Clayton 1st and 10

John Clayton

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Wednesday, November 13
Updated: November 15, 1:54 PM ET
 
First ... And 10: Taking to the air

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 11.

First ... New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders: For whatever reason, the Raiders can't escape the impact of last season's Tuck Rule in Foxboro.

Take the Monday night victory over the Broncos, for example. Mike Carey was the referee. Even though Carey wasn't involved in that AFC playoff game, the Raiders worried that calls would go against them because Carey's crew was the group of officials the team walked out on during a training camp meeting to explain rule changes this season.

Rich Gannon has thrown 19 TDs this season and only 7 INTs.
Carey, by the way, called a balanced game. No surprise there. Still, the Raiders fretted. Because of a four-game midseason losing streak, the Raiders don't have time to worry about the "tuck rule" any more. Their potential Super Bowl season could slip away with the next loss or two, and the Raiders need to extinguish that ghost Sunday night against the Patriots.

The Raiders did a lot of soul-searching last week and found that their best chance of winning is on the short-passing arm of Rich Gannon. It's ironic because the Patriots seem to be thinking the same thing with Tom Brady. The one difference is that the Raiders don't have to play cold-weather games down the stretch.

The temperature dropped below 32 degrees in the 34-10 victory over the Broncos on Monday night, but Gannon was hotter than ever. He completed 21 consecutive passes at one point. Charlie Garner caught one ruled out of bounds, but replays showed that he appeared to inbounds. If the officials had ruled that play differently, Gannon would have had 29 consecutive completions.

That's the interesting debate in this game. Both teams are doing the unconventional. The Raiders throw the ball 42 times a game and ignore the running game. They consider 3- and 4-yard passes running plays and aren't going to look back.

Brady works the 7-to-15 yards passes. They can go to a power running game with Antowain Smith, but they don't want to do that. Brady throws 41 passes a game, but he trails Gannon for accuracy. Gannon is a 70 percent passer. Brady is at 65.7.

But Brady has something that Gannon craves. He has the Super Bowl ring that Gannon coveted and felt robbed of because of the Tuck Rule controversy from the AFC playoffs.

The team that comes up with the best game plan to stop the short passing attack should be able to win this game, but team's have been trying to figure out the short-passing attack all season.

Both teams have a lot riding on this game, but the Raiders have more to lose. Their closing schedule is brutal. Their final seven games include teams that have records between 4-5 and 6-3. The Patriots follow this game by playing Minnesota and Detroit over an 11-day span. The worst case scenario is coming out with a 7-5 record and then a 10-day break before hitting the final four games of the season.

Just like they did against the Broncos, the Raiders will be looking at the stat that opponents are completing 62 percent of their passes against the Patriots and that the Patriots aren't coming up with interceptions. The Patriots have only nine interceptions in nine games.

The Raiders felt that the league robbed them of a championship because of the Tuck Rule, but a loss against the Patriots on Sunday could fumble away Oakland's second-half playoff run.

And 10. New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: Michael Vick left the Saints flatfooted in their first meeting three weeks ago. He passed for 195 and ran for 91 and left the Saints defenders confused. Saints coach Jim Haslett knows his team must tackle better. Having Dale Carter at cornerback is one aid. Carter is not only one of the best coverage cornerbacks in football, but he is a good tackler. With Carter, the Saints might be able to try more blitzes to put pressure on Vick. In the first quarter of the Falcons 37-35 victory, the Saints sacked Vick three times and then Vick started getting hot. Vick and his cousin, Aaron Brooks, vowed that the Saints-Falcons games are going to be exciting shootouts. Vick is establishing himself as one of the best young quarterbacks in comeback situations to enter the league in the past two decades. Brooks doesn't get gunshy when he falls behind. Even last week against the low-scoring Panthers, the Saints had to put on a fourth-quarter show to win the game. Brooks should be better in this game against the Falcons, who used a Bears-like 46 defense to pressure Brooks into more incompletions the last time these teams met. Brooks only hit on 16-of-35 passes against that Falcons pressure. The pressure, though, is on the Falcons to win if they want to stay in contention for the NFC South title. But if they lose, they still have a great chance of going for the wild card.

