In today's NHL, where coaching and scouting techniques have never been better, where talent is spread over 30 teams, where stick obstruction is taught and tolerated and where goalie equipment gets bigger by the second, the key to success is a good goaltender.

To see that fact, you need only look at the recently completed Stanley Cup final series between the Devils and Mighty Ducks. The Devils, led by future Hall of Famer stopper Martin Brodeur, outlasted the upstart Ducks, who came within one win of completing an amazing Cup run because of goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere.

	Rick DiPietro is still the only goalie to be drafted with the No. 1 overall pick.

With the ever-increasing importance of goaltending, teams are now spending top draft picks on goaltenders. In 2000, the Islanders made Rick DiPietro the first goalie ever selected with the top overall pick since the league began the amateur draft in 1969.

Of course, the Isles' decision was a bit strange, considering they had used the fourth pick in the 1997 draft to select Roberto Luongo. Inexplicably unhappy with Luongo, GM Mike Milbury dealt him (and late-blooming forward Olli Jokinen) to the Panthers for forwards Mark Parrish and Oleg Kvasha. Then he made history by selecting DiPietro. In the process, Milbury passed on Dany Heatley and Marian Gaborik, who both have become dynamic young stars in Atlanta and Minnesota, respectively.

DiPietro, while extremely successful at the AHL level, has yet to make an impact on Long Island. One way or another, that will change this season. DiPietro is expected to challenge veteran Garth Snow for the starting job. If he shines, Milbury looks a much smarter. If he doesn't …

Last year the Thrashers selected Finnish stopper Kari Lehtonen with the second overall pick. He signed a contract with the club, but could spend a season in AHL before making the jump to the top league.

This season, another goaltender is creating quite a stir at the draft. Cape Breton (QMJHL) stopper Marc-Andre Fleury caught the attention of NHL scouts with a stunning performance for Team Canada at the World Junior Championships in Halifax. The skinny Quebec native was cool under fire during the tense tournament.

Several teams would love to draft Fleury, especially because he stands head and shoulders about his goaltending draftmates. The Panthers, who currently have the No. 1 pick, aren't one of those teams. They still have Luongo, who has become one of the game's top young goalkeepers.

Accordingly, Panthers GM Rick Dudley has been busy listening to offers for the pick.

"I'm a pretty popular guy this week," said Dudley, who drove from South Florida to Nashville last weekend, getting to the draft site early.

Being popular during draft week is nothing new to Dudley. In 1999, as Lightning GM, Dudley controlled the top pick. Then, last season, just weeks after being hired by the Panthers, Dudley found himself in the same situation. On both occasions, he traded the pick.

"In '99, we couldn't get a consensus of who would be the top pick," Dudley said. "Last year, we traded back a couple of spots, picked up some assets and still got the players we wanted."

While Dudley figures to move the top pick again this year, he's keeping his cards close to his vest.

"We're getting calls about the pick," Dudley says. "I think that will intensify as we get closer to draft day. If we don't trade the pick, we know who'll pick."

If teams are indeed trying to trade up to get their pads on Fleury, you have to wonder if they'll have the patience to let him develop at a proper pace. After all, goaltenders seem to need more time to hit their stride at the NHL level. In fact, this year's goaltending sensation, Giguere, passed through two organizations (Hurricanes and Flames) before finding his way with the Ducks. And the Islanders didn't take long to sour on Luongo. Will they stick with DiPietro if he struggles during the next couple of seasons?

A quick check of history tells us that many goaltenders came out of nowhere to become NHL stars. Recently retired Patrick Roy was selected 51st overall in 1984. The Leafs' Ed Belfour and the Wings' Curtis Joseph weren't even picked in the draft, signing later as free agents.

Since 1990, of the goaltenders selected in the first round, Brodeur (20th, 1990), Giguere (13th, '95), Jocelyn Thibault (10th, '93), Dan Cloutier (26th, '94), Martin Biron (16th, '95), Marc Denis (25th, '95) and Luongo have become starters. Of those, Brodeur and Biron are the only goalies to have stayed with the club that drafted them.

On the flip side, other first rounders like Trevor Kidd (11th, '90), Eric Fichaud (16th, '94), Brian Boucher (22nd, '95), Mika Noronen (21st, '97) and Jamie Storr (7th, '94) have struggled to find their way in the league. Craig Hillier, selected with the 23rd pick in the '96 draft by the Penguins, never played a game with Pittsburgh.

This year, if Fleury does go with the first pick, he'll find himself at the head of a very deep draft class.

"It's about as good a class as I've seen," Dudley said. "But, of course, the proof is in the pudding. You never really know until years later. The class of 1993 probably looks a lot better now than it did at the time."

