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Thursday, November 14
 
Plenty on the line when Raiders host Patriots

By Joe Theismann
Special to ESPN.com

Determining the importance of Sunday night's game (ESPN, 8:30 ET) between the Oakland Raiders and the New England Patriots goes well beyond their last meeting.

Sure, the defending champion Patriots defeated the Raiders in the AFC divisional playoffs during a snowstorm, and people will bring up the controversial tuck rule regarding Tom Brady's near-fumble. But there is even greater significance when you look at their respective divisions.

Theismann's Keys
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Offense: More on the ground -- The Patriots need some semblance of a running game to give Brady a chance to throw. Last week Smith ran only 10 times, while he had 29 carries the week before. Against Oakland, the number should be somewhere in between.
Defense: Pressure Gannon -- Denver was unable to put pressure on Gannon, who sat in the pocket and picked the Broncos apart, completing 35 of 38 passes. The Raiders' offensive line did a great job, looking like five buildings in front of Gannon. Players such as Richard Seymour and Willie McGinest must get after Gannon or he could do the same thing to them.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
Offense: More Garner -- The Raiders have to run the football more than they did against Denver, when Garner carried only five times for two yards. Everybody got touches against Denver. And when Gannon touches it, everything is fine. But Garner needs to be more involved. The Raiders won't be able to line up each week and throw the ball the way they did against Denver.
Defense: No big plays allowed -- Charles Woodson may have to line up against David Patten, who has been the Patriots' big-play guy. Tackling will be so important for the Raiders' secondary. They have done a better job, but it hasn't been a strong point. Brady will throw short and let his players run, so the Raiders need to get players on the ground once they catch the ball.

The Patriots are in a three-way tie for the AFC East lead, while the Raiders are one game behind Denver and San Diego in the AFC West. Yet their clustered divisions will probably send a division winner and a wild-card team to the playoffs.

Both teams feel good about themselves after successfully emerging from four-game losing streaks. New England has now won two straight, and Oakland ended its losing ways with a big 34-10 win over Denver on Monday night. The Patriots' slump, however, was harder to explain than the Raiders' because New England hadn't suffered the injuries Oakland had.

What gets forgotten about the Raiders is that they lost two games in overtime during their four-game skid. They didn't slip too far after their 4-0 start and never lost in a blowout. Oakland was more consistent than the Patriots, who played poorly, suffered from a case of bad tackling and got trounced a few times.

When they were losing, the two teams were searching for an identity. What the Patriots and the Raiders found was that they need to throw the ball short and control the clock with the short passing game. Their offenses are like the run-and-shoot without much of the "run" part.

All the Patriots and the Raiders like to do is put the ball in the air. In fact, the over-under for the game could be 100 passes. Oakland has proven it will throw 60 passes if necessary, and New England threw 55 times last week against Chicago.

The two teams are impressive in their ability to throw the ball short because it's not as easy as one might think. To complete a pass under 10 yards, Brady and Rich Gannon have to throw between defensive linemen and around and over helmets, hands and shoulders.

To a degree, the only similarity between the two teams is the short passing game. Otherwise, the Raiders and the Patriots are quite different. The Raiders have a massive offensive line; the Patriots don't. Charlie Garner is an explosive running back; Antowain Smith is not. The Patriots' receivers are diminutive and quick and can get down the field; the Raiders' receivers are older and bigger and not as quick. The Raiders, though, have a powerhouse in Jerry Porter that the Patriots don't have.

No two NFL quarterbacks have attempted more passes than Gannon (380) and Brady (370) this season. After his amazing 89.5 percent completion rate on Monday night, Gannon is completing 70 percent of his passes, while Brady has completed 65.7 percent. Gannon could hold clinics on where receivers are on the field, and Brady is darn close. But to think Sunday's game will just be an air show could be a misconception.

The Raiders, with their offensive line and New England's problems stopping the run, should feel confident they can run the ball effectively. Even though the Raiders controlled the Monday night game with their passing, the best way to keep New England's offense off the field is to run the ball against the Patriots' 27th-ranked run defense.

Since Oakland has a greater ability to run the ball than New England does, Garner should play a big part. And if Smith can run, that would be a huge plus for the Patriots. They won't necessarily be the forgotten men on Sunday night.

Defensively, though, both teams must go with a matchup man-to-man scheme underneath to try and stop the short passing game. Remember, the defensive backs are allowed to ride the receivers and chuck them within five yards. But then there will be a tremendous amount of pressure placed on the safeties playing the deep middle portion of the field.

Despite the potential of both offenses to score points, I don't necessarily expect a high-scoring game. I'm more interested in how both teams start the game. I think the Raiders want to come out running the ball, knowing they can throw if they need to. And I think the Patriots may want to initially spread the Raiders out with their passing game and then work the running game.

Either way, time of possession will be critical, as will the receivers' ability to hold onto the ball. But for all the offense on both teams, the biggest factor will be defense. Which one will force turnovers and come up with the most big plays?

There may still be debate over whether or not Brady fumbled in last season's playoff game, but you can "tuck" defense away as the ultimate key on Sunday night.

A game analyst for ESPN's Sunday Night Football, former NFL QB Joe Theismann won a Super Bowl and a league MVP award.






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