton, or someone of that ilk. But everyone who calls about first baseman Nick Johnson is told to forget it, because once Tino Martinez's contract is up at the end of next season, Johnson will be ready to step in, at approximately $1.2 million total for his first three seasons.
Those low early career salaries are why the Yankees don't want to trade shortstop Alfonso Soriano, who could play third or the outfield (he is playing center in winter ball), especially when Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera may be worth a combined $20 to $22 million in arbitration this winter. Those two will be costly because George Streinbrenner couldn't see as far down the road as Duquette did when he signed Garciaparra (although the best contract in baseball must be Orlando Hernandez -- one of the AL's three best starters -- at $1.65 million per year through 2001).
Speaking of Duquette, he will be very careful before trading prospects Dernell Stenson, Steve Lomasney, Wilton Veras or Adam Everett. "You have to have the talent at the bottom of the pay scale to afford the players at the top," says Cincinnati GM Jim Bowden, who is the one GM who has made it clear that he wants to get into the bidding for Griffey.
A-Rod and Junior
Alex Rodriguez reiterated to Gillick, Mariners president Chuck Armstrong and owner Howard Lincoln that he wants to stay the last year, play out the contract and then leave as a free agent. But is that in the Mariners' best interest? Are they better off trading Griffey and A-Rod now, using the cash for John Olerud and some other players and moving on? There apparently is a huge market for A-Rod, with the Mets, Braves, Dodgers and many others; and A-Rod can't veto a trade. Griffey can. Now, Cincinnati makes a lot of sense because they're building a new park, it's Griffey's hometown, there are easy Cincinnati-Orlando flights and his father could well be the manager in 2001, no matter where Junior is playing, because Senior is riding the buses right now in Puerto Rico, managing Santurce.
Would Bowden give up pitchers Scott Williamson and Brett Tomko as well as either Mike Cameron or Dmitri Young and kid shortstop Travis Dawkins, who wowed Gillick on the Pan Am team? He might. "That," says one National League GM, "is the best deal Pat might get for Griffey."
The Braves' baseball people reportedly prefer A-Rod, but TBS may want Junior chasing Hank five nights a week in prime time (maybe then they'll do the right thing and re-name the ballpark Aaron Field). People speculate about Andruw Jones, Kevin Millwood and a couple of kids between Kevin McGlinchy, Bruce Chen, George Lombard, Jason Marquis and Luis Rivera. But the Braves don't want to discuss Millwood, not with the age of their great troika. They don't want to discuss McGlinchy because they're not certain of John Rocker's long-term stability. "Meanwhile," says Colorado GM Dan O'Dowd, "we're going to hear a lot of wild, silly rumors."
Maybe Toronto can pawn Pat Hentgen off on Detroit. Maybe Cleveland will swap Ramirez for Griffey. Or, very unlikely, maybe the Yanks will listen when Gillick offers Griffey and others for Williams and others
It has been widely thought that the Padres will trade Ashby this week. Cleveland is the most likely destination, in a multi-player deal that would send Ashby and reliever Dan Miceli to the Indians for third-base slugger Russ Branyan, Jaret Wright and a third player, either outfielder Alex Ramirez or a pitching prospect like Tim Drew or J.J. Sabathia. However, the Padres want to talk to the Red Sox (they love Dernell Stenson and Brian Rose) and the Yankees (Ashby has a no-trade clause to the Yankees, but might waive it to win). The Phillies have interest, but may not match on players and Ashby likely won't waive his no-trade clause to go there. Detroit, too, has interest, and he would waive his no-trade to the Tigers.
The Padres had wanted to trade catcher Ben Davis (and catcher Wiki Gonzalez) to Arizona for Travis Lee, but there's been a lot of feedback in the San Diego area from females who think Davis is the next area heartthrob.
This is a song that will not end until December 2000. But for the next month, there'll be a lot of people in New York dreaming of Junior and A-Rod, folks in Boston and L.A. dreaming of Green in right field, and probably some general managers wishing they'd been ahead of the pack like Doug Melvin.
Notes, rumors and other stuff
Dan O'Dowd is trying to be active in Colorado, but his deals may take time. Montreal, with new ownership, has interest in Vinny Castilla in a big deal involving Rondell White, Chris Widger and others. The Pirates have talked to the Expos about either Francisco Cordova or Jason Schmidt for White, while the Padres (Reggie Sanders) and Phillies (Ron Gant) are among the others lined up for one of those Pittsburgh pitchers. ... The Mets and Cardinals are among those interested in Darryl Kile. ... Angels GM Bill Stoneman will move a couple of outfielders, and has talked to the Mets about Jim Edmonds. But he may not be able to keep Finley. The Indians would like to get Finley and Ashby done quickly. ... One of the more intriguing teams to talk about this week is Tampa Bay, with Rolando Arrojo, Wilson Alvarez and Roberto Hernandez on the market. ... Finally, this week, we should find out if indeed George Steinbrenner promised The Brothers Hendricks a $15 million annual extension for Roger Clemens if Roger promises to wear a Yankee cap into the Hall of Fame.
On the last Friday of October, the Reds lost their 45-homer cleanup hitter, Greg Vaughn. Less than 24 hours later, Bowden had Dante Bichette. "In many ways, he makes our lineup better than it was with Greg because with Barry Larkin, Sean Casey, Bichette and Dmitri Young, we have four contact, production hitters," says Bowden. Concern: Over the six years in Colorado, Bichette's home/road numbers are .360/.268, 136/65 homers, 537/289 RBI.
The trade of Jeffrey Hammonds reminded one former Orioles employee that baseball gurus Peter and John Angelos killed a Pat Gillick deal that would have sent Hammonds to Toronto for Shawn Green.
None of the managerial hirings were a surprise, except perhaps Mike Hargrove in Baltimore. He was accused of burnout in Cleveland, but in his defense, he was expected to win every year from 1995 through 1999, had no regular-season, pennant-race competition to prepare for the postseason and had some interesting personalities on the Indians, not to mention some questionable pitching.
The strain between Hargrove and the front office was well known in Cleveland. But the strain between everyone in Baltimore has been well known, and there are some that feel this is a burned-out team. Syd Thrift, the baseball man in the Angelos College of GMs, is here in California trying to make some deals -- he is a very creative man -- and is trying to find the Orioles a center fielder. They have let it be known that they would love for someone to take Albert Belle. Thus far, blank stares.
The work of Leonard Coleman, Joe Morgan, Frank Robinson and others to mobilize the pressing of African-American hires was admirable and effective (Baylor is only the second minority manager to be fired and re-hired). But as teams passed over Diamondbacks coach Carlos Tosca, a Jim Leyland aide and very successful minor league manager, for available jobs and Mets assistant GM Omar Minaya kept failing to get past the first round of interviews, baseball is clearly way behind when it comes to Hispanics.
There are more Hispanics in the game than African-Americans, and their place at the top of the talent ladder is obvious, yet they have no one to trumpet their cause the way Coleman did. Although it should be noted that, if for some reason, people really care about background, Davey Lopes is a Cape Verdian Indian. He's also one of the game's smartest people, and his hiring is long overdue.
Before you start calling your town's talk shows asking for Donovan Osborne, the one stat you want to know is that in his career he has been active 518 days, on the disabled list for 594 days.
The Orioles scouting department wanted to retain their respected Florida scout. The Angelos family ordered him fired. The scout is Jeff Wren, Frank's brother.
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