 |
 |
|
| | Friday, November 12 | |||||||||
Special to ESPN.com | ||||||||||
Three words of advice to general managers scanning the current crop of free agents:
Save your money.
Upside: Vaughn has 95 homers in the last two seasons, more than anybody except Griffey, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. He could provide some team with an instant offensive boost, and in the right park, could join Sosa and McGwire in the exclusive 60-homer club. Downside: Vaughn has a habit of alternating good years with bad. Check his batting averages from the last five seasons, beginning with 1995: .224, .260, .216, .272 and .245. He also has difficulty making contact at times -- his 132 strikeouts in 1999 represented a career high. Vaughn is an average outfielder at best, and his knees can't take the pounding that comes from playing on turf. Possible landing spots: Returning to Cincinnati is out; the Reds dealt for Bichette to serve as Vaughn's replacement. Maybe the Rockies will want a new thumper for left field. 2. Aaron Sele Upside: In the last two seasons, Sele has earned 37 wins, a figure matched only by Jose Lima and Greg Maddux and topped only by Pedro Martinez (42). He's developed a sharper break to his curveball, and added a cut fastball to bore in on lefty hitters. Downside: Sele's win total has been greatly inflated by the run support he received from Ranger teammates. After all, his ERAs in the last two seasons were 4.23 and 4.79, hardly horrible by today's standards, but not No. 1 starter numbers, either. Possible landing spots: Seattle. The Mariners are looking for a starter to join Jamie Moyer and Freddy Garcia, and Sele is from and still spends the offseason in the state of Washington. Trading Gonzalez may have cleared room for the Rangers to re-sign Sele as well.
Upside: Cone once again showed his mettle with a superb postseason, and while his regular-season victory total of 12 was his second-lowest in a healthy season, his ERA of 3.44 was second in the AL to Martinez. Downside Cone turns 37 in January, and was hard to spot in the second half. By September, he was making just one start per week out of deference to a balky right shoulder that requires regular acupuncture treatment. Possible landing spots: New York Yankees. Cone would like a two-year deal, while the Yankees are naturally reluctant to grant him more than a season given physical concerns. But Cone loves pitching for the Yankees, and George Steinbrenner loves having him, so some accommodation will be made. The Mets will also make a push. 4. John Olerud Upside: Olerud has successfully overcome whatever caused him to mysteriously slump in his last two seasons in Toronto. He dropped 56 points in batting average from last season to this (.354 in 1998, .298 in 1999), but topped 90 RBI for the third straight season and has an excellent on-base percentage. He's an excellent defensive first baseman, and at 31, would seem to have plenty of productive seasons left. Downside: Olerud doesn't hit for the kind of power usually associated with first basemen. He hit 19 homers this season, and has never hit more than 24 in a season in his 10-year career. Possible landing spots: Mets, Mariners. Olerud wouldn't mind returning to the Mets, who have the nucleus in place to contend for several years. But like Sele, he's from the Seattle suburbs, where his parents live and have Mariner season tickets. He enjoys a close relationship with new Seattle GM Pat Gillick, who drafted and signed him in Toronto. 5. Chuck Finley Upside: Finley was one of just two American League pitchers to post 200 strikeouts this season, and no one needs to be reminded of how valuable left-handed pitching is. Finley is, in fact, the second-winningest active lefty pitcher in the game. He's posted double figures in wins for the last seven seasons and in 10 of the last 11 seasons. Downside: Finley hasn't won 15 games since 1996 and has posted ERAs in excess of 4.00 in five of the last six seasons. He turns 37 later this month. Possible landing spots: Angels, Rangers. Finley would like to stay in Southern California and would probably accept less to do so. Texas was interested because of their all-righty rotation, but that was before they obtained Justin Thompson in the Gonzalez deal. 6. David Nilsson Upside: The left-handed hitting Nilsson set a career high with 21 homers this season and hit .309, his highest average since 1996. He also returned to catching after spending the last few seasons in the outfield and first base, proving how versatile he can be. Downside: There's persistent talk that Nilsson will take most of next year off to participate in the Olympics in his native Australia, which take place in September. Nilsson is taking part in the Intercontinental Cup in Sydney, a sign that he may be leaning toward Olympics play. Nilsson missed the last five weeks of the season with a broken thumb. Possible landing spots: Boston. The Red Sox need another left-handed bat and could use someone to play first regularly. 7. Kenny Rogers Upside: A left-handed pitcher in a thin pitching market, Rogers will have his suitors. Over the last five years, he's posted a 65-31 record and was 5-1 down the stretch for the Mets in their wild playoff chase. Downside: His poor pitching in the postseason won't shake the rap that Rogers isn't a big-game pitcher. Many believe he pitches best for a team out of contention and out of the spotlight. Possible landing spots: Rangers, Mets, Devil Rays. Rogers would like to be closer to his home in Florida, but it's unclear whether the Devil Rays have room on the payroll. A return to one of his former teams -- the Mets or Rangers -- looks like a good bet. 8. Juan Guzman Upside: Guzman had his best year since 1996 as he went 11-12 with a fine 3.74 ERA. He still throws hard. If healthy, he can still be effective. Downside: He's wild at times and wildly inconsistent from year-to-year. He won the AL ERA title in '96 after being awful in '95. He was hurt in '97 and then pitched OK the past two years. Possible landing spots: Reds, Orioles, Rangers -- any contending team looking for a decent starter. But what will asking price be? 9. Todd Zeile Upside: Zeile is a consistent run producer, with 90 or better RBI in each of his last four seasons and has made himself into a decent third baseman. Downside: There's not much of a market for third basemen, as Zeile may find out. Possible landing spots: Texas. The Rangers would like to retain him. Zeile had designs on playing in Southern California, but the Dodgers and Angels are set at third, and the Padres told him they couldn't afford him. 10. Harold Baines Upside: Baines is seemingly ageless, hitting .312, the second-highest batting average of his 20-year career. His 103 RBI were the most for him since 1985, and he hit lefties (.302) almost as well as he hit right-handers (.315). Downside: Baines will be 41 before Opening Day, and he can't go on forever. He's limited to DH, which in turn limits the number of teams for whom he could play. Possible landing spots: Baltimore. Where else. Baines always seems to find his way back to his native Maryland. Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal-Bulletin covers the American League for ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Baseball's free agents
 | |||||||||