Here's an early peek at how things could turn out. Remember that things are changing by the minute in the hours leading up to Saturday's draft. We'll look to update our thoughts again before draft day:

1. Florida Panthers: If they use the pick, they'll take Peterborough center Eric Staal. He fits their need -- a North American forward with size and skill. However, it's almost a certainty that the Panthers will trade this pick. Several clubs are interested in Fleury. And a few other want to deal up to get Staal. The only way to insure getting either player is to deal with the Panthers. Dudley says he can take on payroll to get a proven NHL commodity for the pick. But Dudley insists it will have to be the right kind of player (someone who can contribute and lead a young group).

2. Carolina Hurricanes: If the Panthers keep the pick, 'Canes GM Jim Rutherford will have an interesting decision to make: Does he take a goalie with his first pick for the second year in a row? Last season, he took Red Deer stopper Cam Ward with the 25th pick. It says here that they don't bite. Instead, they hope Staal falls to No. 2. If he's gone, they will take Oshawa pivot Nathan Horton or Portland D-man Braydon Coburn.

3. Pittsburgh Penguins: The Pens would love to jump into the top spot to ensure getting Fleury. Still, if the Panthers or the 'Canes don't trade their picks, the Penguins could get their goalie at No. 3. If Fleury is gone, Staal or Horton will still be on the board. At that point, they'll select the remaining forward. Either player would be a boost for this troubled franchise.

4. Columbus Blue Jackets: Their biggest need remains on defense. With that in mind, they'll select Coburn if he's still on the board. If not, they'll choose between American-born Ryan Suter (son of 1980 U.S. Olympian Bob Suter and nephew of longtime NHLer Gary Suter) and Red Deer D-man Dion Phaneuf. If they want a forward, they might tap Calgary C Ryan Getzlaf.

5. Buffalo Sabres: After a season on the financial brink, the Sabres are back in business. They need some scoring help. With that in mind, they'll take University of Minnesota sniper Thomas Vanek, who'll be the highest Austrian-born player ever taken in the draft.

6. San Jose Sharks: Set in goal and on the blue line, the Sharks need help up front. They'll choose between Russian right wing Nikolai Zherdev, Czech right wing Milan Michalek or Belarussian winger Andrei Kostitsyn. It says here that they will take Zherdev.

7. Nashville Predators: GM David Poile needs help on defense. He'd be thrilled if Phaneuf were on the board. He will be. That said, there are some at his draft table who will argue for Guelph forward Dustin Brown or Vanek, if he's still on the board.

8. Atlanta Thrashers: Like recent expansion brethren Nashville, Atlanta would like to grab a defenseman. If Coburn, Phaneuf or Suter remains on the board (which might not be the case), GM Don Waddell will run to the podium to make his selection. If not, he could choose Michalek or trade back and grab Sherbrooke D-man Richard Stehlik. There are some in Atlanta who will lobby Waddell to pick North Dakota center Zach Parise.

9. Calgary Flames: GM/coach Darryl Sutter says he would like to draft a Canadian kid. We believe he will. He'll grab Getzlaf over some objections at his draft table. If he's not there, he could reach up and grab Kitchener center Mike Richards.

10. Montreal Canadiens: New GM Bob Gainey would love to jump into the top spot to grab Staal. Gainey knows the value of a big center. And he's well connected to Staal's junior team in Peterborough. If he can't make that move, he will look to Kostitsyn or Russian left wing Konstantin Glazachev.

11. Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers have always been about size and toughness. GM Bob Clarke, who has another first-round pick (24th), will explore the possibility of moving up for Fleury or a defenseman. If he stays put, it would be in character for them to select 6-foot-4, 200-pound Dartmouth College right wing Hugh Jessiman.

12. New York Rangers: Glen Sather's team could use a top defenseman. But the big three (Coburn, Suter and Phaneuf) could be gone by the time Sather steps to the podium. There will be, however, several talented forwards left on the board. He'd get excellent value selecting Parise, the son of ex-NHLer J.P. Parise. Some scouts might be turned off by Parise's size (5-11, 186), but this kid can play. He's going to be a good NHL player.

13. Los Angeles Kings: The first of their three first-round picks, the Kings are another team that could be thinking about a move up the draft ladder for Fleury. If they stay put, they'll be looking for a forward after spending last year's first-round pick on Russian D-man Denis Grebeskkov. With that in mind, they'll select Brown, who was ranked No. 2 overall among North American skaters by the league's Central Scouting Bureau.

14. Chicago Blackhawks: GM Mike Smith loves European players, especially Russians. So if Kostitsyn or Glazachev somehow remain on the board, Smith will be quick to grab either player. In the more likely event that both players are gone, Smith might turn his eyes back to North America for Kingston right wing Anthony Stewart. The 6-1, 240-pound winger is a big man with skill.