9. San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers still can't believe that they blew the chance to beat the Rams in St. Louis. It was the first time this season that they have blown a fourth-quarter lead. Those were the things coach Marty Schottenheimer has done a great job fixing. Now, the Chargers, facing a tough concluding schedule, have to worry that they might have a hard time getting to 10 wins after getting off to a 6-1 start. It's funny that the Chargers are playing the 49ers at a time in which San Francisco runs an offense that looks more like Schottenheimer's than Steve Mariucci's. Schottenheimer knows that running the football and playing good defense wins football games. Running the football -- if successful -- keeps opposing offenses off the field, and that's exactly what the 49ers are doing. Against high-scoring offenses such as the Raiders and Chiefs, the 49ers had two games in which they only had about eight possessions. The NFL average is 12½. The 49ers keep converting third downs because of Jeff Garcia's arm and feet, and whenever they need one tough yard they call on fullback Fred Beasley. The Chargers are tough against the run and may force Garcia into more passing situations.

8. Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: Mike Martz did the right thing in not rushing Kurt Warner back too early from his broken right pinkie. He gave the team until Thursday to rest for this Monday night game, so thinking that Warner could shake off the rust in three days would have been silly. Plus, Bulger has done a great job winning the past four games in relief. Because of injuries and a seven-game losing streak, everything is giving the Bears problems. On Tuesday, the Bears shook up the roster and decided to start bringing younger players off the practice squad. What the Rams need to do is come out early with touchdown drives and get the crowd into a frenzy. Bulger did a better job last week of getting the ball to Isaac Bruce, who responded with one of his best games of the season. Complicating matters is the absence of halfback Marshall Faulk, who has a tendon problem on one foot and an ankle injury. Faulk wants to play, but it would be advisable to rest. The Rams will need him in the final six games and they may be able to get by with the power running of rookie Lamar Gordon. The Bears are in such bad shape at quarterback that they don't know whether Chris Chandler or Jim Miller will be healthy by the end of the week.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: The Titans move to the AFC South robs the league of a great rivalry. These two teams are physical and love banging at each other. Now that the Titans have rebounded from a 1-4, this could be the preview of a playoff meeting between two potential division champions. The Titans are getting healthier. They may have Jevon Kearse back for his first game since the opener as a third-down pass rusher. Randall Godfrey may be back at middle linebacker after fighting a bad ankle injury for two months. The Steelers learned in the past two weeks that they can have a great running game with Amos Zereoue filling in for Jerome Bettis but the missing part is how physical Bettis is in the fourth quarter. Zereoue's game is being elusive not being physical. The Steelers couldn't wear down the Falcons defense last Sunday and allowed the Falcons to slip back from a 17-point deficit. It will be interesting to see how some of Jeff Fisher's schemes work against quarterback Tommy Maddox. It has been amazing how well Maddox has been getting the ball to wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who is averaging a staggering 17.1 yards per reception.

6. Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: For the past couple of games involving the Chiefs, everyone expected tons of points. That didn't happen against the Raiders and 49ers because each team used ball-possession offenses that kept the Chiefs offense on the sidelines. Well, that might not happen this week. The Bills are giving up 29.9 points a game. They aren't good at stopping teams with good offenses. That's good news for quarterback Trent Green, who wants to have another breakout game. Drew Bledsoe, meanwhile, has had a chance to rest after his great nine-game start and will try to pick on a defense that is last in the league giving up 425 yards a game. The Chiefs are surrendering 28.6 points a game. Tight end Tony Gonzalez left the Chiefs game against the 49ers angry because linebacker Julian Peterson was able to get away with some extra holding downfield on pass plays. The bigger problem for the Bills, though, is stopping Priest Holmes. Holmes constantly breaks tackles and were it not for two penalties that eliminated 55 rushing yards last Sunday, Holmes would have had another 100-yard rushing game.

5. Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: Despite being listed as doubtful, Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis is gearing up for his return from a partial shoulder separation against the Dolphins. Lewis tried to come back last week, but the shoulder wasn't ready. So he's lifted weights and returned to the practice field Wednesday. The Ravens need a big game from their defense because wide receiver Brandon Stokley is out and tight end Todd Heap is banged up. But the Dolphins don't want to hear any injury sob stories. They haven't won a game since Jay Fiedler broke his right thumb in the Sunday night victory over the Broncos a month ago. Ray Lucas is 0-3 filling in and there is no other option at this stage to stop the bleeding. The best case scenario is that Fiedler will be back in two games, but it's probably going to be three. Lucas is generating only 10 points a game for the offense. That's not enough. And the Ravens will be tougher to score on if Lewis is indeed back on the field. The Ravens are a hard-hitting defensive team. Sometimes, they seem to hit so hard in the first half of games that they tend to wear down in the second half. Still, this is a young unit that has overachieved and has gotten by with good play from a bunch of rookies. A Ravens upset would put them at 5-5. A Dolphins loss could drop them to 5-5 and put them on a stretch in which they may be 5-7 or 6-6 when Fielder is back.

4. New York Giants at Washington Redskins: Steve Spurrier admitted he learned something last week in Washington's loss to Jacksonville. He had Shane Matthews throw 50 passes, and the Redskins could only score seven points. Hasn't that been the Redskins offense this year. The Fun N' Gun isn't much fun. It's averaging only 18 points a game, mainly because of the lack of big-play talent. The offense has worked it's best when Stephen Davis is running the ball, and he will be back after a two-game break because of a knee injury. This may sound strange, though, but the Redskins may have more offensive weapons than the Giants. Injuries forced the Giants to put Ike Hilliard and Tim Carter on the injured reserve list, and quick Ron Dixon is out for two weeks. Amani Toomer is the only proven starter. Seventh-round choice Daryl Jones goes from the back of the roster to a starting job. With the Redskins being strong at cornerback with Champ Bailey and Fred Smoot, Giants quarterback Kerry Collins won't have much success going to the outside receivers and will have to take his chances in the middle of the field.

3. Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs had a well-timed bye week. It's allowed the offense to get better mentally and physically. Coach Jon Gruden wrestled with a running game that didn't have one back he could consistently call upon, so he plans to use what he calls a Robo-Back system. That means using Michael Pittman for some runs and pass receptions, and for some strong running plays with Mike Alstott. The bye week also allowed Keenan McCardell and Joe Jurevicius to bounce back from injuries. Even center Jeff Christy was able to have a knee operation and still be able to play. The Panthers, meanwhile, are fighting a six-game losing streak in which most of the games have been lost late. Quarterback Rodney Peete played well last week, but he has two injured fingers. What will hurt the Panthers is not having middle linebacker Dan Morgan, who is recovering from hernia surgery. This game should be low-scoring because the Bucs rank first in defense and the Panthers rank third.

2. Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: Despite having a bye, the Browns won't have Jamel White in the backfield because of a shoulder separation. Don't you feel sorry for Tim Couch? He's been around for four seasons but the team hasn't been able to get him a running game. Couch runs an offense similar to Peyton Manning's and Manning has trouble when he doesn't have a running game. Couch has gone his entire career without one. The Bengals, meanwhile, are just playing out the string. They are 1-8 and things have gotten so bad that they are sending offensive assistants on the road Saturdays to look at draft choices. This game is a little bit of a cash cow for the Bengals ownership but for all the wrong reasons. The game is a rare sellout in Cincinnati but that's because the Browns fans bought up the remaining tickets. So much for home-field advantage.

1. Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Believe it or not, the Packers can wrap up the NFC North title with a victory over the Vikings and a Lions loss. It's an interesting time for the Packers. They've been fighting injuries all season, so they have the luxury of resting players during the final month-and-a-half if they have the division locked up. No team has wrapped up a division this early, so it's going to be strange watching the Packers down the stretch. Their only games of importance will be Nov. 24 against the Bucs and Dec. 15 against the 49ers when they will be fighting for playoff tiebreakers in order to get home games during the playoffs. The Vikings may have a brewing quarterback controversy if Daunte Culpepper continues to struggle with mistakes. His college coach suggested that Culpepper be traded. Last week, coach Mike Tice benched Culpepper in the second half, but he came back and gave him the starting assignment for this game. Brett Favre, meanwhile, usually has problems in domed stadiums, so this might not be the easiest game for him in the Metrodome.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.








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