It's often been described as nothing more than a crapshoot, as if Frank, Dino and Sammy were at the Sands tables in Vegas in the wee small hours of sometime in the early '60s, putting down all their chips on one number, one hand, one roll.
|  | | The Devils found their 2000-01 regular-season and playoff leading scorer -- Patrik Elias -- at 51 in the 1994 draft. |
Yes, the NHL's entry draft is, in the opinion of many, nothing more than a bet, a lottery, a very expensive, extremely risky stab in the dark. David Conte believes that comparison is a cop-out.
"It's not about gambling," protests the Devils' director of scouting. "It's about research and development. At least that's the way I look at it. You do the proper research, select the player and then you develop him.
"One without the other is useless. Together, though, they can produce you a pretty good asset."
Whatever method Conte and his scouting staff follow, it works. Through the 1990s, Jersey has been among the most successful franchises in selecting players, grooming them, and then watching them step into the NHL and not only subsist, but contribute. They've come up aces at the top and middle ends -- Scott Niedermayer, third overall in '91; Patrik Elias, 51st in '94; Scott Gomez, 27th in '98; Petr Sykora, 18th in '95; Martin Brodeur, 20th in '90; Jay Pandolfo, 32nd in '93; and Sergei Brylin, 42nd in '92 -- where it's often easy to err.
There are certainly more hits than misses in the selecting game these days, what with 30 teams involved and each club putting more and more time, effort and money into scouting draftable players. But for every Sergei Gonchar, there's an Alexandre Volchkov. For each Ryan Smyth, a Jason Bonsignore. For instance, the year Jersey scooped up Brodeur, the likes of Scott Scissons, John Slaney, Drake Berehowsky, Michael Stewart, Mark Greig and Shawn Antoski were snapped up before him. All-world disappointment Pat Falloon was taken in front of Niedermayer the next summer. Brad Church, Jeff Ware, Terry Ryan, Aki Berg, Steve Kelly and Teemu Riihjarvi were somehow deemed better bets than Sykora. Good management or good fortune? Conte views it as a little bit of both. Scouting is now big business. A good bird-dog is as valuable as a promising centerman. Jersey, for instance, has 15 full- and part-time people on its amateur scouting staff and three pro scouts.
Oh, the Devils have suffered through their share of duds in the '90s -- witness Lance Ward -- but even some of the draft picks they eventually wound up trading (Jason Smith, Bill Guerin, Brendan Shanahan, Denis Pederson) are good to great pros.
"I don't think we're smarter or have done a better job than anyone else, necessarily," argues Conte. "We're very lucky in that our management has given us the resources to allow us to make good selections. But drafting is such an unlevel playing field. With the resources the St. Louis Blues have had the last few years, (many of their top picks were dealt away during the Mike Keenan era) they've done a tremendous job. And I don't mean to downgrade anyone here, but Colorado has had 26 or 27 first-round picks, 12 in the top 5. So their chances of drafting well should be better.
"Some teams have more money to play with, and that makes a difference, too. There are so many mitigating factors involved in having what is perceived as a good draft or a bad one.
And, of course, there's nothing on this earth easier to second-guess than a poor draft pick.
"Tell me about it," he sighs.
Indeed, the only club franchise able to rival the Devils at the draft table in the last decade in terms of depth and quality is the Avalanche/Nordiques -- no surprise, then, that they met in this year's Stanley Cup finale. The Avs snared Alex Tanguay and Martin Skoula in '98, Chris Drury (72nd overall) and Milan Hejduk (87th) in '94. So deep in drafts and talent were the Avs that they were able to peddle defenseman Robyn Regehr to the Flames in the Theo Fleury deal, a 2000 first-rounder as part of the package to land Ray Bourque, and Adam Deadmarsh, 1993's 14th overall selection, to finalize the Rob Blake acquisition.
Drafting, then, is not solely about what you get, but what you get that others might want.
The good teams, the contenders, might fill holes or add that missing piece of the puzzle via trade or free agency, but they build a foundation through the draft.
|
“ |
Look, no one is saying drafting an 18-year-old hockey player is an exact science. That would be ludicrous. Once you get past the top five guys a lot of years, you're left with player A or B as a choice when your turn rolls around. A might turn out to be great, B awful. And there doesn't seem to be much difference between them in that short period of time at the table when you have to make a selection. ” |
|
|
— David Conte, New Jersey's director of scouting |
On the other end of the spectrum, for example, the Tampa Bay Lightning have only one of their six top 10 picks still on their roster -- captain Vincent Lecavalier. Jason Wiemer, Chris Gratton, Roman Hamrlik and Daymond Langkow are long gone. The lamentable N.Y. Islanders have shipped off most of their high picks -- such as Darius Kasparaitis, Todd Bertuzzi, Roberto Luongo, Eric Brewer and Wade Redden -- and watched as they achieved bigger and better things with other clubs.
The game used to be all about drafting and trading. Now it's about drafting, trading and spending.
This season, the Devils hold two first-round spots, Nos. 24 and 28. There will be no Ilja Kovalchuks or Jason Spezzas or Stephen Weisses around when it comes time for them to select. But going off the immediate past, expect David Conte and his group to unearth a gem out of a hidden rock formation someplace.
That is their stock in trade.
"When you're on top," muses Conte, "life is good. And 'at the top' means just that. At the end of the day in our business, there's only one winner -- the organization that takes home the Stanley Cup.
"The rest -- including us, now -- are fighting to get there."
Where 30 teams begin building either to reach the top or put up one helluva fight to stay there is the entry draft, Saturday in Sunrise, Fla.
So let the others roll the dice, spin the roulette wheel. Conte and the Devils will rely on the old research and development theory.
"Look, no one is saying drafting an 18-year-old hockey player is an exact science. That would be ludicrous. Once you get past the top five guys a lot of years, you're left with player A or B as a choice when your turn rolls around. A might turn out to be great, B awful. And there doesn't seem to be much difference between them in that short period of time at the table when you have to make a selection.
"But that's where the research end of it comes in.
"It's not where they're rated now but how they're eventually rated as pros that makes the difference."
George Johnson covers the NHL for the Calgary Herald and is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.
|
|
|