15. New York Islanders: It's never easy to predict what GM Mike Milbury will do at the draft. Common sense says they need a scoring winger. That means either Moncton right wing Steve Bernier or University of Michigan left wing Jeff Tambellini, the son of ex-Islander Steve Tambellini. Bernier is bigger, while Tambellini is quicker. It's your call, Mike.

16. Boston Bruins: Did you know that all seven of the Bruins' selections in last year's draft were European? GM Mike O'Connell would like to end that run by jumping up to get Fleury. In lieu of that, the B's could select one of three centers: Ohio State's Ryan Kesler, Rimouski's Marc-Antoine Pouliot or Sault Ste. Marie's Jeff Carter. The hard-working Kesler is the most likely to succeed at the NHL level.

17. Edmonton Oilers: Kesler would be a good fit in Edmonton, too. The Oilers, who have a nice group of young skill players, could use some size and grit. If Jessiman is still on the board, GM Kevin Lowe will be hard-pressed to pass.

18. Washington Capitals: The Capitals haven't enjoyed much success at the draft in the last decade. So they probably don't have the stomach to take a shot at talented, but troubled Mississauga center Patrick O'Sullivan. So, instead, they'll likely select Pouliot or Carter.

19. Anaheim Mighty Ducks: GM Bryan Murray would like to add a quality D-man. He would get excellent value by selecting St. Michael's defenseman Kevin Klein, who brings smarts, skill and toughness to the position.

20. Minnesota Wild: The Wild like smart players. So they'll grab either Klein or Richards, who might be the steal of the draft. One scout compared Richards to a young Doug Gilmour. If neither are available, they could reach for speedy Quebec center Josh Hennessy.

21. San Jose Sharks: First-year GM Doug Wilson takes his second swipe in the first round with the pick acquired from the Leafs in the Owen Nolan trade. Again, the Sharks need add offensive depth. If Bernier or Tambellini remains on the board, Wilson will gladly show them the way to San Jose.

22. New Jersey Devils: It's always interesting to see who GM Lou Lamoriello and scouting guru David Conte decide to select. Kesler and Richards seem like Devils-type players, but both could be gone. If that's the case, the Devils might turn to Sarnia pivot Dan Fritsche.

23. Vancouver Canucks: It would make sense for the Canucks to make a call to the Panthers about the top pick. After all, Fleury would be a nice addition to their roster. If they don't move in that direction, they could add talented Swedish forward Robert Nilsson, the son of former Flames star Kent Nilsson. Of course, if Tambellini remains on the board, the club could choose to select the son of their VP of player personnel, Steve Tambellini.

24. Philadelphia Flyers: If the Flyers don't win the chase for Fleury, they could use their second first-round pick to select goalie Ryan Munce. The Sarnia stopper impressed scouts with his gold-medal performance at the under-18 championships in Russia in April. He projects as a No. 1 goaltender at the NHL level.

25. Tampa Bay Lightning: GM Jay Feaster needs to get some defensive help in the draft. He can choose between North Americans Mark Stuart and Brent Seabrook and Euros Michal Barinka and Dimitri Kosmachev. Of the four D-men, Stuart could be the best fit.

26. Los Angeles Kings: If they don't bundle their first-round picks in a package deal, they'll be in a position to take a chance. Enter O'Sullivan, who becomes a bargain at No. 26. In L.A., he'll be far away from his abusive father. Personal issues aside, scouts agree that he has the talent to be an offensive presence in the NHL. A high-risk, high-reward pick.

27. Los Angeles Kings: After selecting a pair of forwards with their first two first-round picks, they'll look to the back line. GM Dave Taylor will take Seabrook if he's available.

28. Dallas Stars: It's almost a lock that the Stars are going to be picking much higher on the draft board. But they still could be picking here, too. It's always difficult to read Tim Bernhardt, the director of amateur scouting, who is among the best in the business. If they're looking for a big forward, they might want to take a chance on Brandon right wing Eric Fehr. The 6-3 forward made nice progress during his second junior season.

29. Ottawa Senators: The Senators have built their team through shrewd drafting. This year GM John Muckler has talked about trading back into the second round. If he doesn't, they could reach for Swiss defenseman Tim Ramholt.

30. St. Louis Blues: Do the Blues have the guts to take a smaller forward like Boston College's Patrick Eaves or Ottawa's Corey Locke? If they do, they might be getting a pretty good hockey player. The 5-8 Locke led the OHL with 151 points in 66 games. But is Locke good enough to be a No. 2 center at the NHL level? They could also opt for tough Brandon center Ryan Stone or D-man Nathan Paetsch, who re-enters the draft after failing to come to an agreement with the Caps. He was selected with the 58th pick in the 2001 draft.

E.J. Hradek covers hockey for ESPN The Magazine. E-mail him at ej.hradek@espnmag.com.